Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees, MLB Picks

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Fri, Sep 25 · 7:05 PM ET · Yankee Stadium

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

NYY -155

Projected Total

8.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

BALNYY

4.4 (T17th)

Runs

(T7th) 4.6

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.709 (T22nd)

OPS

(T15th) 0.718

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

31.4% (T19th)

OBP

(T25th) 31.0%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.8%)

0.395 (23rd)

SLG

(7th) 0.408

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.400 SLG)

192 (10th)

(T1st) 217

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 180 HR)

7.8 (T26th)

Hits

(T28th) 7.7

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

23.4% (T26th)

AVG

(T26th) 23.4%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

76 (T25th)

(6th) 149

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 107 SB)

4.6 (T19th)

Runs Allowed

(T1st) 3.7

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.11 (13th)

ERA

(1st) 3.21

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.17 ERA)

1.34 (T20th)

WHIP

(3rd) 1.16

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.30 WHIP)

8.15 (23rd)

K/9

(8th) 8.99

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.50 K/9)

168 (11th)

HR Allowed

(5th) 159

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 180 HR)

8.6 (T24th)

Hits Allowed

(T2nd) 7.4

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.2% (24th)

BAA

(T2nd) 22.3%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.4% (T19th)

FLD%

(T19th) 98.4%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

Baltimore's offense: Baltimore has struggled to generate contact consistently, ranking among the worst teams in the league for hits per game and batting average. Their power production is a relative strength within the lineup but has not been enough to lift the offense into the top half of the league for overall run scoring.

New York's offense: New York carries the most home run power in the entire league and ranks among the better scoring offenses despite a contact rate near the bottom of the sport. They do serious damage when they connect, and their running game is one of the more active and productive ones in baseball.

New York's pitching: New York's staff leads the league in run prevention, gives up fewer hits per game than almost any other team in baseball, and holds opposing hitters to one of the lowest batting averages against in the majors. They strike out hitters at a well-above-average rate and put fewer baserunners on per inning than nearly any other staff in the sport.

Baltimore's pitching: Baltimore's staff sits in the lower half of the league across most pitching categories, allowing hits and runs at a rate that reflects a rotation without consistent command or reliable put-away stuff. They do not miss bats at a high rate, which puts steady pressure on the defense behind them to clean up contact.

Overall: New York holds the stronger profile on both sides. Their run-suppressing pitching, built on limiting contact and keeping hitters off base, runs directly into a Baltimore offense that already makes contact at one of the lowest rates in the league, a poor fit for a team trying to solve a staff this consistently capable of shutting lineups down. Baltimore's below-average pitching, meanwhile, gives New York's power-driven lineup every opportunity to do what it has done better than anyone all season.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Trevor Rogers

LEFTY · BAL

Rank

#2 · High-End

Record

10-11

ERA

4.07

BAL vs Lefties

(Season)

52-54

BAL vs Lefties

(Season OPS)

16th of 30

BAL vs Lefties

(L20 OPS)

20th of 30

BAL’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Will Warren

RIGHTY · NYY

Rank

#5 · Back-End

Record

10-6

ERA

4.02

NYY vs Righties

(Season)

34-19

NYY vs Righties

(Season OPS)

23rd of 30

NYY vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

29th of 30

NYY’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

Baltimore's starter: Trevor Rogers is a legitimate high-end arm who earns his spot by keeping hitters off the bases through command rather than pure stuff, though his tendency to invite fly-ball contact means the margin for error narrows when opponents make solid contact. He has been consistent enough this season to carry real rotation value, even if the profile is more craftsman than overpowering.

New York's starter: Will Warren is a back-end piece who survives through groundball generation and damage limitation rather than command precision or swing-and-miss ability. He keeps innings from unraveling, but his profile leans on soft contact staying soft.

The lineups: Baltimore has been a middling offense against right-handed pitching all year and has gotten no better against that hand lately, so Warren actually fits the matchup reasonably well. New York's lineup has a winning record against left-handers on paper, but their actual production against southpaws ranks near the bottom of the league this season and has fallen even further in recent weeks, making that record more misleading than reassuring.

Overall: Rogers holds the clear mound edge tonight. He is a tier above Warren in rotation standing and carries a command-first profile squarely into a New York offense that has been one of the least productive lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching lately. Warren is a back-end arm who limits damage but does not project as a neutralizer, and while Baltimore has been ordinary against right-handers recently, New York's cold spell versus the left hand is the sharper and more meaningful fade signal in this matchup.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

BALNYY

Bullpen

3.80 ERA

(10th of 30)

3.15 ERA

(2nd of 30)

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

Closer is rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

Middle relief arms are fresh.

Middle relief has been used a bit.

Long reliever is available if needed.

Rest

Home for several days.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

S. Basallo (C) - SEP 21

J. Holliday (2B) - SEP 21

T. O'Neill (RF) - SEP 19

R. Helsley (RP) - SEP 19

K. Bradish (SP) - SEP 16

B. Alexander (3B) - SEP 9

R. Mountcastle (1B) - SEP 8

L. Robert Jr. (CF) - SEP 6

C. Selby (RP) - JUL 31

K. Akin (RP) - JUL 15

J. Westburg (3B) - MAY 15

A. Judge (RF) - SEP 22

C. Schmidt (SP) - SEP 22

T. Grisham (CF) - SEP 20

R. Weathers (SP) - SEP 18

F. Cruz (RP) - SEP 8

K. Castro (RP) - AUG 26

G. Stanton (DH) - AUG 25

The Read

Baltimore's bullpen: A respectable unit but not elite, with one setup arm potentially limited tonight and the closer carrying some recent workload. Middle relief is fresh, which provides some cover if the staff needs to piece together innings.

New York's bullpen: One of the sharpest pens in baseball, with the closer and setup corps fully rested and ready to lock down late innings. Middle relief has some mileage on it lately, but the high-leverage options are in excellent shape.

Rest: Both clubs arrive tonight well-rested with no travel burden in play, making this category effectively a wash.

Injuries: Baltimore is carrying a significantly heavier injury load, with key contributors missing at catcher (Basallo), second base (Holliday), right field (O'Neill), center field (Robert Jr.), and third base (Alexander), plus a key rotation piece in Bradish. New York is without Judge, Grisham, and Cruz, which matters, but the sheer depth of Baltimore's absences across the lineup is notably greater.

Overall: The conditions lean toward New York tonight. Their bullpen represents a genuine advantage, entering with full rest and better overall quality, while Baltimore's pen carries some availability questions. Combined with a Baltimore lineup that is missing multiple everyday regulars, the Orioles are asking a patchwork group to beat a club with one of the better relief units in the league primed and ready to go.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

70°F

Yankee Stadium

Open Air

Ballpark: Strong Hitter-Friendly (6th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Little effect on carry either way in this range — Neutral

Wind: 11mph Blowing In → Pitcher Advantage

The Read

Ballpark: Yankee Stadium ranks among the most hitter-friendly venues in the sport, consistently producing high run totals and rewarding aggressive offenses with its compact dimensions and pull-friendly layout.

Weather: Temperatures are neutral tonight and will not meaningfully boost or suppress ball carry, but the wind blowing in off the outfield gives pitchers a real structural edge, working against fly balls and long drives.

Overall: The park's hitter-friendly reputation sets a strong baseline for scoring, but the inbound wind cuts directly against that tendency and matters most here given New York's historically power-heavy lineup, which leads the league in home runs and has the most to lose when conditions suppress the long ball. Baltimore's more modest power profile means they are less affected in relative terms, though they cannot simply absorb that wind either. On balance, the park tilts toward hitters but the wind tilts toward pitchers, and with the wind in play tonight the conditions lean under.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 25

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 25

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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