St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies, MLB Picks

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St. Louis Cardinals

Colorado Rockies

Sun, Sep 6 · 3:10 PM ET · Coors Field

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Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

STLCOL

4.4 (T16th)

Runs

(7th) 4.7

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.696 (25th)

OPS

(4th) 0.737

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.718 OPS)

31.5% (T18th)

OBP

(T8th) 32.3%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.8%)

0.381 (27th)

SLG

(4th) 0.414

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.400 SLG)

143 (21st)

(T18th) 152

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 157 HR)

8.1 (T18th)

Hits

(T4th) 8.6

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.0% (20th)

AVG

(T4th) 25.2%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.3%)

87 (17th)

(14th) 94

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 93 SB)

4.5 (T16th)

Runs Allowed

(T29th) 5.7

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.23 (20th)

ERA

(30th) 5.49

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.16 ERA)

1.34 (T20th)

WHIP

(30th) 1.52

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.30 WHIP)

7.94 (24th)

K/9

(29th) 6.96

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

138 (8th)

HR Allowed

(27th) 187

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 157 HR)

8.6 (T24th)

Hits Allowed

(30th) 10.1

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.3% (25th)

BAA

(30th) 28.8%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.3%)

98.8% (T4th)

FLD%

(T26th) 98.2%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.5%)

Matchup Breakdown

St. Louis's offense: One of the weaker offenses in the league when it comes to slugging and getting on base, with below-average contact production across the board. They score enough to stay in games but rarely punish pitchers the way dangerous lineups do.

Colorado's offense: One of the better offenses in the league, ranking near the top in contact rate, on-base ability, and slugging. They score consistently and make opposing pitchers work for every out.

St. Louis's pitching: Clearly the stronger staff in this matchup, though still a below-average group by league standards. Their defense is among the best in baseball, helping them clean up when pitchers do surrender contact.

Colorado's pitching: One of the worst staffs in the league by virtually every measure, giving up more runs, more hits, and more baserunners than nearly any other team. Opponents get on base and score against this group with regularity.

Overall: Colorado wins the offensive side of this matchup convincingly, and their lineup has the profile to do real damage against a St. Louis staff that struggles to miss bats and gives up a lot of contact. The problem is that Colorado's pitching is a serious liability against any offense, and even a below-average St. Louis lineup gets plenty of chances to score. St. Louis's much stronger pitching and excellent defense give them the more complete picture, making this a game where Colorado's bats and Colorado's pitching are effectively working against each other.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Michael McGreevy

RIGHTY · STL

Rank

#2 · High-End

Record

5-9

ERA

3.86

STL vs Righties

(Season)

44-51

STL vs Righties

(Season OPS)

4th of 30

STL vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

6th of 30

Tanner Gordon

RIGHTY · COL

Rank

#2 · High-End

Record

1-4

ERA

5.38

COL vs Righties

(Season)

37-59

COL vs Righties

(Season OPS)

25th of 30

COL vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

17th of 30

The Read

St. Louis's starter: McGreevy has operated as a reliable, contact-inducing arm all season, keeping the ball in the park and limiting the kind of multi-run explosions that sink starts. He is not a swing-and-miss weapon at the top of the craft, but he pitches efficiently, does not beat himself, and has held his ERA at a functional level despite a losing record that traces to run support more than his own performance.

Colorado's starter: Gordon has been a fly-ball pitcher in the worst possible sense this year, surrendering hard contact and home runs at an alarming rate. His ERA reflects a consistent inability to keep opposing lineups from doing real damage, and Coors Field amplifies exactly the kind of mistakes he has been making.

The lineups: St. Louis has been one of the sharper offenses in the league against right-handed pitching this season, and that form has carried into recent weeks as well, putting them in a strong spot against Gordon's profile tonight. Colorado, by contrast, has been one of the weaker lineups against righties all year, and while they have shown some marginal improvement in that split more recently, they remain well below average as a unit.

Overall: The mound edge belongs firmly to St. Louis tonight, and the lineup matchups reinforce it rather than complicate it. McGreevy, a contact-manager who limits the long ball, draws a Colorado offense that has consistently struggled to produce against right-handed pitching. Gordon, a fly-ball arm with a tendency to give up hard contact, draws one of the better right-handed-pitching offenses in the league, which is about as unfavorable a pairing as his profile can face.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

STLCOL

Bullpen

4.49 ERA

(24th of 30)

4.76 ERA

(26th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

Extra innings last night with no day off.

No travel concerns.

Very little time to recover.

InjuryKey Players

J. Wetherholt (2B) - AUG 30

B. Jordan (3B) - AUG 28

A. Pallante (SP) - AUG 28

E. Pereira (RF) - AUG 28

M. Winn (SS) - AUG 28

H. Dobbins (SP) - AUG 27

P. Strzelecki (RP) - AUG 27

M. Rajcic (RP) - JUL 23

R. Feltner (SP) - AUG 29

J. Quintana (SP) - AUG 29

K. Karros (3B) - AUG 29

K. Freeland (SP) - AUG 24

C. Dollander (SP) - JUN 23

W. Herrera (RP) - JUN 2

M. Brown (SP) - MAY 31

R. Petit (RP) - MAY 8

P. Ohl (RP) - MAY 8

K. Bryant (DH) - MAY 8

The Read

St. Louis's bullpen: A below-average unit leaguewide, though the closer is rested and the back end is intact. One setup arm may be limited and the long reliever is off the table, so the manager is already leaning harder on middle relief than he would like.

Colorado's bullpen: Ranks among the weaker groups in baseball and comes in with similar depth problems, a long reliever who is likely unavailable and middle relief being stretched. Their setup corps is fresh, which is a relative advantage, but the overall quality of the group is a liability.

Rest: St. Louis comes in well-rested with no travel fatigue in play. Colorado played deep into extra innings the night before with no recovery day, leaving their roster running on fumes and their manager with fewer moves to make.

Injuries: Colorado is carrying a significantly heavier injury burden, especially in the rotation, with Feltner, Quintana, Freeland, and Dollander all out as key arms, compounding the strain on an already taxed bullpen. Karros and Bryant are additional meaningful absences from the lineup. St. Louis has notable holes too, with Wetherholt, Winn, Pallante, and Dobbins all missing, but the list is shorter and less concentrated at one position.

Overall: The conditions lean clearly toward St. Louis tonight. Colorado is physically depleted after extra innings, their rotation is in rough shape from injuries, and their bullpen is both below average and already strained. St. Louis is rested, carries a lighter injury load, and brings a comparatively more stable relief situation into the game.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

89°F

Coors Field

Open Air

Ballpark: Strong Hitter-Friendly (1st of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Warm air adds carry (~3 ft on fly balls) — Favors Hitters

Wind: 3mph Blowing to Left Field → Neutral

The Read

Ballpark: Coors Field ranks among the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball, where thin altitude air saps movement off breaking balls and sends fly balls sailing further than they would anywhere else. Pitchers who look sharp in other parks routinely get exposed here, and run totals reflect it.

Weather: Warm air tonight adds extra carry to well-struck balls, compounding what the altitude already provides for hitters. The wind is minimal and blowing toward left field, making it a non-factor in either direction.

Overall: Colorado's offense is a legitimate power unit at home in this park, and tonight's conditions amplify that advantage. St. Louis grades out as a below-average offensive club, so the park lift matters considerably more for the Rockies than the Cardinals. Between the venue and the warm air, the environment leans toward the over.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 6

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 6

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

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