St. Louis Blues vs Nashville Predators, NHL Picks

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

St. Louis gets the nod on the moneyline on the back of a genuine goaltending edge and a defensive structure that holds up better than Nashville's when you strip away the special teams noise. Joel Hofer was one of the stronger starters in the league during the 2025-26 season, posting a high save rate with multiple shutouts, while Juuse Saros went the entire 2025-26 season without a single shutout and settled into average territory well below his reputation. That gap between the pipes is large enough to swing a close game, and close games are what both offenses project to produce given how little either team generates at even strength. The Blues also allow fewer goals and fewer shots against than Nashville across the 2025-26 season, making them the more structurally sound defensive unit even with a depleted roster. The strongest counterargument is Nashville's special teams edge, where a top-third power play runs directly into one of the worst penalty kills in the league, and that collision is real and dangerous. But Nashville's offense still sits in the lower half of the league at even strength, Saros is not a wall capable of stealing a game the way Hofer is, and a Blues team that plays tight defensively and gets above-average goaltending can absolutely hold in a low-margin road win even with its roster gaps.

The under finds support from nearly every offensive signal in this matchup, with both teams projecting as genuine bottom-half scoring units in the 2025-26 season and neither carrying the kind of firepower that forces games over totals on its own. The Blues rank among the fewest shot-generating teams in the league, their power play is one of the least effective in the league, and even Nashville's leaky even-strength defense may not see enough pressure to give up big numbers against a short-staffed Blues attack. Nashville's offense generates around average shot volume but has struggled to convert at even strength, leaving the bulk of their offensive identity in special teams situations rather than sustained five-on-five pressure. Hofer's strong 2025-26 season gives the Blues a genuine backstop capable of keeping the game tight even when Nashville does find good looks, and that matters in a game where Saros's inconsistency does not provide the same ceiling in the other direction. The case against the under is Nashville's power play colliding with St. Louis's penalty kill, which ranks near the bottom of the league and is the single most credible path to this game going over. That threat is real, but it requires Nashville to draw penalties at a high rate and convert consistently, and their even-strength offense is not adding enough volume on top of it to reliably push past a total in a game between two structurally low-scoring teams.