Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB Picks

Chicago Cubs

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tue, Aug 25 · 9:40 PM ET · Chase Field

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CHC @ ARI

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CHC

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Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

CHCARI

5.2 (T1st)

Runs

(T10th) 4.5

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.762 (1st)

OPS

(15th) 0.719

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

33.9% (1st)

OBP

(T11th) 31.8%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.8%)

0.423 (3rd)

SLG

(T16th) 0.401

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.400 SLG)

174 (4th)

(T26th) 129

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 150 HR)

8.5 (T5th)

Hits

(T13th) 8.2

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.0% (7th)

AVG

(T13th) 24.5%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

99 (10th)

(T14th) 89

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 88 SB)

4.3 (T11th)

Runs Allowed

(T17th) 4.5

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.12 (T14th)

ERA

(18th) 4.18

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.16 ERA)

1.26 (T10th)

WHIP

(T12th) 1.29

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.30 WHIP)

7.73 (26th)

K/9

(30th) 6.90

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

196 (29th)

HR Allowed

(T19th) 153

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 150 HR)

8.2 (T17th)

Hits Allowed

(T22nd) 8.5

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.4% (17th)

BAA

(T23rd) 25.2%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.3%)

99.0% (T1st)

FLD%

(T1st) 99.0%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.5%)

Matchup Breakdown

In offense, Chicago has a clear advantage in runs per game, OPS, and on base percentage. In defense, Chicago has a slight advantage in runs allowed per game, WHIP, and strikeouts per nine innings. Despite Arizona having the edge in home runs allowed.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Clay Holmes

RIGHTY · CHC

Rank

#1 · Top Starter

Record

5-6

ERA

2.49

CHC vs Righties

(Season)

51-42

CHC vs Righties

(Season OPS)

16th of 30

CHC vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

5th of 30

Brandon Pfaadt

RIGHTY · ARI

Rank

#2 · High-End

Record

7-1

ERA

3.39

ARI vs Righties

(Season)

46-51

ARI vs Righties

(Season OPS)

1st of 30

ARI vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

5th of 30

The Read

Cubs send out their top starter, Clay Holmes, who has been a starter with a 2.49 ERA this season. On the other side, Diamondbacks answer with their high-end starter, Brandon Pfaadt, who has been a starter with a 3.39 ERA this season. We'll lean on the better pitcher here, Clay Holmes gets the edge.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

CHCARI

Bullpen

3.80 ERA

(9th of 30)

4.13 ERA

(16th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.

Rest

Had a rest day before this trip.

Home for several days.

No major travel concerns.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

J. Steele (SP) - AUG 24

P. Maton (RP) - AUG 19

G. Hollowell (RP) - AUG 19

B. Brown (RP) - AUG 19

R. Martin (RP) - AUG 19

H. Harvey (RP) - AUG 19

M. Shaw (RF) - AUG 17

D. Swanson (SS) - AUG 17

E. Cabrera (SP) - AUG 17

S. Miller (RP) - AUG 9

H. Milner (RP) - JUL 30

P. Hodge (RP) - MAY 8

C. Horton (SP) - MAY 8

T. Austin (1B) - MAY 8

T. Troy (LF) - AUG 24

M. Soroka (SP) - AUG 24

K. Marte (2B) - AUG 24

L. Gurriel Jr. (LF) - AUG 23

C. Burnes (SP) - AUG 22

Z. Gallen (SP) - AUG 22

R. Nelson (SP) - AUG 22

B. Walston (SP) - AUG 13

R. Thompson (RP) - AUG 13

A. Puk (RP) - AUG 7

A. Saalfrank (RP) - JUL 18

C. Mena (RP) - JUN 1

The Read

Arizona's bullpen is in much better shape right now. Rest-wise, both teams are in a similar spot. The edge in team conditions goes to Arizona.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

106°F

Chase Field

Open Air

Ballpark: Strong Hitter-Friendly (4th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Hot air adds significant carry (~6+ ft on fly balls) — Strong Hitter Advantage

Wind: 5mph Crosswind to Right Field → Neutral

Side Write-Up

The pitching matchup is the clearest signal in this game, and it points to Chicago. Clay Holmes carries a 2.49 ERA as a starter this season, a genuinely elite mark, and he gets the edge over Brandon Pfaadt (3.39 ERA) without much debate. Chicago also shows a real advantage in runs per game, OPS, and on-base percentage, so the offense behind Holmes is built to produce. On the defensive side, the Cubs edge Arizona in runs allowed per game, WHIP, and strikeouts per nine, which reinforces the picture of a team that limits damage on both sides of the ball. The honest counterargument here is Arizona's bullpen: it is in meaningfully better shape right now, and if Holmes gets into trouble early, that gap becomes a real problem for Chicago late. But Holmes's ERA advantage is substantial enough that he is the single biggest lever in this game, and Chicago's lineup is positioned to out-score Arizona even if the pen situation stays uneven. The superior starter plus the across-the-board offensive edge tips the balance.

Final PickChicago

Total Write-Up

Two quality starters on the mound is the simplest reason to lean under, and in this game the top-line numbers back that up. Holmes at 2.49 ERA is suppressing opposing lineups consistently this season, and Pfaadt at 3.39 is no slouch either. Chicago holds advantages in WHIP and strikeouts per nine innings, which signals that run-suppression is baked into how this team is built, not just a one-game result. Arizona's bullpen being in better shape than Chicago's actually adds another layer of run prevention for the home side, keeping the total from ballooning in the later innings even if the Cubs bullpen is a question mark. The one real counterargument is Chicago's offense: this lineup ranks ahead of Arizona in OPS and on-base percentage, meaning the Cubs have the tools to post a big number if Pfaadt struggles. But Holmes's ERA makes it hard to project Arizona scoring freely in return, and both rotations entering this game healthy keeps the scoring ceiling lower than the total implies. The overall defensive profile of this matchup leans quiet.

Final PickUnder 8

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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