San Jose Sharks vs Montreal Canadiens, NHL Picks

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Montreal carries a structural advantage in nearly every dimension of this matchup. The Canadiens rank among the better offenses in the league in the 2025-26 season, powered by shooting efficiency that sits near the top of the entire league, and they bring that attack against a Sharks defensive group that ranks near the very bottom in goals and shots surrendered. Askarov has been a liability in net all season, consistently allowing goals at a rate that puts pressure on his teammates, while Dobes has been a genuine floor for Montreal, outperforming his counterpart across every efficiency measure. San Jose is also playing the second night of a back-to-back with no recovery time, bringing a fatigued roster and thinned center depth into a road game at Bell Centre. The Sharks lose faceoffs at one of the highest rates in the league, which compounds the problem against a Montreal club that wins faceoffs and runs an above-average power play against one of the worst penalty kills in the league. The one real counterargument is the Canadiens' goaltending situation, with Montembeault on injured reserve pushing them to a backup option, but Dobes has posted a strong save rate and winning record in the 2025-26 season and that uncertainty does not come close to offsetting the rest and quality gap between these two sides. Montreal is the better team, better rested, at home, with the better goalie on the ice.

Several layers of this matchup point toward an elevated scoring environment. The Canadiens own shooting efficiency that ranks among the very best in the 2025-26 season and they direct it at a Sharks defense that bleeds goals and ranks near the bottom of the league, a collision that structurally inflates the expected goal count on one end of the ice. Askarov compounds that dynamic, as his below-average save rate through the 2025-26 season means sustained Montreal pressure will convert at a higher rate than it would against a league-average goaltender. The Sharks have their own finishing rate that sits in the upper portion of the league, so while their defense is a sieve, their forwards are capable of producing on the chances they do get, and they send that attack against a Canadiens group that gives up goals at a roughly league-average rate. San Jose's penalty kill is one of the worst in the league and Montreal runs an above-average power play, meaning every infraction becomes a genuine scoring threat that adds expected volume. The Bell Centre and indoor arena conditions are a non-factor. The strongest counterargument is Montreal's league-leading blocked shots total, which signals a team that actively suppresses lanes and limits quality chances against, and that real defensive structure could keep the Sharks' volume down, but the combination of elite Canadiens shooting efficiency against a porous Sharks defense and a below-average goaltender on the road produces enough expected goals from Montreal alone to push the total higher regardless of what San Jose generates.