DraftKings Put $300 Million Into Sports Prediction Markets. Everyone Else Bought Insurance.
The NBA and NFL won't sign a prediction market deal on their own games. FanDuel handed its version to a partner instead of building one. DraftKings raised its own bet alone, with no way out written into the deal.
Written by DraftKings is putting up to $300 million of its own money into sports prediction markets this year. Ask the NBA or the NFL for a deal on those same contracts. The contracts trade on their own games. Neither league will sign.
That is not a small bet. DraftKings Predictions signed up over 600,000 users in 2026. Yearly volume went from $2.3 billion in April to $11 billion in July. That is close to five times more in three months. CEO Jason Robins said growth beat what the firm hoped for.
Look at who's actually hedging
FanDuel did not build its own exchange. It teamed up with CME Group in December 2025. It added a second partner, Crypto.com's OG Prediction Markets, in June. The product hedges too. FanDuel Predicts drops its sports bets from a state the moment that state allows real sports betting. The firm running it does not treat this setup as built to last.
CME is the exchange that makes FanDuel's sports contracts legal at all. Its own new boss says the firm wants to go slow on sports contracts. That is the exchange behind FanDuel's product. It is telling reporters it is not sold on the part it built.
Then look at the leagues. MLB signed with Polymarket. The NHL signed with both Kalshi and Polymarket in October 2025. Some teams went further still. The Mets signed with Novig. The Yankees signed with Polymarket. The Blackhawks signed with Kalshi. The NBA and NFL are the two richest leagues in the US. Both have sold sportsbook deals for years. Neither has signed one prediction market deal yet.
The NBA is in talks with both Kalshi and Polymarket and reportedly wants a deal closed before its season starts. The NFL has held its own talks and is advising the CFTC on the rules it wants, but has stayed out of any partnership. Its stated concern isn't the gambling-or-swap fight tying up courts. It's simpler: a contract on something like a missed field goal or a coaching change is exactly the kind of detail that can leak or get manipulated before the public knows it's coming.
Our read: that gap isn't coincidence. Every party close to this space except DraftKings has built itself a way out. FanDuel's product is designed to disappear from a state on its own. CME's own leadership says it wants to go slow. Even the leagues that signed wrote a clause into the paperwork voiding the deal if courts eventually rule against the platforms. Compare that to how fast these same leagues moved on sportsbook deals once PASPA fell in 2018. They didn't wait for court certainty then. They're waiting for it now.
This split matters past one earnings call. Say DraftKings wins this bet with no real fight. It becomes the top sports prediction market name first. FanDuel and the rest would have to catch up on its terms. Say it loses instead. DraftKings is the one holding the loss. It has no partner and no way out.
Where we could be wrong
Leagues are conservative by nature, and slow doesn't automatically mean scared. The NBA and NFL could just be running their normal, deliberate process, the same one that eventually got them to sportsbook deals too, just compressed into months instead of years because the money and the pressure to decide before the season are both bigger now. DraftKings' bet is also still young. Nothing here proves the company is right, only that it's the one player willing to move first without a hedge. If the NBA closes a deal with Kalshi or Polymarket before its October 20 opener, that's evidence the leagues were moving at a normal pace, not stalling out of specific fear. If the NFL stays silent through its own kickoff too, that reads differently: the leagues' own view of the legal risk running ahead of DraftKings' bet on it.