St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers, MLB Picks

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers

Fri, Sep 25 · 7:40 PM ET · American Family Field

‹›

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

MIL -235

Projected Total

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

STLMIL

4.5 (T11th)

Runs

(2nd) 5.2

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.697 (26th)

OPS

(4th) 0.747

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

31.6% (T15th)

OBP

(1st) 34.2%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.381 (T27th)

SLG

(T9th) 0.405

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

158 (T24th)

(T28th) 148

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 177 HR)

8.2 (T13th)

Hits

(1st) 8.8

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.2% (19th)

AVG

(2nd) 25.9%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

97 (17th)

(5th) 152

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 104 SB)

4.6 (T20th)

Runs Allowed

(T4th) 3.9

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.30 (22nd)

ERA

(2nd) 3.59

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.36 (T23rd)

WHIP

(4th) 1.19

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

8.01 (24th)

K/9

(2nd) 9.68

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.49 K/9)

153 (4th)

HR Allowed

(10th) 165

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 177 HR)

8.6 (T24th)

Hits Allowed

(T2nd) 7.4

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.4% (T25th)

BAA

(3rd) 22.4%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.7% (T8th)

FLD%

(T8th) 98.7%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

St. Louis's offense: They score at roughly a middle-of-the-pack pace, but their overall production, power, and slugging rank among the weakest in the league. Getting runners on base is about average, though converting that into damage has been a consistent problem all season.

Milwaukee's offense: One of the most productive lineups in baseball, leading the league in getting on base and in hits per game while scoring at a pace nearly unmatched this season. They manufacture runs better than almost anyone without leaning heavily on the long ball.

Milwaukee's pitching: Among the best staffs in baseball, ranking near the top in run prevention, opponent batting average, strikeout rate, and baserunners allowed per inning. Hitters genuinely struggle to do damage against them.

St. Louis's pitching: Well below the league average in most key areas, giving up hits freely, failing to miss bats at a meaningful rate, and sitting in the bottom third of the league in ERA. Their fielding is solid and they have kept home runs relatively in check, but those bright spots don't offset the broader concerns.

Overall: Milwaukee holds a clear edge on both sides of the ball, and the matchup shapes up as a direct collision of strengths and weaknesses. Their strong pitching staff draws one of the weaker offenses in the league, while their productive lineup faces a rotation that has struggled to retire hitters all season. Both arrows point the same way tonight.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Michael McGreevy

RIGHTY · STL

Rank

#4 · Back-End

Record

7-9

ERA

3.83

STL vs Righties

(Season)

49-58

STL vs Righties

(Season OPS)

4th of 30

STL vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

2nd of 30

STL’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Dustin May

RIGHTY · MIL

Rank

#7 · Back-End

Record

7-9

ERA

4.61

MIL vs Righties

(Season)

62-44

MIL vs Righties

(Season OPS)

26th of 30

MIL vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

29th of 30

MIL’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

St. Louis's starter: McGreevy is a back-end arm who pitches to contact rather than missing bats, surviving on weak contact and keeping the ball in play on his terms. His season results suggest a modest but workable plan executed with reasonable consistency.

Milwaukee's starter: May sits deeper in Milwaukee's rotation and builds his profile around strikeouts and homer suppression, an interesting combination given his fly-ball tendency. His run prevention has been shakier than his stuff might suggest, making him a somewhat volatile back-end option.

The lineups: St. Louis ranks among the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching this season, and that strength has only climbed over the last few weeks. Milwaukee, by contrast, has been one of the least productive lineups against righties all year, and their struggles against that hand have worsened recently, making them a genuine liability in this spot.

Overall: The mound edge tonight clearly favors the St. Louis side of the matchup. McGreevy's contact-management approach draws a Milwaukee lineup that has been among the most passive and unproductive against right-handed pitching in recent weeks, about as favorable a setup as a soft-contact back-end arm can ask for. May, meanwhile, faces one of the sharpest right-handed offenses in the league at the moment, a difficult ask for a starter whose run prevention has been inconsistent, even when his strikeout ability is working in his favor.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

STLMIL

Bullpen

4.55 ERA

(24th of 30)

3.46 ERA

(4th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

Extra innings last night with no day off.

No travel concerns.

Very little time to recover.

InjuryKey Players

J. Baez (LF) - SEP 18

E. Pereira (RF) - SEP 18

B. Jordan (3B) - SEP 14

H. Dobbins (SP) - SEP 3

M. Rajcic (RP) - JUL 23

G. Anderson (RP) - SEP 15

B. Wilson (RP) - SEP 15

B. Woodruff (SP) - SEP 15

B. Fitzpatrick (RP) - JUL 4

Q. Priester (SP) - JUN 18

A. Zerpa (RP) - MAY 31

The Read

St. Louis's bullpen: Their pen ranks near the bottom of the league in ERA, so quality is already a concern before factoring in tonight's availability. The long reliever is likely off the table and middle relief has been leaned on heavily.

Milwaukee's bullpen: Normally one of the better pens in baseball, but it is fraying at the edges tonight. The closer is available though recently used, one setup arm may be limited, middle relief is taxed, and the long reliever is likely gone, so the depth chart is thinner than the headline number suggests.

Rest: St. Louis comes in fresh after several comfortable days at home with no travel burden, while Milwaukee is fighting through fatigue after extra innings last night with no recovery day in between.

Injuries: Milwaukee is carrying the heavier injury load where it hurts most. Woodruff and Priester are both key starters already out of the rotation, and several relievers are also unavailable, further squeezing a pen that is already running low on depth tonight. St. Louis is missing key starter Dobbins along with some outfield pieces, but the cumulative damage on Milwaukee's pitching staff is more significant.

Overall: The conditions lean toward St. Louis tonight. They carry a clear rest edge, and Milwaukee's bullpen quality advantage is undercut by fatigue, recent usage, and a thinned injury list. Milwaukee is essentially asking a short, worn-down pen to carry more weight than usual against a lineup that showed up fresh.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

63°F

American Family Field

Open Air

Ballpark: Slightly Hitter-Friendly (8th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Cool air slightly reduces carry — Slight Pitcher Advantage

Wind: 5mph Crosswind to Right Field → Neutral

The Read

Ballpark: American Family Field ranks among the better run-scoring environments in the league, and the retractable roof keeps conditions stable and predictable rather than letting the elements complicate things. It tilts slightly toward hitters, though not dramatically so.

Weather: Tonight's cool air takes a touch of carry off fly balls, giving pitchers a slight edge that nudges the park below its usual baseline. The light crosswind is barely a factor and should play as close to neutral as wind can get.

Overall: The mild hitter-friendly nature of this park is working against two lineups that rank near the bottom of the league in power and overall production, with St. Louis particularly weak in those categories. Cool air further suppresses what little carry these offenses generate, and Milwaukee's comparative advantage in slugging and getting on base may matter more in the context of a close, lower-scoring game. The conditions here, park and weather combined, lean toward the under rather than pushing scoring above the number.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 25

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 25

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

On this page

Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up

Tools

Loading tools…