Los Angeles Kings vs San Jose Sharks, NHL Picks

Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings
VS
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks
Sat, Oct 3 · 10:00 PM ET · SAP Center at San Jose
‹›
Model Projection
These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from each team's real goal differential in ESPN's NHL standings.
Projected Moneyline
LA -105
No real live market line available yet.
Projected Total
6.2 Goals
No real live market line available yet.
This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.
Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.
LASJ
2.68 (29th)
Goals
(17th) 3.04
How many goals does the team score per game?
(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)
28.0 (17th)
Shots
(26th) 25.8
How many shots on goal does the team take per game?
(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)
9.6% (30th)
Shooting %
(8th) 11.8%
How often do the team's shots on goal go in?
(League Avg: 11.1%)
17.0% (28th)
Power Play %
(16th) 21.2%
How often does the power play score?
(League Avg: 21.1%)
49.8% (17th)
Faceoff %
(26th) 47.8%
How often does the team win the faceoff?
(League Avg: 50.0%)
2.90 (T7th)
Goals Allowed
(30th) 3.54
How many goals does the defense allow per game?
(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)
27.2 (11th)
Shots Allowed
(27th) 29.6
How many shots on goal does the defense allow per game?
(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)
89.9% (T12th)
Save %
(25th) 88.7%
How often do the team's goalies stop a shot on goal?
(League Avg: 89.5%)
74.6% (30th)
Penalty Kill %
(26th) 76.4%
How often does the penalty kill keep the other team off the board?
(League Avg: 78.9%)
14.6 (13th)
Blocked Shots
(12th) 14.7
How many shots does the team block per game?
(League Avg: 14.2 Blocks/Game)
Matchup Breakdown
Kings' offense: The Kings generate a respectable volume of shots in the 2025-26 season but rank among the league's worst at converting them, making their goal output one of the lowest in the league despite staying active on the attack. Their power play sits near the very bottom of the league as well, leaving them with little special teams support to compensate.
Sharks' offense: The Sharks rank near the bottom of the league in shot volume but compensate by converting at one of the higher rates in the league, pushing their overall scoring into the middle of the pack in the 2025-26 season. Their power play lands right at the league midpoint, functional but not a significant weapon.
Kings' defense: The Kings are one of the stronger defensive teams in the league in the 2025-26 season, limiting goals against at a rate that places them well inside the top quarter, with solid goaltending and above-average shot suppression behind it. The clear vulnerability is their penalty kill, which ranks among the very worst in the league and turns every minor penalty into a legitimate scoring threat.
Sharks' defense: The Sharks rank near the very bottom of the league in goals allowed in the 2025-26 season, allowing a high volume of shots with below-average goaltending compounding the damage. Their penalty kill is also below average, though it sits a level above the Kings' shorthanded unit.
Overall: The Kings carry the more complete profile in this 2025-26 season matchup, with a defensive structure that ranks among the better units in the league while the Sharks struggle badly on that same end. The clearest collision is the Sharks' shot-efficient offense running into a Kings defensive system built to limit goals at a high level, which directly undercuts the Sharks' main strength. The Kings' penalty kill remains the swing factor, as the Sharks' power play is capable enough to punish one of the league's most vulnerable shorthanded units.
Goalie Matchup
The two starters in net, and how each has actually played.
Darcy Kuemper
Darcy Kuemper
G #35 · LA
Tier
Average
Save %
.891
Goals Against Avg
2.78
Record
19-14-15
Shutouts
3
Starts
50
2025-26 season numbers
LA’s starting goalie isn’t confirmed yet. This is the projected starter.
Yaroslav Askarov
Yaroslav Askarov
G #30 · SJ
Tier
Struggling
Save %
.884
Goals Against Avg
3.63
Record
21-20-4
Shutouts
0
Starts
47
2025-26 season numbers
SJ’s starting goalie isn’t confirmed yet. This is the projected starter.
The Read
Kings' goalie: Kuemper was a middling performer in the 2025-26 season, doing just enough to keep his team in games without offering any real cushion against pressure. He produced a handful of shutouts across a full workload, but his overall numbers place him squarely in the average tier rather than above it. His start is projected but not yet confirmed.
Sharks' goalie: Askarov had a difficult 2025-26 season, posting a goals against average that ranks among the worse in the league and a save percentage that falls below the middle of the pack. He went the entire season without a shutout across a nearly full slate of starts, pointing to persistent vulnerability rather than isolated rough stretches. His start is also projected but not yet confirmed.
The workload: Both goalies carry substantial sample from the 2025-26 season, so the numbers reflect established performance rather than small noise. Because neither start is confirmed, the actual matchup could still shift before puck drop and the edge below should be read with that caveat in mind.
Overall: Kuemper holds a genuine edge here, not because he was particularly sharp, but because Askarov's 2025-26 body of work was notably weaker across every major marker. In a game involving a Sharks team that already tends to put its goaltender in difficult positions, that gap in reliability between the pipes tilts the picture toward Los Angeles. The edge is modest rather than commanding, but it runs in the same direction no matter how the numbers are cut.
Team Conditions
Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.
LASJ
Rest
Standard preparation, 3 days rest.
Standard preparation, 2 days rest.
Form
2025-26 record 35-27-20 (home 15-17-9, road 20-10-11)
2025-26 record 39-35-8 (home 21-14-6, road 18-21-2)
InjuryKey Players
O. Salin (D) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve
C. Perry (RW) - SEP 27 · Day-To-Day
J. Edmundson (D) - SEP 26 · Day-To-Day
J. Dvorak (D) - SEP 24 · Injured Reserve
J. Jenik (C) - SEP 24 · Injured Reserve
A. Gaudette (RW) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve
A. Barre-Boulet (C) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve
Q. Musty (LW) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve
C. Lund (C) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve
K. Keyser (G) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve
The Read
Kings' availability: Los Angeles is short across the blue line, with two defensemen on injured reserve and a third listed as day-to-day, creating real depth concerns on the back end. A forward is also day-to-day, though that is the lighter issue.
Sharks' availability: San Jose has a larger group unavailable, with four forwards and goaltender Keyser all on injured reserve. The forward absences thin their depth up front, and losing any goaltender to injured reserve, even a depth piece, is worth noting for roster completeness between the pipes.
Rest and form: The Kings carry a slight rest edge into this game. Preseason results carry no meaningful signal, so the more informative picture comes from the 2025-26 season, where the Kings built a notably stronger road record than home record and the Sharks were considerably better on home ice than away.
Overall: The Sharks enter on home ice where they have been a meaningfully stronger side through the 2025-26 season, and that structural advantage is real. The Kings counter with fresher legs and a road record that held up well over the course of the season. San Jose's deeper injury list, particularly the cluster of forwards on injured reserve, gives Los Angeles a modest availability edge, but the home-ice form gap is the more consequential factor separating these two teams.
Side Write-Up
The case for San Jose on home ice starts with a structural fact from the 2025-26 season: the Sharks were considerably better at SAP Center than they were on the road, and that gap in home performance is the most load-bearing piece of evidence in this matchup. The Kings carry the more complete overall profile, with a defense that ranked well inside the top quarter of the league in goals allowed, but their offense was one of the most conversion-inefficient units in the league and their power play was among the very worst, meaning they arrive in San Jose with a limited ability to generate pressure through either volume or special teams. The Sharks convert at one of the higher rates in the league and their power play sits at the league midpoint, which becomes a genuine weapon against a Kings penalty kill that ranks among the very worst shorthanded units in the league, turning every minor penalty into a legitimate scoring threat. On home ice the Sharks are well-positioned to force exactly those situations, and the combination of efficient conversion and a functional power play punishing a catastrophic penalty kill is a real mechanism, not a theoretical one. The Kings also carry a rest edge and their road record held up through the 2025-26 season, but positive road form leaning general is not the same structural advantage as a home team consistently performing better in their own building. The strongest counterargument is Kuemper holding a genuine edge over Askarov, whose body of work in the 2025-26 season was notably weaker across every major marker and who never recorded a shutout across a nearly full slate of starts. That gap between the pipes is real but it reflects individual performance rather than the team-level structural factors, and a Sharks unit that converts efficiently, punishes one of the worst penalty kills in the league, and consistently plays better hockey at home carries enough weight to support the side.
Final PickSan Jose Sharks
Total Write-Up
Both teams generate meaningful offensive output even if they arrive at it differently, with the Kings producing high shot volume despite poor conversion and the Sharks generating fewer shots but converting at one of the higher rates in the league, and the combination produces a game where scoring opportunities flow from both ends. The bigger driver toward goals is the special teams situation, where both penalty kills rank below average in the 2025-26 season and the Kings' shorthanded unit in particular is among the very worst in the league, turning power play opportunities into consistent scoring threats throughout the night. Askarov's 2025-26 season was a persistent struggle with a goals against average that ranked among the worse in the league and a save percentage below the middle of the pack, with no shutouts across a nearly full slate of starts pointing to established vulnerability rather than an isolated stretch. Kuemper was a middling performer who did just enough to keep games close without offering any real cushion against pressure, so neither goalie is positioned to suppress scoring at a high level. The strongest counterargument is the Kings' defensive structure, which ranked well inside the top quarter of the league in goals allowed and could limit the Sharks' already-low shot volume enough to keep the final number down. But Askarov's established pattern across the 2025-26 season is one of conceding at a high rate consistently rather than in isolated bursts, the Kings' bottom-tier power play means their offense cannot carry production when the defense bends, and a game with two below-average penalty kills and two goalies each carrying real vulnerabilities has far more paths to a higher-scoring result than to a locked-down one.
Final PickOver
VIMB
Written by
VIMB
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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.
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