Los Angeles Kings vs San Jose Sharks, NHL Picks

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

The case for San Jose on home ice starts with a structural fact from the 2025-26 season: the Sharks were considerably better at SAP Center than they were on the road, and that gap in home performance is the most load-bearing piece of evidence in this matchup. The Kings carry the more complete overall profile, with a defense that ranked well inside the top quarter of the league in goals allowed, but their offense was one of the most conversion-inefficient units in the league and their power play was among the very worst, meaning they arrive in San Jose with a limited ability to generate pressure through either volume or special teams. The Sharks convert at one of the higher rates in the league and their power play sits at the league midpoint, which becomes a genuine weapon against a Kings penalty kill that ranks among the very worst shorthanded units in the league, turning every minor penalty into a legitimate scoring threat. On home ice the Sharks are well-positioned to force exactly those situations, and the combination of efficient conversion and a functional power play punishing a catastrophic penalty kill is a real mechanism, not a theoretical one. The Kings also carry a rest edge and their road record held up through the 2025-26 season, but positive road form leaning general is not the same structural advantage as a home team consistently performing better in their own building. The strongest counterargument is Kuemper holding a genuine edge over Askarov, whose body of work in the 2025-26 season was notably weaker across every major marker and who never recorded a shutout across a nearly full slate of starts. That gap between the pipes is real but it reflects individual performance rather than the team-level structural factors, and a Sharks unit that converts efficiently, punishes one of the worst penalty kills in the league, and consistently plays better hockey at home carries enough weight to support the side.

Both teams generate meaningful offensive output even if they arrive at it differently, with the Kings producing high shot volume despite poor conversion and the Sharks generating fewer shots but converting at one of the higher rates in the league, and the combination produces a game where scoring opportunities flow from both ends. The bigger driver toward goals is the special teams situation, where both penalty kills rank below average in the 2025-26 season and the Kings' shorthanded unit in particular is among the very worst in the league, turning power play opportunities into consistent scoring threats throughout the night. Askarov's 2025-26 season was a persistent struggle with a goals against average that ranked among the worse in the league and a save percentage below the middle of the pack, with no shutouts across a nearly full slate of starts pointing to established vulnerability rather than an isolated stretch. Kuemper was a middling performer who did just enough to keep games close without offering any real cushion against pressure, so neither goalie is positioned to suppress scoring at a high level. The strongest counterargument is the Kings' defensive structure, which ranked well inside the top quarter of the league in goals allowed and could limit the Sharks' already-low shot volume enough to keep the final number down. But Askarov's established pattern across the 2025-26 season is one of conceding at a high rate consistently rather than in isolated bursts, the Kings' bottom-tier power play means their offense cannot carry production when the defense bends, and a game with two below-average penalty kills and two goalies each carrying real vulnerabilities has far more paths to a higher-scoring result than to a locked-down one.