St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB Picks

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Tue, Sep 22 · 6:40 PM ET · PNC Park

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

PIT -125

Projected Total

9.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

STLPIT

4.5 (T11th)

Runs

(5th) 4.8

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.700 (26th)

OPS

(7th) 0.731

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

31.6% (T15th)

OBP

(4th) 33.0%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.384 (27th)

SLG

(T15th) 0.401

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

158 (22nd)

(T17th) 171

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 174 HR)

8.2 (T14th)

Hits

(T2nd) 8.7

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.3% (T15th)

AVG

(5th) 25.3%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

96 (17th)

(8th) 126

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 102 SB)

4.6 (T20th)

Runs Allowed

(T20th) 4.6

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.29 (21st)

ERA

(17th) 4.18

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.35 (T21st)

WHIP

(T15th) 1.30

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

8.05 (24th)

K/9

(5th) 9.20

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

151 (4th)

HR Allowed

(2nd) 145

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 174 HR)

8.6 (T24th)

Hits Allowed

(T12th) 8.0

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.4% (T25th)

BAA

(T10th) 23.7%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.8% (T4th)

FLD%

(T23rd) 98.3%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

St. Louis's offense: They score runs at a roughly average clip, but nearly everything under the hood is soft, with power numbers near the bottom of the league and an on-base and slugging profile that falls well short of average.

Pittsburgh's offense: One of the better lineups in baseball, getting on base at a high rate, producing among the most hits per game in the league, and scoring runs among the top teams in the majors. They build offense through contact and plate discipline rather than power.

Pittsburgh's pitching: Among the better staffs in the league at missing bats, with a strikeout rate near the top of the league, and they give up very few home runs, keeping the ball in the park better than almost any team. Their overall numbers sit comfortably above average.

St. Louis's pitching: Below average across the board, giving up hits at a rate near the bottom of the league while generating strikeouts well below average. Limiting home runs and solid fielding are the genuine strengths.

Overall: Pittsburgh is the more complete team here, with clear advantages on both sides of the ball. The sharpest collision is Pittsburgh's lineup, one of the league's best at getting on base and putting balls in play, running into a St. Louis pitching staff that allows hits at one of the highest rates in the league and struggles to generate weak contact or swing and miss.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Andre Pallante

RIGHTY · STL

Rank

#3 · Mid-Rotation

Record

12-7

ERA

3.70

STL vs Righties

(Season)

49-56

STL vs Righties

(Season OPS)

7th of 30

STL vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

17th of 30

STL’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Jared Jones

RIGHTY · PIT

Rank

#5 · Back-End

Record

4-6

ERA

4.10

PIT vs Righties

(Season)

58-44

PIT vs Righties

(Season OPS)

26th of 30

PIT vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

25th of 30

PIT’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

St. Louis's starter: Andre Pallante has earned his mid-rotation standing through a season built on ground balls and weak contact rather than pure swing-and-miss ability. He is not an overpowering arm, but his ability to suppress hard contact consistently has kept him reliable and deep into games.

Pittsburgh's starter: Jared Jones is a back-end starter with a legitimate power arsenal that can generate real swing-and-miss when he is on. His fly-ball tendencies make him vulnerable to extra-base damage when his command wanders.

The lineups: St. Louis has been a genuinely strong offense against right-handed pitching over the full season, though their production against that hand has cooled notably in recent weeks. Pittsburgh's lineup sits near the bottom of the league against righties both on the season and over the last month, making them one of the softer matchups a contact-suppressing starter could ask for.

Overall: Pallante holds the clearer mound edge tonight, combining a reliable, ground-ball profile with a Pittsburgh lineup that has been consistently weak against right-handed pitching all year. Jones is a lesser arm by rotation standing and steps into a Cardinals offense that ranks among the better units against his hand for the season, even accounting for recent cooling. The pairing of a stronger starter against a weaker opposing lineup points toward St. Louis owning the better side of this pitching matchup.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

STLPIT

Bullpen

4.56 ERA

(24th of 30)

4.13 ERA

(19th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Middle relief has been used a bit.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

B. Jordan (3B) - SEP 14

J. Wetherholt (2B) - SEP 14

P. Strzelecki (RP) - SEP 8

H. Dobbins (SP) - SEP 3

E. Pereira (RF) - AUG 28

M. Rajcic (RP) - JUL 23

E. Valdez (RF) - SEP 12

B. Ashcraft (SP) - SEP 10

I. Mattson (RP) - SEP 8

K. Yates (RP) - SEP 3

E. Rodriguez (C) - SEP 1

M. Keller (SP) - AUG 3

The Read

St. Louis's bullpen: Their pen sits in the lower tier of the league this season, and the long reliever is already off the table, which shortens the staff if the starter exits early.

Pittsburgh's bullpen: Pittsburgh grades out a bit better overall, but one setup arm may be limited tonight and the manager has been leaning on middle relief more than usual, so that group could get stretched late.

Rest: Both clubs are well rested and playing at home with no travel concerns, so rest is a complete wash.

Injuries: Pittsburgh is carrying the heavier burden at key positions, with Valdez, Ashcraft, and Keller all sidelined, while St. Louis is missing Wetherholt and Dobbins at important spots. Both rosters are shorthanded, but Pittsburgh's absences run deeper.

Overall: The conditions lean modestly toward St. Louis tonight. Pittsburgh's pen is showing more strain and the Pirates are dealing with more key absences, particularly in the rotation. These are not overwhelming edges individually, but they point in the same direction.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

67°F

PNC Park

Open Air

Ballpark: Strong Pitcher-Friendly (25th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Cool air slightly reduces carry — Slight Pitcher Advantage

Wind: 11mph Blowing In → Pitcher Advantage

The Read

Ballpark: PNC Park consistently ranks among the toughest environments in baseball for hitters, suppressing run scoring across the board. Balls do not carry well here, turning deep fly balls into routine outs and giving a clear edge to pitchers.

Weather: Tonight's cool air limits ball carry further, adding to an already unfriendly environment for hitters. A steady wind blowing in from the outfield compounds that effect, making it harder for power hitters to get the ball out.

Overall: Between the park and the conditions, the environment leans firmly toward the under tonight. St. Louis ranks near the bottom of the league in slugging and overall offensive production, making them particularly vulnerable to a suppressive setting. Pittsburgh grades out better at the plate but still faces the same headwinds, and neither lineup looks well suited to push scoring totals higher on a night like this.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 22

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 22

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up