Dallas Stars vs Buffalo Sabres, NHL Picks

Dallas Stars

Buffalo Sabres

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET · KeyBank Center

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from each team's real goal differential in ESPN's NHL standings.

Projected Moneyline

BUF -105

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

6.3 Goals

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

DALBUF

3.33 (9th)

Goals

(5th) 3.45

How many goals does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

25.3 (30th)

Shots

(13th) 28.1

How many shots on goal does the team take per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

13.2% (1st)

Shooting %

(5th) 12.3%

How often do the team's shots on goal go in?

(League Avg: 11.1%)

28.6% (2nd)

Power Play %

(20th) 19.5%

How often does the power play score?

(League Avg: 21.1%)

51.6% (7th)

Faceoff %

(32nd) 45.9%

How often does the team win the faceoff?

(League Avg: 50.0%)

2.71 (2nd)

Goals Allowed

(T10th) 2.93

How many goals does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

26.2 (7th)

Shots Allowed

(23rd) 29.1

How many shots on goal does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

90.2% (T8th)

Save %

(3rd) 90.7%

How often do the team's goalies stop a shot on goal?

(League Avg: 89.5%)

80.3% (13th)

Penalty Kill %

(4th) 81.9%

How often does the penalty kill keep the other team off the board?

(League Avg: 78.9%)

14.9 (10th)

Blocked Shots

(20th) 14.2

How many shots does the team block per game?

(League Avg: 14.2 Blocks/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Stars' offense: Dallas scores at an above-average clip for the 2025-26 season while generating one of the lowest shot volumes in the league, converting on more of their chances than any other team. Their power play ranks among the very best in the league, and they win faceoffs at a solid rate.

Sabres' offense: Buffalo ranks among the top scorers in the league for the 2025-26 season, built on a solid shot volume and above-average efficiency. Their power play sits well below the league midpoint, and they lose faceoffs more than any other team in the league.

Stars' defense: Dallas allows nearly the fewest goals of any team in the league for the 2025-26 season, limiting both shot volume and conversion against them. Their goaltending is solid and they block shots at an above-average rate, though their penalty kill sits near the middle of the pack.

Sabres' defense: Buffalo's goaltender ranks among the very best in the league for the 2025-26 season, compensating for a tendency to give up shots at a below-average rate. Their penalty kill is among the best in the league, setting up a genuine clash of strengths with Dallas's powerful man advantage.

Overall: Stars carry the more complete matchup for the 2025-26 season. They score without needing volume, clamp down defensively better than almost anyone, and should win possession through faceoffs against a Buffalo team that struggles there more than any other. The real battleground is special teams, where Dallas's near-top power play runs directly into one of the league's best penalty kills, and where Buffalo's top-shelf goaltending could neutralize the efficiency advantage Dallas normally enjoys at even strength.

Goalie Matchup

The two starters in net, and how each has actually played.

Jake Oettinger

G #29 · DAL

Tier

Solid

Save %

.899

Goals Against Avg

2.59

Record

35-12-6

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

DAL’s starting goalie isn’t confirmed yet. This is the projected starter.

Alex Lyon

G #34 · BUF

Tier

High-End

Save %

.907

Goals Against Avg

2.77

Record

20-10-4

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

BUF’s starting goalie isn’t confirmed yet. This is the projected starter. Listed day-to-day on the injury report.

The Read

Stars' goalie: Jake Oettinger was a reliable, high-volume workhorse for Dallas throughout the 2025-26 season, carrying a heavy starting load with solid but unspectacular numbers. He is projected to start but has not yet been confirmed.

Sabres' goalie: Alex Lyon posted a stronger stopping rate in a more limited sample during the 2025-26 season, though he is listed on the injury report ahead of this game and his start remains unconfirmed.

The workload: Oettinger's sample from the 2025-26 season is substantially larger, giving his numbers more weight as a reliable read on who he is. Lyon's sample is real but considerably smaller, and his availability for this game remains genuinely uncertain.

Overall: On pure stopping rate, Lyon holds a real edge over Oettinger, but that edge depends entirely on him taking the ice. If Lyon is healthy and confirmed, the numbers favor Buffalo in net. If he cannot go, the goaltending advantage shifts clearly to Dallas, and Oettinger's heavier body of work becomes the more dependable variable in this matchup.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

DALBUF

Rest

Standard preparation, 2 days rest.

Form

2025-26 record 50-20-12 (home 26-11-4, road 24-9-8)

2025-26 record 50-23-9 (home 26-10-5, road 24-13-4)

InjuryKey Players

M. Duchene (C) - SEP 30 · Injured Reserve

H. Scott (C) - SEP 29 · Injured Reserve

L. Krys (D) - SEP 29 · Injured Reserve

C. Hughes (C) - SEP 29 · Injured Reserve

T. Bertucci (D) - SEP 29 · Injured Reserve

O. Zellweger (D) - OCT 1 · Injured Reserve

C. Timmins (D) - SEP 29 · Injured Reserve

A. Lyon (G) - SEP 29 · Day-To-Day

M. Samuelsson (D) - SEP 29 · Injured Reserve

T. Leinonen (G) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve

The Read

Stars' availability: Dallas is missing several centers, including Duchene, who is a meaningful top-line contributor, along with a couple of defensemen on injured reserve. The center depth hit is real and worth noting, though it does not affect the crease.

Sabres' availability: Buffalo's projected starting goalie is listed as questionable, which introduces genuine uncertainty about who will be in net. They are also short multiple defensemen on injured reserve, making this a more broadly disrupted roster than the Stars'.

Rest and form: Both teams arrive on equal footing in terms of preparation time. Preseason results carry no meaningful weight, so the relevant baseline is the 2025-26 season, where the Stars posted a stronger overall record and a particularly clean road record.

Overall: The Stars come in as the better-performing team from the 2025-26 season, and their injury situation, while real at center, leaves their goaltending intact. Buffalo's most consequential question mark sits at the most leveraged position on the ice, and that unresolved goaltender situation gives Dallas the clearer condition-based edge heading into this game.

Side Write-Up

Buffalo's path to the moneyline runs through the two positions where the evidence is clearest. Alex Lyon posted a stronger stopping rate than Jake Oettinger in the 2025-26 season, and if he is confirmed to start, that goaltending edge at the most leveraged position on the ice tips the balance toward the home team. Buffalo's penalty kill ranks among the best in the league, which means Dallas's elite power play, the sharpest tool in their offensive kit, runs into one of the few units equipped to contain it. Buffalo also ranks among the league's top scorers in the 2025-26 season, carrying enough offensive floor to support a win without relying solely on goaltending to hold the line. Dallas is missing several centers, including Duchene, which is a real depth hit that compounds the faceoff disadvantage Buffalo was already positioned to exploit at home. The strongest counterargument is that Dallas carries the more complete matchup from the 2025-26 season, with a better overall record, a cleaner road log, and a defense that allows nearly the fewest goals in the league. That edge is real, but goaltending and special teams are the two factors where position-level advantages directly decide close games, and on both counts the evidence points toward Buffalo rather than Dallas.

Final PickBuffalo Sabres

Total Write-Up

Dallas running one of the most defensively compact systems in the league, combined with goaltending from both sides that limits conversion, draws the ceiling down on how many goals this game is likely to produce. The Stars allowed nearly the fewest goals of any team in the league during the 2025-26 season, and their suppression works on two levels: they limit both the volume of shots and the rate at which opponents convert them, which is a rare combination. Alex Lyon ranked among the very best goaltenders in the league in the 2025-26 season by stopping rate, adding a second layer of suppression on the other end of the ice. Buffalo's penalty kill is among the best in the league, which neutralizes Dallas's power play before even-strength scoring comes into play, removing one of the most reliable goal-production mechanisms Dallas carries into road games. Dallas also scores without needing volume, running a controlled offensive style that tends to keep overall event totals tight rather than driving high-scoring exchanges. The counterargument is that Buffalo ranks among the league's top scorers and Dallas's power play ranks among the best in the league, meaning both teams carry genuine offensive capacity that could push the total higher. But Dallas's defense limits conversion as well as volume, which constrains what Buffalo's offense can produce even when generating chances, and a Buffalo team that loses faceoffs more than any other team in the league will spend extended portions of this game defending rather than attacking.

Final PickUnder

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