Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB Picks

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Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tue, Sep 8 · 10:10 PM ET · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

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Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

CINLAD

4.1 (T24th)

Runs

(T4th) 4.9

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.701 (24th)

OPS

(3rd) 0.756

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

30.7% (28th)

OBP

(3rd) 33.5%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.394 (23rd)

SLG

(3rd) 0.421

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.400 SLG)

183 (5th)

(T8th) 169

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 159 HR)

7.6 (29th)

Hits

(T2nd) 8.7

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

22.8% (T29th)

AVG

(2nd) 25.7%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

93 (T15th)

(28th) 55

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 94 SB)

4.9 (T24th)

Runs Allowed

(T2nd) 3.8

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.66 (T26th)

ERA

(5th) 3.69

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.17 ERA)

1.42 (28th)

WHIP

(2nd) 1.16

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

8.17 (22nd)

K/9

(4th) 9.28

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

179 (25th)

HR Allowed

(16th) 156

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 159 HR)

8.6 (T24th)

Hits Allowed

(1st) 7.2

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.2% (24th)

BAA

(1st) 21.8%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.4% (T19th)

FLD%

(T2nd) 98.9%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.5%)

Matchup Breakdown

Cincinnati's offense: One of the league's least productive lineups for making contact and getting on base, relying on bursts of power rather than sustained rally-building. The home run total is a genuine weapon, but the Reds struggle to string together enough baserunners to cash in consistently.

Los Angeles's offense: One of the most complete and dangerous lineups in baseball, ranking near the very top in getting on base, generating hits, and crossing the plate. They pressure pitchers across every spot in the order, not just through one or two threats.

Los Angeles's pitching: Among the very best in the league at limiting hits, controlling the walk column, and keeping runs off the board, with a strikeout rate well above average and one of the sharpest fielding units in the game behind them.

Cincinnati's pitching: One of the weaker staffs in the league, consistently giving up hits and free passes at a high rate and ranking near the bottom in limiting earned runs. Opposing hitters have made steady contact against Cincinnati pitchers all season.

Overall: Los Angeles has a more complete team on both sides, and the sharpest collision in this matchup puts a Dodgers pitching staff that leads the league in suppressing hits directly against a Reds lineup that ranks near the very bottom in making contact and reaching base. Cincinnati's power keeps the threat real on any given swing, but their inability to manufacture baserunners makes it difficult to sustain pressure against a rotation this precise.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Nick Lodolo

LEFTY · CIN

Rank

#4 · Back-End

Record

3-3

ERA

5.08

CIN vs Lefties

(Season)

15-18

CIN vs Lefties

(Season OPS)

3rd of 30

CIN vs Lefties

(L20 OPS)

16th of 30

Tarik Skubal

LEFTY · LAD

Rank

#4 · Back-End

Record

8-7

ERA

2.84

LAD vs Lefties

(Season)

24-20

LAD vs Lefties

(Season OPS)

24th of 30

LAD vs Lefties

(L20 OPS)

30th of 30

The Read

Cincinnati's starter: Nick Lodolo has been a hittable, homer-prone arm this season, with command problems showing up in his walk totals and the volume of hard contact opponents have generated against him. He is the kind of back-end starter who gives opposing lineups real opportunities to do damage.

Los Angeles's starter: Tarik Skubal has pitched like one of the better arms in the league this season, combining elite strikeout numbers with sharp command and a ground-ball lean that keeps big innings off the board. He profiles as a genuine difference-maker regardless of where he sits on the roster.

The lineups: Cincinnati has been one of the stronger lineups against left-handed pitching on the season, though their production against southpaws has cooled to a middle-of-the-pack level over the last few weeks. Los Angeles has been among the weakest offenses against lefties all year and recently has been the least productive in baseball against that hand, which is the clearest and most pressing weakness on the board tonight.

Overall: The mound edge belongs clearly to Los Angeles. Skubal's combination of swing-and-miss stuff, tight command, and ground-ball tendencies is a punishing profile for a Cincinnati lineup that has been fading against left-handed pitching lately. Lodolo's tendency to issue free passes and allow hard contact is a dangerous fit against any lineup willing to grind an at-bat, and Los Angeles, despite its struggles against lefties as a unit, has enough individual pieces to make him pay for those mistakes.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

CINLAD

Bullpen

4.68 ERA

(25th of 30)

3.95 ERA

(11th of 30)

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

Closer is rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Middle relief has been used a bit.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever is available if needed.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

E. Suarez (DH) - SEP 1

K. Hayes (3B) - AUG 28

G. Ashcraft (RP) - AUG 27

M. Toglia (1B) - AUG 24

S. Steer (1B) - AUG 22

H. Greene (SP) - AUG 13

B. Dunn (CF) - AUG 6

K. Bubic (SP) - SEP 2

E. Diaz (RP) - SEP 1

B. Treinen (RP) - SEP 1

R. Sasaki (SP) - AUG 27

G. Stone (SP) - AUG 27

J. Cousins (RP) - AUG 23

A. Pages (CF) - AUG 23

W. Klein (RP) - AUG 21

B. Miller (SP) - AUG 18

B. Casparius (RP) - AUG 2

B. Graterol (RP) - JUN 1

The Read

Cincinnati's bullpen: One of the weaker relief corps in the league, and with a setup arm potentially limited tonight, the middle innings could get thin. The closer should be available, but the depth behind him is a real concern.

Los Angeles's bullpen: A solidly above-average group by ERA, with a rested closer and the core arms in decent shape. The long reliever is likely unavailable, and middle relief has been leaned on heavily, so the back end of a tight game could get complicated.

Rest: Both clubs arrive equally rested with no travel fatigue in the equation, so this category is a complete wash.

Injuries: Los Angeles is carrying a striking number of pitching absences, with Sasaki and Bubic out of the rotation, Klein and several other relievers sidelined, and Pages missing from the outfield. Cincinnati is also shorthanded in meaningful ways, with Suarez, Hayes, and Steer gone from the everyday lineup and Greene unavailable in the rotation, but the sheer volume of LA's pitching losses is the more damaging situation.

Overall: The conditions lean toward Cincinnati despite their weaker bullpen ERA on paper, because LA's pitching staff is quietly undermanned by injury in ways the headline numbers do not fully capture. Cincinnati's lineup is thinned out, but LA's depth in both the rotation and relief corps is genuinely compromised tonight. This is not a decisive edge, but the injury picture gives Cincinnati the better of the conditions.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

72°F

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Open Air

Ballpark: Slightly Pitcher-Friendly (19th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Little effect on carry either way in this range — Neutral

Wind: 0mph Calm → Neutral

The Read

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium plays slightly below average for run scoring, giving pitchers a modest structural edge over a truly neutral setting. It is not a suppression fortress, but it quietly trims offensive upside compared to a league-average park.

Weather: Tonight's temperature falls in a range where it does nothing meaningful to ball carry in either direction, and the air is completely still, so there is no wind factor working for or against hitters.

Overall: Park and weather together produce a mildly pitcher-friendly baseline with no environmental boost to offset it, which nudges the conditions toward the under side of the total. Los Angeles is one of the sharper offensive clubs in the league, ranking near the top in slugging and overall production, so they carry the most credible scoring threat of the two sides. Cincinnati brings genuine home run pop but grades out near the bottom of the league in overall offense, making them more reliant on the long ball in a setting that offers no carry help.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 8

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 8

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

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