Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants, MLB Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Sat, Sep 26 · 4:05 PM ET · Oracle Park

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

LAD -200

Projected Total

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

LADSF

5.0 (4th)

Runs

(T23rd) 4.2

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.764 (2nd)

OPS

(19th) 0.716

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.720 OPS)

33.9% (3rd)

OBP

(T28th) 30.9%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.425 (T2nd)

SLG

(8th) 0.407

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

196 (8th)

(16th) 177

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 178 HR)

8.6 (T5th)

Hits

(T7th) 8.4

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.7% (3rd)

AVG

(T8th) 24.8%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

68 (28th)

(T23rd) 80

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 105 SB)

3.8 (T2nd)

Runs Allowed

(T23rd) 4.8

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

3.63 (T5th)

ERA

(23rd) 4.39

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.16 (T2nd)

WHIP

(T24th) 1.37

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

9.42 (4th)

K/9

(27th) 7.58

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.49 K/9)

171 (T13th)

HR Allowed

(3rd) 150

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 178 HR)

7.2 (1st)

Hits Allowed

(T18th) 8.3

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

22.0% (1st)

BAA

(21st) 24.9%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.9% (T2nd)

FLD%

(T28th) 98.2%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

Los Angeles's offense: One of the most productive lineups in the league, ranking near the top in on-base percentage, slugging, and overall offensive output. They get on base at a high rate, make frequent contact, and do real damage when they connect.

San Francisco's offense: They make contact at a respectable rate and carry some legitimate pop, but they rank near the bottom of the league at reaching base overall, which holds their run production well below average.

Los Angeles's pitching: Among the very best in the league at preventing baserunners, leading all of baseball in hits allowed per game and batting average against while ranking near the top in strikeouts and walks-plus-hits per inning. They also defend cleanly behind their pitchers.

San Francisco's pitching: Sits in the lower third of the league in ERA and rate of baserunners allowed, and ranks near the bottom in strikeouts per inning and fielding percentage. Their staff tends to put runners on base and struggles to miss bats.

Overall: Los Angeles brings a considerably more complete game into this matchup, pairing one of the better offenses in baseball with pitching that ranks among the league's best at suppressing contact. The most telling collision is Los Angeles's lineup, which excels at reaching base, against a San Francisco staff that already struggles with baserunner management and sits near the bottom of the league in punchouts. San Francisco's offense faces the opposite problem, coming in with one of the worst on-base rates in baseball against pitching that allows fewer hits per game than any other staff in the majors.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Justin Wrobleski

LEFTY · LAD

Rank

#5 · Back-End

Record

11-5

ERA

3.70

LAD vs Lefties

(Season)

65-38

LAD vs Lefties

(Season OPS)

19th of 30

LAD vs Lefties

(L20 OPS)

11th of 30

LAD’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Landen Roupp

RIGHTY · SF

Rank

#2 · High-End

Record

9-14

ERA

4.01

SF vs Righties

(Season)

19-28

SF vs Righties

(Season OPS)

2nd of 30

SF vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

3rd of 30

SF’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

Los Angeles's starter: Justin Wrobleski is a back-end arm who earns his outs through control and weak contact, suppressing walks and generating plenty of fly balls. The liability is the home run, as he has given it up more freely than a starter with his profile ideally would.

San Francisco's starter: Landen Roupp carries the profile of a true front-of-rotation piece, working down in the zone and keeping the ball on the ground to limit the long ball. The persistent problem is command, as he has issued far too many free passes this season and that habit tends to compound against any lineup given enough time.

The lineups: San Francisco has been one of the most dangerous offenses in the league against left-handed pitching all season, and that form has held up convincingly in recent games, making Wrobleski's arm angle a genuine concern. Los Angeles owns a winning record against right-handers but sits closer to the middle of the pack in how well it has actually hit them, both over the full season and recently.

Overall: On paper the rotation edge belongs to Roupp given where he sits in his staff, but the more pressing matchup question is Wrobleski walking into a San Francisco lineup that has punished left-handed pitching at a near-elite level all year and has not cooled off lately. Roupp's command issues keep the door open for Los Angeles, yet his ground-ball tendencies cap how quickly that damage can escalate even when he falls behind in counts. The sharpest advantage in this game tonight belongs to San Francisco, driven less by their starter's tier and more by what their offense is positioned to do against a fly-ball lefty who already carries a home-run concern.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

LADSF

Bullpen

3.93 ERA

(14th of 30)

4.18 ERA

(19th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

Had a rest day before this trip.

No travel concerns.

No major travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

K. Tucker (RF) - SEP 20

S. Ohtani (DH) - SEP 20

R. Sasaki (SP) - SEP 19

A. Pages (CF) - SEP 17

D. Rushing (C) - SEP 17

B. Snell (SP) - SEP 16

E. Henriquez (RP) - SEP 16

E. Lauer (SP) - SEP 11

G. Stone (SP) - SEP 10

J. Cousins (RP) - SEP 3

W. Klein (RP) - SEP 2

B. Casparius (RP) - SEP 2

B. Graterol (RP) - JUN 1

B. Eldridge (DH) - SEP 20

R. Sanmartin (RP) - SEP 19

N. Furman (2B) - SEP 18

L. Webb (SP) - SEP 18

R. Rodriguez (RP) - SEP 15

R. Devers (1B) - SEP 13

C. Whisenhunt (SP) - SEP 9

M. Mayer (2B) - SEP 7

J. Brubaker (RP) - SEP 7

J. Rodriguez (C) - SEP 4

K. Winn (RP) - SEP 3

A. Houser (SP) - SEP 1

M. Gage (RP) - SEP 1

C. Schmitt (LF) - AUG 29

W. Adames (SS) - AUG 27

J. Peguero (RP) - AUG 21

D. Susac (C) - AUG 19

H. Bader (CF) - AUG 19

M. Chapman (3B) - AUG 14

T. McDonald (SP) - AUG 13

R. Wick (RP) - MAY 8

H. Birdsong (RP) - MAY 8

J. Butto (RP) - MAY 8

The Read

Los Angeles's bullpen: LA enters with a top-half bullpen and their closer ready, though one setup arm could be limited and middle relief has been leaned on heavily of late. Their long reliever has had some recovery time, which preserves a bit more depth.

San Francisco's bullpen: SF's pen ranks in the bottom half of the league and comes in thin tonight, with their long reliever likely unavailable and middle relief also stretched. The setup corps is fresh, but overall the unit is more exposed than usual.

Rest: Both clubs arrive comfortable with no meaningful travel burden, making rest essentially a wash heading into tonight.

Injuries: San Francisco is carrying a far deeper injury toll, with multiple lineup cornerstones (Devers, Adames, Chapman, Mayer, Bader, Schmitt) and several rotation pieces sidelined. Los Angeles is hurting too, notably without Ohtani and Tucker, but SF's absences spread much further across the roster and thin out the everyday lineup in ways that compound.

Overall: The conditions lean toward Los Angeles tonight. Their bullpen is better ranked and healthier, both teams are rested, and while LA is missing genuine stars, San Francisco's injury situation is broader and harder to paper over with depth that is also thinned out. The edge here is meaningful rather than marginal.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

73°F

Oracle Park

Open Air

Ballpark: Strong Pitcher-Friendly (30th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Little effect on carry either way in this range — Neutral

Wind: 5mph Blowing Out → Neutral

The Read

Ballpark: Oracle Park is the single toughest run-scoring environment in baseball, built to punish hitters and reward pitching staffs at every turn. The deep dimensions and marine air suppress fly balls and drain extra-base production in ways that show up consistently across the season.

Weather: Tonight's temperature sits in a neutral range that does nothing to help or hurt ball carry. The light breeze blowing out is not strong enough to meaningfully elevate fly balls or give hitters a useful boost.

Overall: The park is the dominant factor here, and it leans hard toward the under regardless of who is in the lineup. Los Angeles brings one of the sharpest offensive attacks in the league, ranking near the very top in slugging and overall production, but Oracle has a long track record of flattening even premium lineups. San Francisco's offense is more modest, and this setting does nothing to lift them. The conditions stack toward the under, with no meaningful weather offset to change that read.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 26

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 26

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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