St. Louis Blues vs Detroit Red Wings, NHL Picks

St. Louis Blues

Detroit Red Wings

Sat, Oct 31 · 1:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

‹

Tools

Loading tools…

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from each team's real goal differential in ESPN's NHL standings.

Projected Moneyline

STL -120

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

6.0 Goals

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

STLDET

2.80 (24th)

Goals

(22nd) 2.91

How many goals does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

25.3 (29th)

Shots

(11th) 28.2

How many shots on goal does the team take per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

11.1% (17th)

Shooting %

(26th) 10.3%

How often do the team's shots on goal go in?

(League Avg: 11.1%)

17.6% (26th)

Power Play %

(12th) 22.6%

How often does the power play score?

(League Avg: 21.1%)

49.4% (19th)

Faceoff %

(11th) 51.0%

How often does the team win the faceoff?

(League Avg: 50.0%)

3.10 (T19th)

Goals Allowed

(T19th) 3.10

How many goals does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

27.7 (15th)

Shots Allowed

(16th) 27.7

How many shots on goal does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

89.3% (T19th)

Save %

(T17th) 89.5%

How often do the team's goalies stop a shot on goal?

(League Avg: 89.5%)

76.6% (25th)

Penalty Kill %

(23rd) 77.1%

How often does the penalty kill keep the other team off the board?

(League Avg: 78.9%)

13.6 (23rd)

Blocked Shots

(3rd) 15.9

How many shots does the team block per game?

(League Avg: 14.2 Blocks/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Blues' offense: The Blues are one of the lowest-volume shot teams in the league in the 2025-26 season, and their below-average scoring reflects it. Their power play ranks among the worst in the league, offering little upside when opponents take penalties.

Red Wings' offense: The Red Wings generate shots at a well above-average rate in the 2025-26 season, though they struggle to convert at a below-average clip. Their power play sits comfortably above the league midpoint, making it a genuine weapon on the man advantage.

Red Wings' defense: The Red Wings' defense gets a slight overall edge, built largely on shot-blocking that ranks among the very best in the league. Goaltending and penalty kill are both marginally better than the Blues, though neither team stands out at preventing goals.

Blues' defense: The Blues fall below the league average across most defensive categories in the 2025-26 season, with a penalty kill that sits near the bottom of the league. Their shot-blocking is also below average, leaving them further exposed whenever opponents have the man advantage.

Overall: The Red Wings hold the more complete profile in the 2025-26 season, with better shot generation, a stronger power play, and elite-tier shot-blocking anchoring their defense. The sharpest collision in this matchup is the Red Wings' above-average power play going up against one of the worst penalty kills in the league, a dynamic that gives Detroit a clear path to capitalizing if penalties are drawn.

Goalie Matchup

The two starters in net, and how each has actually played.

Joel Hofer

G #30 · STL

Tier

High-End

Save %

.910

Goals Against Avg

2.61

Record

24-13-5

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

John Gibson

G #36 · DET

Tier

Solid

Save %

.901

Goals Against Avg

2.72

Record

29-22-4

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

The Read

Blues' goalie: Joel Hofer was among the sharpest goaltenders in the league during the 2025-26 season, combining a high save rate with a tight goals against average and several shutouts. His numbers place him well above the average starting goalie in terms of genuine stopping power.

Red Wings' goalie: John Gibson was a dependable and capable starter for Detroit in the 2025-26 season, putting up respectable numbers across a heavy workload. He was not a liability in net, but he did not operate at the level Hofer did.

The workload: Gibson carried a considerably larger workload across the 2025-26 season, logging many more starts than Hofer. Both totals are substantial enough to reflect real, sustained performance rather than a small sample, and both starts are confirmed.

Overall: Hofer holds a clear edge in net based on the 2025-26 numbers, posting a better save rate and a tighter goals against average than Gibson across a meaningful body of work. The gap between them is real, not marginal. In a game where goaltending quality often determines the margin, Blues carry the stronger presence between the pipes.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

STLDET

Rest

Second night of a back to back, no rest since the last game.

Standard preparation, 2 days rest.

Form

2025-26 record 37-33-12 (home 20-14-7, road 17-19-5)

2025-26 record 41-31-10 (home 21-16-4, road 20-15-6)

InjuryKey Players

R. Johnston (LW) - OCT 19 · Injured Reserve

T. Krug (D) - OCT 13 · Injured Reserve

D. Dube (C) - OCT 10 · Injured Reserve

A. Toropchenko (RW) - OCT 5 · Injured Reserve

T. Tucker (D) - SEP 30 · Injured Reserve

D. Tarasov (G) - OCT 23 · Day-To-Day

S. Edvinsson (D) - OCT 14 · Injured Reserve

M. Appleton (C) - OCT 6 · Injured Reserve

M. Kasper (C) - OCT 6 · Injured Reserve

The Read

Blues' availability: St. Louis is carrying a meaningful injury list, with Torey Krug's absence a real loss for their blue line given how much he contributes offensively from the back end. Depth has also been trimmed across the forward group, leaving the roster leaner than ideal.

Red Wings' availability: Detroit's list is shorter, though a goaltender listed as day-to-day introduces some uncertainty around their crease heading into the game. The remaining absences fall in less critical areas.

Rest and form: The Blues are closing out a back-to-back with no recovery time between games, while the Red Wings are coming in with a full preparation window. In the 2025-26 season, both clubs have been fairly even in recent results, but Detroit has posted a stronger home record than St. Louis has managed on the road.

Overall: The Red Wings enter this game in the clearer real-world position, combining fresh legs with a healthier roster and a home ledger that holds up well in the 2025-26 season. St. Louis is managing both the cumulative toll of back-to-back travel and meaningful absences on defense and up front. The gap in readiness on this particular night points toward Detroit as the side in better shape.

Side Write-Up

Detroit holds the more complete profile on paper and the clearer real-world edge on the night, and that combination is what drives the moneyline call. The Red Wings generate shots at a well above-average rate, own a power play that sits comfortably above the league midpoint, and lean on shot-blocking that ranks among the very best in the league. St. Louis brings a below-average offense, one of the worst penalty kills in the league, and a blue line that has lost Torey Krug, the player most responsible for anything the Blues can generate from the back end. Detroit also enters with full rest and a stronger home record in the 2025-26 season, while the Blues are closing out a back-to-back with no recovery window. The sharpest counterargument is Joel Hofer, who was genuinely elite in the 2025-26 season and represents a real equalizer in net. But one goaltender carrying the full weight of a depleted roster, a weakened penalty kill, and the accumulated fatigue of back-to-back travel is being asked to do too much, and the structure of this matchup points toward Detroit finding a way through.

Final PickDetroit Red Wings

Total Write-Up

The case for the under is built on the collision between two specific factors: an elite goaltender on one side and a team on the other that cannot generate volume. Joel Hofer was among the sharpest starters in the league in the 2025-26 season, posting a high save rate and a tight goals against average over a meaningful body of work, and a Blues team missing Krug and carrying forward depth losses is not the group to pepper him. John Gibson was a capable and dependable starter for Detroit in the 2025-26 season, not a liability, and the Blues ranked among the lowest-volume shot teams in the league with below-average scoring to match. Both offenses face real resistance, and neither projects as a high-event unit on this surface. The strongest counterargument is Detroit's power play running into one of the worst penalty kills in the league, a dynamic that could manufacture cheap goals quickly and push the total upward. That matchup is real and cannot be dismissed, but the combination of Hofer's stopping ability, the Blues' low offensive ceiling, and Detroit's below-average conversion rate suggests the power play advantage is more likely to produce a goal than a flood, and the overall scoring environment still leans compressed.

Final PickUnder

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.