Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals, MLB Picks

Washington Nationals

St. Louis Cardinals

Sun, Sep 20 · 2:15 PM ET · Busch Stadium

‹›

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

STL -110

Projected Total

9.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

WSHSTL

5.1 (3rd)

Runs

(T8th) 4.6

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.749 (3rd)

OPS

(26th) 0.702

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

32.3% (7th)

OBP

(T13th) 31.7%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.426 (2nd)

SLG

(27th) 0.385

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

198 (4th)

(22nd) 157

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 172 HR)

8.5 (7th)

Hits

(T14th) 8.2

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.8% (T9th)

AVG

(T16th) 24.3%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

166 (1st)

(17th) 95

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 101 SB)

5.1 (27th)

Runs Allowed

(T19th) 4.6

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.74 (27th)

ERA

(21st) 4.29

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.19 ERA)

1.39 (T26th)

WHIP

(T21st) 1.35

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

7.97 (25th)

K/9

(24th) 8.00

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

203 (T27th)

HR Allowed

(4th) 149

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 172 HR)

8.6 (T24th)

Hits Allowed

(T24th) 8.6

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.4% (T24th)

BAA

(T24th) 25.4%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.2% (T28th)

FLD%

(T4th) 98.8%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

Washington's offense: Washington carries one of the most productive offenses in baseball, combining top-tier power, a high-octane running game that leads the entire league, and consistent on-base production. They rank near the top in almost every meaningful offensive category.

St. Louis's offense: St. Louis scores at a respectable rate but does it with very little power, sitting near the bottom of the league in slugging and home run production. They get by on contact and stringing hits together rather than big swings.

St. Louis's pitching: St. Louis's staff has been unusually strong at keeping the ball in the yard, ranking among the best in baseball at suppressing home runs, and their defense is one of the cleanest and most sure-handed in the league. Their overall pitching numbers are middling, but the combination of homer prevention and solid fielding makes them genuinely difficult to punish in bunches.

Washington's pitching: Washington's pitching is one of the weakest rotations in the league, ranking near the bottom in runs allowed, baserunners allowed, and home runs surrendered. The defense behind them is also among the worst in baseball, which compounds every mistake a pitcher makes.

Overall: The defining collision here is Washington's power-heavy offense running directly into a St. Louis staff built around keeping balls in the park, which is exactly where Washington does most of its damage. St. Louis is the more complete team when you factor in pitching and defense. Washington's offensive upside is real, but their pitching gives St. Louis a clear path to winning even without their offense doing anything special.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Jackson Kent

LEFTY · WSH

Rank

#6 · Back-End

Record

1-4

ERA

6.59

WSH vs Lefties

(Season)

24-21

WSH vs Lefties

(Season OPS)

26th of 30

WSH vs Lefties

(L20 OPS)

19th of 30

WSH’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Quinn Mathews

LEFTY · STL

Rank

#4 · Back-End

Record

1-3

ERA

4.11

STL vs Lefties

(Season)

26-20

STL vs Lefties

(Season OPS)

3rd of 30

STL vs Lefties

(L20 OPS)

1st of 30

STL’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

Washington's starter: Jackson Kent is a back-end lefty who has been among the more hittable pitchers in his rotation this season, relying on a ground-ball approach that has not kept enough hitters off base. The results have been difficult to overlook.

St. Louis's starter: Quinn Mathews is also a back-end lefty, but he has pitched to a noticeably cleaner line as a fly-ball arm who does a better job limiting baserunners. He is a meaningfully more functional version of the same profile.

The lineups: St. Louis has been one of the sharper offenses in the league against left-handed pitching all season and has been outright the best against that hand over the past month, making Kent's assignment a difficult one. Washington has been one of the weaker offensive units against lefties this year and has shown only modest improvement in recent games, which names the clearer liability on the hitting side.

Overall: The edge belongs to St. Louis on both ends of this matchup tonight. Mathews is the more reliable arm by a clear margin, and he is drawing a Washington lineup that has consistently struggled to produce against left-handed pitching. Kent faces the opposite situation, squaring off against a Cardinals offense that has been punishing southpaws all season and is currently playing its best baseball against this hand of any team in the league.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

WSHSTL

Bullpen

5.14 ERA

(29th of 30)

4.58 ERA

(24th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Middle relief has been used a bit.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

M. Waldron (RP) - SEP 12

H. Ford (C) - SEP 11

C. Early (SP) - SEP 10

D. Millas (C) - SEP 10

O. Ribalta (RP) - SEP 8

J. Gray (SP) - SEP 4

D. Herz (SP) - AUG 21

P. Poulin (RP) - AUG 2

M. Parker (RP) - JUL 30

K. Waldichuk (RP) - JUN 11

J. Fermin (LF) - SEP 13

P. Strzelecki (RP) - SEP 8

J. Wetherholt (2B) - SEP 8

H. Dobbins (SP) - SEP 3

B. Jordan (3B) - AUG 28

E. Pereira (RF) - AUG 28

M. Rajcic (RP) - JUL 23

The Read

Washington's bullpen: This is one of the worst relief units in baseball right now, and the manager has been leaning heavily on middle relief, which is a concern if the starter exits early. The long reliever is also likely unavailable, leaving the back end of the staff thin.

St. Louis's bullpen: Below average overall but meaningfully better than Washington's, with most arms rested. One setup reliever could be limited and the long reliever is likely unavailable, but the core of the unit is intact.

Rest: Both teams are equally well situated here, each having been home for several days with no travel burden. Rest is a complete non-factor tonight.

Injuries: Washington carries the heavier load, with multiple key bullpen arms gone including Waldron, Early, Ribalta, Poulin, and Parker, gutting both the rotation depth and relief options. St. Louis is missing Fermin, Wetherholt, and Dobbins, which hurts the lineup and rotation depth but leaves the bullpen more intact.

Overall: Conditions lean toward St. Louis tonight. Washington's bullpen is in rough shape on paper and even rougher in practice with so many key arms unavailable, while St. Louis has a functional if imperfect relief unit and a healthier roster. The rest situation offers neither side an edge, so the bullpen and injury gaps are the real story here.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

97°F

Busch Stadium

Open Air

Ballpark: Slightly Pitcher-Friendly (20th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Hot air adds significant carry (~6+ ft on fly balls) — Strong Hitter Advantage

Wind: 5mph Blowing Out → Neutral

The Read

Ballpark: Busch Stadium plays as a modest run suppressor, sitting in the lower half of the league in overall scoring environment. It leans slightly toward pitchers but will not dramatically neutralize a potent offense on its own.

Weather: Tonight's heat is adding meaningful extra carry to fly balls, giving power hitters a real atmospheric boost. The light outfield wind is essentially negligible, so temperature is the sole weather variable shaping conditions.

Overall: The heat benefit is unevenly distributed here, because Washington brings one of the most dangerous power lineups in the league while St. Louis ranks near the bottom in both home run output and slugging. The Cardinals simply do not have the fly-ball power to fully exploit what tonight's air is offering, whereas Washington profiles to take direct advantage of the carry boost. The park's mild pitcher lean provides some counterweight, but with Washington's elite slugging in conditions that inflate their best weapon, the overall environment nudges toward the over.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 20

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 20

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

On this page

Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up