Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers, MLB Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers

Fri, Sep 25 · 6:40 PM ET · Comerica Park

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

DET -120

Projected Total

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

PITDET

4.8 (5th)

Runs

(T11th) 4.5

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.735 (6th)

OPS

(15th) 0.718

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

33.1% (4th)

OBP

(T11th) 31.8%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.404 (11th)

SLG

(17th) 0.400

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

176 (T15th)

(19th) 173

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 177 HR)

8.7 (T2nd)

Hits

(T18th) 8.1

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.4% (5th)

AVG

(T20th) 24.1%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

127 (8th)

(29th) 55

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 104 SB)

4.6 (T20th)

Runs Allowed

(6th) 4.0

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.19 (T17th)

ERA

(T4th) 3.63

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.30 (T15th)

WHIP

(5th) 1.22

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

9.23 (5th)

K/9

(22nd) 8.14

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.49 K/9)

148 (T1st)

HR Allowed

(T6th) 157

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 177 HR)

8.0 (T12th)

Hits Allowed

(T4th) 7.7

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

23.7% (11th)

BAA

(5th) 23.2%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.3% (T23rd)

FLD%

(T8th) 98.7%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

Pittsburgh's offense: One of the better offenses in the league at generating hits and getting on base, they score runs consistently through contact rather than power. They run the bases aggressively as well, adding pressure in ways most teams cannot.

Detroit's offense: A league-average outfit at best, Detroit struggles to make consistent contact and generates fewer hits per game than most clubs. They are also one of the least active baserunning teams in baseball, sitting near the very bottom of the league in that department.

Detroit's pitching: Among the strongest rotations in the league, Detroit limits hits, suppresses batting averages, and keeps runs off the board at a rate very few staffs can match. They do not pile up strikeouts at the pace of the top strikeout staffs, but their contact management and overall run prevention are as good as almost anyone in baseball.

Pittsburgh's pitching: The strikeout ability is genuine and ranks near the top of the league, but Pittsburgh surrenders home runs more than any other team and their overall run prevention sits below the league midpoint. Below-average fielding adds to the damage when balls are put in play.

Overall: Detroit holds the more complete matchup, and the central collision here is Pittsburgh's hit-heavy, get-on-base offense running directly into a staff that limits contact better than almost anyone in the league. Detroit's lineup is a weaker unit overall and does not hit for much power, which means Pittsburgh's most serious pitching problem (giving up home runs) may not be fully punished tonight. The pitching gap favors Detroit, and that is the most reliable edge in this game.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Bubba Chandler

RIGHTY · PIT

Rank

#6 · Back-End

Record

8-9

ERA

4.28

PIT vs Righties

(Season)

59-45

PIT vs Righties

(Season OPS)

15th of 30

PIT vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

28th of 30

PIT’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Jackson Jobe

RIGHTY · DET

Rank

#5 · Back-End

Record

2-2

ERA

3.89

DET vs Righties

(Season)

54-54

DET vs Righties

(Season OPS)

6th of 30

DET vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

5th of 30

DET’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

Pittsburgh's starter: Bubba Chandler is a back-end arm who has leaned on the fly ball all season while struggling to consistently locate his pitches. The walks and elevated contact in the air have defined his year, making him the kind of starter who gives opposing hitters extra chances to do damage.

Detroit's starter: Jackson Jobe is built around generating weak contact on the ground, but a concerning home run rate has worked against that profile this season. He keeps balls out of the air more often than not, yet the gopher ball has been a real problem lurking in his outings.

The lineups: Pittsburgh has been a roughly average offense against right-handed pitching across the season but has cooled sharply in recent weeks, making Jobe a decent draw. Detroit has been one of the better lineups in baseball against righties all year and has kept that form going lately, giving Chandler a genuine problem on his hands.

Overall: The clearer mound edge belongs to Jobe, given how poorly Pittsburgh has been hitting right-handed pitching in recent weeks paired with Chandler's walk and fly-ball issues that play right into a Detroit offense that has been feasting against this hand. Chandler's command troubles make him especially vulnerable to a lineup trending this hot. Jobe's home run rate is worth watching, but Pittsburgh's lineup is in no position to punish it right now.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

PITDET

Bullpen

4.11 ERA

(17th of 30)

3.81 ERA

(10th of 30)

Closer has pitched several days in a row.

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

No day off before this road game.

No travel concerns.

Limited time to recover.

InjuryKey Players

B. Ashcraft (SP) - SEP 18

E. Valdez (RF) - SEP 12

I. Mattson (RP) - SEP 8

K. Yates (RP) - SEP 3

E. Rodriguez (C) - SEP 1

M. Keller (SP) - AUG 3

K. Finnegan (RP) - SEP 17

K. Carpenter (RF) - SEP 17

J. Verlander (SP) - SEP 12

J. Flaherty (SP) - SEP 11

W. Perez (RF) - SEP 11

M. Vierling (CF) - SEP 6

W. Vest (RP) - AUG 11

B. Smith (RP) - JUL 24

B. Horn (RP) - JUL 17

P. Meadows (CF) - JUN 25

T. Sweeney (SS) - JUN 5

R. Olson (SP) - MAY 8

The Read

Pittsburgh's bullpen: Sitting in the middle of the league by ERA, Pittsburgh's pen is under visible strain with the closer overworked from consecutive appearances and a setup arm already limited. Middle relief is carrying more of the burden than ideal.

Detroit's bullpen: One of the better units in the league by ERA, with setup arms arriving fresh and ready to go. The long reliever is unavailable after recent use, but the rest of the pen looks in reasonable shape heading in.

Rest: Pittsburgh has a clear edge here, comfortable at home with multiple days to recover and no travel demands. Detroit comes in fatigued, arriving on the road without a day off to regroup.

Injuries: Detroit carries the heavier load by a wide margin, missing key contributors across the rotation (Verlander and Flaherty), the bullpen (Finnegan), and the everyday lineup (Carpenter, Vierling, Sweeney). Pittsburgh is without starters Ashcraft and Keller and outfielder Valdez, which matters, but the volume and positional spread of Detroit's absences is more disruptive.

Overall: Conditions lean Pittsburgh's way tonight on multiple fronts. They come in rested and at home while Detroit arrives worn down on the road, with a rotation and lineup hit hard by injuries. Pittsburgh's bullpen fatigue is a real concern, but it is not enough to offset the fatigue and depth problems Detroit is managing at the same time.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

66°F

Comerica Park

Open Air

Ballpark: Slightly Pitcher-Friendly (23rd of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Cool air slightly reduces carry — Slight Pitcher Advantage

Wind: 6mph Crosswind to Right Field → Slight Hitter Advantage (Lefties)

The Read

Ballpark: Comerica plays on the pitcher-friendly side of the spectrum, ranking toward the bottom of the league in run production. Power numbers tend to come in a little lighter here than what either of these lineups might generate in a neutral environment.

Weather: Cool air reduces ball carry enough to shade conditions slightly toward the pitchers tonight. A light crosswind moving toward right field offers left-handed hitters a mild lift, but it is not strong enough to meaningfully flip the overall weather picture.

Overall: Pittsburgh comes in as the more dangerous offensive club, carrying a top-ten OPS and stronger slugging marks across the board, while Detroit sits closer to league average on both fronts. Even so, a pitcher-leaning park and cool air work against both sides tonight, and the crosswind provides only a modest offset. Conditions lean modestly toward the under, though neither the park nor the weather is severe enough to make it a strong positional edge on its own.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 25

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 25

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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