Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB Picks

Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers

Sat, Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ET

‹›

Market Action

ATL @ LAD

Live odds tracking

LAD

OWLS INSIGHTAPI / DATA10% OFF First 3-Months

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Independently featured as a top pick on SportsAPIs directory comparing 30+ sports data APIs, with reviewers specifically calling out its clean multi-book lines and real-time delivery. Real-Time Odds from 20+ Sportsbooks + 4 Prediction Markets. This is the actual infrastructure we use ourselves to power the tools on this site: real, live, professional-grade data, not a scraped or delayed feed. More impressive features include: Sub-Second Sharp Feeds from Pinnacle + PS3838, Built-In +EV Scanner, Fair Pricing, Props + Live Scores.

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

LAD -150

Market

LAD -212

Projected Total

8.6 Runs

Market

8.5 (O +101 / U -112)

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

ATLLAD

4.6 (T7th)

Runs

(4th) 4.9

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.718 (T16th)

OPS

(2nd) 0.762

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

30.9% (28th)

OBP

(3rd) 33.8%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.8%)

0.409 (T6th)

SLG

(2nd) 0.424

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.400 SLG)

204 (T7th)

(T7th) 204

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 186 HR)

8.3 (T8th)

Hits

(T4th) 8.6

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.6% (T10th)

AVG

(3rd) 25.7%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

83 (T23rd)

(28th) 72

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 110 SB)

3.9 (5th)

Runs Allowed

(T1st) 3.7

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

3.63 (5th)

ERA

(4th) 3.55

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.17 ERA)

1.24 (7th)

WHIP

(T1st) 1.14

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.30 WHIP)

8.45 (16th)

K/9

(4th) 9.53

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.50 K/9)

185 (17th)

HR Allowed

(12th) 172

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 186 HR)

7.8 (T6th)

Hits Allowed

(1st) 7.2

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

23.4% (6th)

BAA

(1st) 21.8%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.9% (T2nd)

FLD%

(T2nd) 98.9%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Pitching Matchup

Opens shortly

Probable starters haven't been announced yet. The full pitching breakdown publishes here once both teams name a starter.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

ATLLAD

Bullpen

3.44 ERA

(4th of 30)

3.74 ERA

(9th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

No day off before this road game.

Extra innings last night with no day off.

Limited time to recover.

Very little time to recover.

InjuryKey Players

L. Thomas (LF) - OCT 2

M. Perez (SP) - OCT 2

B. Elder (SP) - OCT 2

T. Mahle (SP) - SEP 30

H. Waldrep (SP) - SEP 24

R. Lopez (RP) - SEP 15

J. Jimenez (RP) - SEP 15

S. Strider (SP) - AUG 28

S. Schwellenbach (SP) - AUG 28

J. Wentz (RP) - MAY 8

B. Treinen (RP) - SEP 27

W. Klein (RP) - SEP 22

E. Lauer (SP) - SEP 11

G. Stone (SP) - SEP 10

J. Cousins (RP) - SEP 3

B. Casparius (RP) - SEP 2

B. Graterol (RP) - JUN 1

Weather and Ballpark

Opens shortly

Game-time conditions aren't meaningful yet this far out. The real forecast and ballpark read publish here a couple days before first pitch.

Side Write-Up

Opens shortly

This write-up is being put together right now. It'll be here shortly.

Total Write-Up

Opens shortly

The final pick is locked until real market data exists, so it can't be second-guessed by a few hours of line movement. Check back once the market opens.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up

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