Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks, NBA Picks

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Chicago Bulls Moneyline is the pick, and the evidence that gets there is narrow but real. The Knicks carry the stronger profile on paper in the 2025-26 season, with a better offense, a far superior defense, and a dominant home record that makes them the obvious favorite. Jalen Brunson is the better scorer and the better playmaker, Brunson creates for others at a rate that Powell simply cannot match, and the Knicks protect the ball far better than the Bulls do. The strongest counterargument is exactly that picture, a complete New York team at Madison Square Garden against a shorthanded, out-of-form Chicago squad, and it is a real argument. What tips the formula despite that weight is the scoring conditions the Bulls walk into. The Knicks rank near the bottom of the league in shot-blocking, which opens the lane and the mid-range precisely where Norman Powell does his best work as a self-sufficient scorer. Chicago arrives without their center and thin up front, but their offense runs through perimeter scoring and free-throw attacks more than interior power, which is where the Knicks defense is at its softest. The weighted formula found enough of a seam on that side of the matchup to land on the Bulls, and the evidence backs that read.

The Over is the pick here, and the case for it builds from both sides of the court rather than just one. The Knicks are one of the more complete offensive units in the 2025-26 season, connecting from three at a rate near the top of the league and generating efficient scoring across the board, which means they will contribute meaningfully to a high-scoring game. The Bulls are one of the worst defensive teams in the league in the 2025-26 season, allowing more points than nearly every opponent and unable to consistently limit scoring, which is the single most important factor for the total in this matchup. The Knicks also rank near the bottom of the league in shot-blocking, a soft spot that gives Chicago avenues to generate offense even with a thinned-out frontcourt and a porous half-court defense of their own. Both teams have their primary scorer operating at similar field-goal efficiency rates, meaning the scoring floor on both ends is supported rather than concentrated in one direction. The strongest counterargument is that the Knicks rank among the best in the league at limiting scoring, which could keep the total in check by suppressing the Bulls' output. That concern is real, but the Bulls' defense is so permeable that New York's offensive production alone is capable of carrying the total, and when you add Chicago's ability to find offense through Powell at the line and in the mid-range against a poor shot-blocking defense, both sides of the ledger are pointing toward points.