Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies, MLB Picks

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:15 PM ET
Market Action
Opens shortly
Odds haven't been tracked for this game yet. The moneyline and total graphs, splits, and sharp-money read publish here once the market opens.
Model Projection
These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.
Projected Moneyline
TB -140
Projected Total
8.5
This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.
Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.
TBPHI
4.6 (T8th)
Runs
(T11th) 4.5
How many runs does the team score per game?
(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)
0.732 (7th)
OPS
(T22nd) 0.710
How strong is the team's overall offense?
(League Avg: 0.720 OPS)
32.8% (5th)
OBP
(T22nd) 31.2%
How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?
(League Avg: 31.9%)
0.404 (10th)
SLG
(T18th) 0.398
How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?
(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)
163 (21st)
HR
(T12th) 179
How many home runs has the team hit this season?
(League Avg: 178 HR)
8.7 (T2nd)
Hits
(T18th) 8.1
How many hits does the team get per game?
(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)
25.9% (1st)
AVG
(T20th) 24.1%
How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?
(League Avg: 24.4%)
158 (3rd)
SB
(15th) 102
How many bases has the team stolen this season?
(League Avg: 105 SB)
4.0 (T6th)
Runs Allowed
(T10th) 4.3
How many runs does the team allow per game?
(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)
3.72 (7th)
ERA
(11th) 4.02
How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?
(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)
1.14 (1st)
WHIP
(T12th) 1.29
How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?
(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)
8.19 (20th)
K/9
(1st) 9.83
How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?
(League Avg: 8.49 K/9)
191 (23rd)
HR Allowed
(20th) 183
How many home runs has the team allowed this season?
(League Avg: 178 HR)
7.7 (T4th)
Hits Allowed
(T20th) 8.4
How many hits does the team allow per game?
(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)
22.9% (4th)
BAA
(T18th) 24.7%
How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?
(League Avg: 24.4%)
98.4% (T20th)
FLD%
(T12th) 98.6%
How often does the defense avoid errors?
(League Avg: 98.6%)
Pitching Matchup
Opens shortly
Probable starters haven't been announced yet. The full pitching breakdown publishes here once both teams name a starter.
Team Conditions
Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.
TBPHI
Bullpen
4.03 ERA
(15th of 30)
4.36 ERA
(21st of 30)
Closer pitched recently but should be OK.
Closer is rested and ready.
One setup reliever may be limited tonight.
Setup relievers have been worked hard recently.
Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.
Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.
Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.
Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.
Rest
Home for several days.
No day off before this road game.
No travel concerns.
Limited time to recover.
InjuryKey Players
G. Cleavinger (RP) - SEP 18
T. Wells (RP) - SEP 15
S. McClanahan (SP) - SEP 15
M. Rodriguez (RP) - SEP 11
G. Lux (LF) - SEP 11
E. Uceta (RP) - AUG 14
J. Heasley (RP) - JUN 8
R. Pepiot (SP) - MAY 8
J. Bowlan (RP) - SEP 18
C. Kilian (RP) - SEP 17
J. Luzardo (SP) - SEP 15
F. Reyes (LF) - AUG 20
B. Keller (RP) - JUL 29
J. Rojas (CF) - JUN 25
A. Garcia (RF) - JUN 24
Weather and Ballpark
Opens shortly
Game-time conditions aren't meaningful yet this far out. The real forecast and ballpark read publish here a couple days before first pitch.
Side Write-Up
🔒 Final pick drops September 26
The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.
Total Write-Up
🔒 Final pick drops September 26
The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.
VIMB
Written by
VIMB
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Games Tested
This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.
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