St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB Picks

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Thu, Sep 24 · 12:35 PM ET · PNC Park

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

PIT -130

Projected Total

9.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

STLPIT

4.5 (T11th)

Runs

(5th) 4.8

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.698 (26th)

OPS

(7th) 0.732

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

31.6% (T16th)

OBP

(4th) 33.0%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.382 (27th)

SLG

(T12th) 0.402

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

158 (T22nd)

(T14th) 175

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 176 HR)

8.2 (T14th)

Hits

(T2nd) 8.7

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.2% (T18th)

AVG

(5th) 25.3%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

97 (17th)

(8th) 126

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 104 SB)

4.6 (T20th)

Runs Allowed

(T20th) 4.6

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.28 (21st)

ERA

(T17th) 4.19

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.36 (T23rd)

WHIP

(T15th) 1.30

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

8.02 (24th)

K/9

(5th) 9.22

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

152 (4th)

HR Allowed

(2nd) 146

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 176 HR)

8.6 (T24th)

Hits Allowed

(T12th) 8.0

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.4% (T25th)

BAA

(T10th) 23.7%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.8% (T5th)

FLD%

(T23rd) 98.3%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

St. Louis's offense: They score at a middling pace, but their overall production sits near the bottom of the league, with slugging and on-base numbers among the weakest in baseball. There is no real power threat here, and they rely on a thin margin to manufacture runs.

Pittsburgh's offense: One of the better offensive units in the league, ranking near the top in runs scored, hits, and getting on base. They do their damage through volume and contact, and they run the bases more aggressively than most.

Pittsburgh's pitching: Their staff generates strikeouts at a rate near the top of the league and gives up home runs less frequently than almost any other team. Opponents have a hard time making consistent contact, which gives the staff a reliable floor despite runs still coming through at times.

St. Louis's pitching: Below average in most meaningful categories, allowing hits at a high rate and lacking the ability to miss bats with any consistency. Good fielding helps the cause, but it does not compensate for a staff that opposing lineups tend to put the ball in play against freely.

Overall: Pittsburgh holds a clear edge on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Their contact-heavy, high-on-base offense runs directly into a St. Louis staff that gives up hits more freely than most, which is about as clean a collision as you can find on a betting card. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's strikeout-oriented pitching is well-positioned to neutralize an already struggling St. Louis offense that generates little power and sits near the bottom of the league in overall production. Pittsburgh is the more complete team on paper tonight.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Kyle Leahy

RIGHTY · STL

Rank

#1 · Top Starter

Record

10-4

ERA

3.33

STL vs Righties

(Season)

49-57

STL vs Righties

(Season OPS)

7th of 30

STL vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

16th of 30

STL’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Paul Skenes

RIGHTY · PIT

Rank

#3 · Mid-Rotation

Record

10-11

ERA

3.78

PIT vs Righties

(Season)

58-45

PIT vs Righties

(Season OPS)

26th of 30

PIT vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

29th of 30

PIT’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

St. Louis's starter: Kyle Leahy has pitched as a genuine rotation anchor this season, building his success on inducing weak contact and staying out of trouble rather than overpowering hitters. He enters tonight as one of the more consistent starters in baseball, sitting at the top of his staff.

Pittsburgh's starter: Paul Skenes brings elite swing-and-miss ability and a tendency to keep the hit total low even as a fly-ball pitcher, but his record this season has not matched that raw profile. He slots in third in Pittsburgh's rotation rather than at the top of it.

The lineups: St. Louis has been an above-average offense against right-handed pitching for most of the year, though they have cooled off noticeably in recent weeks. Pittsburgh's lineup against righties has been one of the weakest in baseball all season and has only gotten worse lately, making it the clearest vulnerability in tonight's matchup.

Overall: The mound edge belongs to St. Louis. Leahy has been a steadier, more productive arm this season than Skenes, and he draws a Pittsburgh lineup that has been genuinely bad against right-handed pitching for months and is not getting better. Skenes has the arsenal to dominate on any given night, but St. Louis has handled right-handed pitching well enough all season to keep that ceiling in check.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

STLPIT

Bullpen

4.56 ERA

(24th of 30)

4.13 ERA

(19th of 30)

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Middle relief has been used a bit.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Played extra innings last time out.

Home for several days.

Bullpen and bench got less rest.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

J. Baez (LF) - SEP 16

B. Jordan (3B) - SEP 14

H. Dobbins (SP) - SEP 3

E. Pereira (RF) - AUG 28

M. Rajcic (RP) - JUL 23

E. Valdez (RF) - SEP 12

B. Ashcraft (SP) - SEP 10

I. Mattson (RP) - SEP 8

K. Yates (RP) - SEP 3

E. Rodriguez (C) - SEP 1

M. Keller (SP) - AUG 3

The Read

St. Louis's bullpen: Below average by ERA and carrying extra wear after a recent extra-innings game left the back end of the staff short on rest. Setup arms are fresh, but if the game runs long, options thin out quickly.

Pittsburgh's bullpen: Marginally better by ERA but shorthanded tonight. The middle relief has been overworked, one setup arm may be limited, and the long reliever is likely off the table, leaving the manager fewer levers to pull than usual.

Rest: Pittsburgh has a clear edge here, sitting comfortably at home with no travel demands and full recovery time. St. Louis is coming in with normal rest overall, but the extra-innings workload recently left the bullpen and bench running a bit thin.

Injuries: Pittsburgh is carrying more significant absences, losing multiple key rotation pieces (Ashcraft and Keller) plus a key outfielder (Valdez). St. Louis is without a key starter (Dobbins) as well, but Pittsburgh's injury burden runs deeper across both the pitching staff and the lineup.

Overall: The conditions present a genuinely mixed picture. Pittsburgh benefits from rest, home comfort, and a cleaner bullpen ERA, but their pen flexibility is compromised tonight and their injury list hits harder. St. Louis is fatigued and missing a key arm, but the bullpen depth concerns cut both ways. A slight lean toward Pittsburgh on conditions alone, though the gap is narrow enough that neither side holds a commanding edge.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

61°F

PNC Park

Open Air

Ballpark: Strong Pitcher-Friendly (25th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Cool air slightly reduces carry — Slight Pitcher Advantage

Wind: 3mph Blowing In → Neutral

The Read

Ballpark: PNC Park ranks near the bottom of baseball in runs, making it one of the more reliably pitcher-friendly venues in the league and a place where offenses consistently underperform their road numbers.

Weather: Cool air takes a touch of carry off the ball, leaning the edge further toward the pitchers, and the wind is essentially a non-factor tonight, neither helping nor hurting power hitters.

Overall: St. Louis brings one of the weaker offenses in baseball to a park that already suppresses scoring, and Pittsburgh's lineup is only marginally better. Both clubs lack the power profile needed to overcome a pitcher-friendly environment playing even a touch cooler than normal, so the conditions here lean clearly toward the under rather than favoring any kind of shootout.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 24

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 24

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up