Colorado Avalanche vs Chicago Blackhawks, NHL Picks

Colorado Avalanche

Chicago Blackhawks

Mon, Nov 2 · 8:00 PM ET · United Center

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from each team's real goal differential in ESPN's NHL standings.

Projected Moneyline

COL -335

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

6.1 Goals

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

COLCHI

3.63 (1st)

Goals

(T30th) 2.56

How many goals does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

33.7 (1st)

Shots

(32nd) 24.6

How many shots on goal does the team take per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

10.8% (19th)

Shooting %

(25th) 10.4%

How often do the team's shots on goal go in?

(League Avg: 11.1%)

17.1% (27th)

Power Play %

(29th) 16.9%

How often does the power play score?

(League Avg: 21.1%)

51.2% (8th)

Faceoff %

(31st) 46.0%

How often does the team win the faceoff?

(League Avg: 50.0%)

2.40 (1st)

Goals Allowed

(27th) 3.29

How many goals does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

26.1 (5th)

Shots Allowed

(31st) 30.0

How many shots on goal does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

91.4% (1st)

Save %

(16th) 89.6%

How often do the team's goalies stop a shot on goal?

(League Avg: 89.5%)

84.6% (1st)

Penalty Kill %

(2nd) 83.6%

How often does the penalty kill keep the other team off the board?

(League Avg: 78.9%)

12.7 (27th)

Blocked Shots

(28th) 12.4

How many shots does the team block per game?

(League Avg: 14.2 Blocks/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Avalanche's offense: Colorado has been among the most productive offenses in the league in the 2025-26 season, generating more shots than any other team and converting enough of them to score more goals than anyone else. Their power play is a clear weakness, sitting among the worst in the league, but even-strength production more than compensates.

Blackhawks' offense: Chicago has struggled badly on offense in the 2025-26 season, generating fewer shots than any other team and producing among the fewest goals in the league. Their power play is among the worst in the league, and they lose faceoffs at one of the highest rates in the league, leaving them very few reliable ways to manufacture sustained pressure.

Avalanche's defense: Colorado has been the best defensive team in the league in the 2025-26 season, allowing the fewest goals, finishing at the very top in save percentage, and operating the strongest penalty kill in the league. They also limit shot volume better than almost any other team, giving opponents very little to work with.

Blackhawks' defense: Chicago gives up far too many shots and goals, sitting among the worst teams in the league in both areas. Their penalty kill is genuinely one of the best in the league, a real bright spot, but it cannot offset the damage done at even strength.

Overall: Colorado enters this matchup with a clear advantage across nearly every area, and the most telling collision is their offense, which generates more pucks on net than anyone in the league, going up against a Chicago defense that cannot keep the puck out. Meanwhile, Blackhawks' offense, which struggles to generate any shot volume at all, runs directly into an Avalanche defensive unit that has allowed the fewest goals in the league in the 2025-26 season, leaving Chicago with very little margin to work with at home.

Goalie Matchup

The two starters in net, and how each has actually played.

Mackenzie Blackwood

G #39 · COL

Tier

Solid

Save %

.904

Goals Against Avg

2.50

Record

23-10-2

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

Spencer Knight

G #30 · CHI

Tier

Solid

Save %

.902

Goals Against Avg

2.82

Record

19-25-11

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

The Read

Avalanche's goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood was one of the more dependable goaltenders in the 2025-26 season, posting strong save rates and a low goals-against average across a meaningful run of starts. His winning record reflects both his individual play and a Colorado team that supported him consistently in front.

Blackhawks' goalie: Spencer Knight showed genuine competence in net for Chicago during the 2025-26 season, but his numbers land softer than Blackwood's across every key metric. The Blackhawks' struggles as a team are visible in his record and in a goals-against average that points to a defense that exposed him regularly.

The workload: Knight logged considerably more starts than Blackwood in the 2025-26 season, making his the larger and more extensive sample of the two. Both starts are confirmed, carrying no projection uncertainty.

Overall: Blackwood holds the clearer edge in this goalie matchup, with tighter efficiency built across a solid body of work. Knight is a capable starter, but his metrics trail in both save rate and goals allowed, and the team context around those numbers does not soften the gap. The advantage in net is genuine and favors Colorado.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

COLCHI

Rest

Standard preparation, 2 days rest.

Standard preparation, 3 days rest.

Form

2025-26 record 55-16-11 (home 26-9-6, road 29-7-5)

2025-26 record 29-39-14 (home 14-19-8, road 15-20-6)

InjuryKey Players

N. Roy (C) - OCT 26 · Day-To-Day

Z. L'Heureux (LW) - OCT 23 · Injured Reserve

B. Byram (D) - OCT 26 · Day-To-Day

The Read

Avalanche's availability: The Avalanche are missing a depth center on a day-to-day basis and have a winger on injured reserve, but neither represents a meaningful lineup loss. The core of Colorado's roster is intact.

Blackhawks' availability: Bowen Byram, one of Chicago's more capable defenders, is listed as day-to-day, and his absence would represent a genuine hit to their blue line. The rest of the Blackhawks' report is quiet.

Rest and form: Both teams arrive on standard preparation, with Chicago carrying a slight edge in days off. Each side has been inconsistent in recent outings, splitting their last several games, but the 2025-26 season records for these two clubs point in starkly different directions.

Overall: Colorado arrives as the considerably stronger side, backed by an outstanding 2025-26 season record and a road performance that has been among the best in the league. Chicago has shown some resilience with recent wins but the full-season picture reflects a club well below Colorado's level. Byram's availability introduces a modest variable on Chicago's defensive side, though it does not alter the fundamental gap between these two rosters.

Side Write-Up

Colorado's case on the moneyline comes down to a near-total structural advantage built across every area of the game. Their offense leads the league in shot generation and ranks at the top in goals scored during the 2025-26 season, and that firepower runs directly into a Chicago defense that gives up more shots and more goals than almost any other team in the league. On the other side of the puck, Colorado's defense has allowed the fewest goals in the league during the 2025-26 season, which is precisely the wall that Chicago's anemic offense, dead last in shot generation, has to try to crack. Mackenzie Blackwood holds a clear edge over Spencer Knight in both save rate and goals-against average, and the goaltending advantage compounds what is already a lopsided matchup at the skater level. Chicago plays at home, which is the genuine counterargument here, and the Blackhawks have shown enough recent resilience to win games, but their full-season record reflects a club operating well below Colorado's level in every measurable dimension. Byram's potential absence from Chicago's blue line adds a further wrinkle on the defensive side, though the fundamental gap exists with or without him. Colorado's road record has been among the best in the league during the 2025-26 season, and nothing about this matchup suggests the United Center changes the underlying arithmetic.

Final PickColorado Avalanche

Total Write-Up

The case for the under is built on what happens when Colorado's elite defense meets Chicago's broken offense, and that collision is about as one-sided as any on the schedule. Chicago generated fewer shots than any other team in the league during the 2025-26 season and produced among the fewest goals, and they now face a Colorado defensive unit that allowed the fewest goals in the league and limits shot volume better than almost any other team. Blackwood's numbers add another layer of suppression on Colorado's side, keeping Knight and the Blackhawks from needing to score many goals to stay in a game that the Avalanche's defense and goaltending will work to keep quiet. The honest counterargument is Colorado's offense, which is the most prolific in the league in terms of shots and goals during the 2025-26 season and could push the total higher on its own if it runs hot against a Chicago defense that cannot consistently keep the puck out. But Knight held competent numbers through a difficult season, Chicago's penalty kill is genuinely one of the best in the league, and Colorado's power play is one of the worst, which blunts the most dangerous version of the Avalanche attack. Both teams have been inconsistent in recent form, which introduces variance, but the structural picture is one of a low-scoring game driven by Colorado's defensive dominance rather than a shootout. The evidence points toward a game shaped more by suppression than by explosion, and that is the foundation the under sits on.

Final PickUnder

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