San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB Picks

San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers

Thu, Sep 24 · 10:10 PM ET

›

Market Action

Opens shortly

Odds haven't been tracked for this game yet. The moneyline and total graphs, splits, and sharp-money read publish here once the market opens.

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

LAD -140

Projected Total

8.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

SDLAD

4.4 (T18th)

Runs

(4th) 5.0

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.715 (T18th)

OPS

(2nd) 0.759

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

31.8% (T11th)

OBP

(3rd) 33.8%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.397 (T20th)

SLG

(3rd) 0.421

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

172 (18th)

(T8th) 190

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 176 HR)

8.0 (T22nd)

Hits

(T4th) 8.6

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.2% (T18th)

AVG

(3rd) 25.5%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

152 (4th)

(28th) 68

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 104 SB)

4.2 (T8th)

Runs Allowed

(T2nd) 3.8

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

3.94 (10th)

ERA

(T4th) 3.64

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.29 (14th)

WHIP

(T2nd) 1.16

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

8.23 (19th)

K/9

(4th) 9.38

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

170 (T14th)

HR Allowed

(13th) 169

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 176 HR)

8.0 (T12th)

Hits Allowed

(1st) 7.2

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.1% (T13th)

BAA

(1st) 22.0%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.9% (T2nd)

FLD%

(T2nd) 98.9%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Pitching Matchup

Opens shortly

Probable starters haven't been announced yet. The full pitching breakdown publishes here once both teams name a starter.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

SDLAD

Bullpen

3.53 ERA

(5th of 30)

3.99 ERA

(14th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

No day off before this road game.

Limited time to recover.

InjuryKey Players

G. Sheets (1B) - SEP 12

J. Estrada (RP) - SEP 12

R. Laureano (LF) - SEP 12

J. Adam (RP) - SEP 12

M. Andujar (DH) - SEP 9

J. Musgrove (SP) - SEP 2

L. Rengifo (LF) - SEP 1

L. Giolito (SP) - AUG 24

B. Hoeing (RP) - MAY 8

S. Ohtani (DH) - SEP 17

A. Pages (CF) - SEP 17

E. Diaz (RP) - SEP 17

D. Rushing (C) - SEP 17

B. Snell (SP) - SEP 16

R. Sasaki (SP) - SEP 16

E. Henriquez (RP) - SEP 16

E. Lauer (SP) - SEP 11

G. Stone (SP) - SEP 10

J. Cousins (RP) - SEP 3

W. Klein (RP) - SEP 2

B. Casparius (RP) - SEP 2

B. Graterol (RP) - JUN 1

Weather and Ballpark

Opens shortly

Game-time conditions aren't meaningful yet this far out. The real forecast and ballpark read publish here a couple days before first pitch.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 24

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 24

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

On this page

Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up