Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves, MLB Picks

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

Wed, Sep 30 · 2:00 PM ET

‹›

Market Action

PHI @ ATL

Live odds tracking

PHI

OWLS INSIGHTAPI / DATA10% OFF First 3-Months

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Independently featured as a top pick on SportsAPIs directory comparing 30+ sports data APIs, with reviewers specifically calling out its clean multi-book lines and real-time delivery. Real-Time Odds from 20+ Sportsbooks + 4 Prediction Markets. This is the actual infrastructure we use ourselves to power the tools on this site: real, live, professional-grade data, not a scraped or delayed feed. More impressive features include: Sub-Second Sharp Feeds from Pinnacle + PS3838, Built-In +EV Scanner, Fair Pricing, Props + Live Scores.

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

ATL -130

Market

ATL +102

Projected Total

8.6 Runs

Market

7.5 (O +116 / U -130)

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

PHIATL

4.4 (T17th)

Runs

(T7th) 4.6

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.707 (22nd)

OPS

(T16th) 0.718

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

31.2% (23rd)

OBP

(28th) 30.9%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.8%)

0.395 (T23rd)

SLG

(T6th) 0.409

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.400 SLG)

182 (T16th)

(T7th) 204

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 186 HR)

8.0 (T22nd)

Hits

(T8th) 8.3

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.0% (21st)

AVG

(T10th) 24.6%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

105 (15th)

(T23rd) 83

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 110 SB)

4.3 (T10th)

Runs Allowed

(5th) 3.9

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.04 (11th)

ERA

(5th) 3.63

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.17 ERA)

1.29 (T13th)

WHIP

(7th) 1.24

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.30 WHIP)

9.87 (1st)

K/9

(16th) 8.45

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.50 K/9)

191 (21st)

HR Allowed

(17th) 185

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 186 HR)

8.4 (T19th)

Hits Allowed

(T6th) 7.8

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.8% (T18th)

BAA

(6th) 23.4%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.6% (T14th)

FLD%

(T2nd) 98.9%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Pitching Matchup

Opens shortly

Probable starters haven't been announced yet. The full pitching breakdown publishes here once both teams name a starter.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

PHIATL

Bullpen

4.43 ERA

(21st of 30)

3.44 ERA

(4th of 30)

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

Closer is rested and ready.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.

Rest

Home for several days.

No day off before this road game.

No travel concerns.

Limited time to recover.

InjuryKey Players

L. Arraez (2B) - SEP 27

J. Bowlan (RP) - SEP 18

C. Kilian (RP) - SEP 17

F. Reyes (LF) - AUG 20

B. Keller (RP) - JUL 29

J. Rojas (CF) - JUN 25

A. Garcia (RF) - JUN 24

H. Waldrep (SP) - SEP 24

M. Perez (SP) - SEP 24

L. Thomas (LF) - SEP 22

R. Lopez (RP) - SEP 15

J. Jimenez (RP) - SEP 15

B. Elder (SP) - SEP 9

S. Strider (SP) - AUG 28

S. Schwellenbach (SP) - AUG 28

J. Wentz (RP) - MAY 8

Weather and Ballpark

Opens shortly

Game-time conditions aren't meaningful yet this far out. The real forecast and ballpark read publish here a couple days before first pitch.

Side Write-Up

Opens shortly

This write-up is being put together right now. It'll be here shortly.

Total Write-Up

Opens shortly

The final pick is locked until real market data exists, so it can't be second-guessed by a few hours of line movement. Check back once the market opens.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up

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