Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies, MLB Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Wed, Sep 23 · 8:40 PM ET · Coors Field

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

ARI -145

Projected Total

9.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

ARICOL

4.4 (T17th)

Runs

(T6th) 4.7

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.713 (20th)

OPS

(5th) 0.742

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

31.6% (T16th)

OBP

(7th) 32.4%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.397 (21st)

SLG

(4th) 0.418

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

154 (26th)

(20th) 169

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 175 HR)

8.2 (T14th)

Hits

(T4th) 8.6

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.4% (T15th)

AVG

(4th) 25.4%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

101 (T14th)

(T14th) 101

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 103 SB)

4.4 (T12th)

Runs Allowed

(30th) 5.8

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.09 (12th)

ERA

(30th) 5.59

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.28 (T11th)

WHIP

(30th) 1.53

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

7.09 (29th)

K/9

(30th) 7.02

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

171 (17th)

HR Allowed

(28th) 210

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 175 HR)

8.4 (T19th)

Hits Allowed

(30th) 10.1

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.8% (20th)

BAA

(30th) 28.9%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.9% (T2nd)

FLD%

(T27th) 98.2%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

Arizona's offense: A middle-of-the-pack lineup that scores at a near-average pace but sits near the bottom of the league in home run production. They collect hits and get on base at roughly average rates without imposing much power pressure.

Colorado's offense: One of the more productive lineups in the league, ranking near the top in batting average, hits per game, and run scoring. They make consistent, hard contact and get on base at a strong rate, giving them real teeth at the plate.

Arizona's pitching: Solid across the board and backed by some of the best fielding in the league, keeping run prevention in the upper half of the majors. They rely more on contact management than swing-and-miss ability, which is a factor worth watching against a contact-heavy lineup.

Colorado's pitching: Ranked last or near last in the league in virtually every pitching and run-prevention category, from runs allowed to hits surrendered to opponent batting average. They generate very few strikeouts and allow home runs at one of the higher rates in the majors.

Overall: This matchup has a clear structural imbalance. Colorado's offense is genuinely one of the better units in the league, but their pitching staff is the most vulnerable in the majors, and Arizona's solid pitching and top-tier defense put them in a strong position to take advantage of that gap. Colorado's lineup is capable of putting up a big number, but Arizona's two-way profile is the more complete package heading into tonight.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Michael Soroka

RIGHTY · ARI

Rank

#2 · High-End

Record

8-5

ERA

3.45

ARI vs Righties

(Season)

53-60

ARI vs Righties

(Season OPS)

5th of 30

ARI vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

4th of 30

ARI’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Tanner Gordon

RIGHTY · COL

Rank

#3 · Mid-Rotation

Record

1-4

ERA

5.55

COL vs Righties

(Season)

39-65

COL vs Righties

(Season OPS)

20th of 30

COL vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

14th of 30

COL’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

Arizona's starter: Michael Soroka has been a genuine top-of-rotation arm this season, built around keeping the ball in the yard and generating weak contact rather than overpowering hitters. He is not flashy, but his ability to prevent damage from accumulating makes him a reliable bet to pitch deep into games without getting blown up.

Colorado's starter: Tanner Gordon has had a difficult season, posting the profile of a pitcher hitters can reach in bunches. He gives up fly balls at a high rate and allows hits freely, a combination that turns costly at altitude and looks even worse given how little margin for error his numbers leave him.

The lineups: Arizona's offense against right-handed pitching has been one of the sharpest in baseball this season and has gotten even more productive in recent weeks, putting real pressure on Gordon's weaknesses. Colorado's lineup against right-handed pitching has been below average on the year and only middling lately, leaving Soroka a comfortable environment to operate in.

Overall: The mound edge tonight belongs clearly to Arizona. Soroka's contact-management profile is a poor fit for a Colorado lineup that has already had persistent trouble against right-handed pitching this season. Gordon's fly-ball, high-contact-allowed approach runs directly into one of the hotter right-handed-pitching offenses in the game right now, which is about as unfavorable a matchup as you can draw.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

ARICOL

Bullpen

3.92 ERA

(12th of 30)

4.93 ERA

(27th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

T. Locklear (1B) - SEP 12

R. Thompson (RP) - SEP 1

A. Puk (RP) - AUG 7

A. Saalfrank (RP) - JUL 18

C. Mena (RP) - JUN 1

H. Goodman (C) - SEP 16

J. Quintana (SP) - SEP 15

W. Castro (2B) - SEP 5

C. Dollander (SP) - JUN 23

W. Herrera (RP) - JUN 2

M. Brown (SP) - MAY 31

R. Petit (RP) - MAY 8

P. Ohl (RP) - MAY 8

K. Bryant (DH) - MAY 8

The Read

Arizona's bullpen: One of the stronger units in the league, with the closer and setup arms fully rested. Middle relief has been leaned on heavily of late and the long man may not be available, but the overall quality of the group limits the downside.

Colorado's bullpen: Among the worst relief corps in the league, and the depth concerns mirror Arizona's, with middle relief stretched and the long reliever potentially unavailable. The difference is there is far less margin for error given the quality of the unit.

Rest: Both teams are well-rested and neither is carrying any travel fatigue into tonight, so rest is essentially a wash and does not create an edge either direction.

Injuries: Colorado is dealing with a heavier and more damaging injury list, with Goodman, Castro, Quintana, and Dollander all sidelined (catcher, a middle infielder, and two rotation pieces). Arizona's absences are clustered in bullpen depth, which stings less given how that group has performed overall.

Overall: The conditions favor Arizona tonight, and the bullpen gap is the clearest reason why. Colorado's relief unit ranks near the bottom of the league while Arizona's sits comfortably in the top half, and Colorado is also absorbing key absences across the lineup and rotation that Arizona simply is not. Rest is equal on both sides, so that factor does nothing to close the gap.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

80°F

Coors Field

Open Air

Ballpark: Strong Hitter-Friendly (1st of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Warm air adds carry (~3 ft on fly balls) — Favors Hitters

Wind: 12mph Crosswind to Left Field → Hitter Advantage (Righties)

The Read

Ballpark: Coors Field ranks as the most hitter-friendly venue in baseball, with thin air at altitude that flattens breaking balls and turns routine fly outs into extra-base hits. Pitchers give up more runs here than at any other park in the league, and that holds regardless of who is starting.

Weather: Warm air tonight adds extra carry to balls in flight on top of what the altitude already provides. The crosswind pushing toward left field gives right-handed pull hitters a natural boost on well-struck fly balls.

Overall: Colorado's offense is legitimately strong by most offensive measures and figures to be comfortable in familiar altitude. Arizona's power production ranks near the bottom of the league, but Coors has a way of making even quiet lineups look more dangerous. The park, the warm air, and the wind all point the same direction tonight: conditions lean toward the over.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 23

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 23

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up