Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues, NHL Picks

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

St. Louis gets the nod here on the strength of Joel Hofer in net, and that advantage does not need much help to carry the pick. Hofer finished the 2025-26 season as one of the more consistent starters in the league, posting a high shutout count and a save rate that opponents had to genuinely account for, and he is confirmed in the crease tonight. On the other side, Stuart Skinner was among the less reliable starters in the league during the 2025-26 season, giving up goals at a rate that put him in the bottom tier, and with Connor Hellebuyck on injured reserve the Jets are riding him without a safety net. The Blues also hold home ice and carry the stronger overall record from the 2025-26 season into this one, which matters in a tight matchup between two evenly flawed rosters. The strongest counterargument is the Jets' recent form: they have won more often than not across their latest outings while the Blues have been sliding, dropping more games than they have won over the same stretch. That form gap is real, but one hot stretch does not close the distance between a genuinely strong goalie and a genuinely below-average one, and in a game where a single goal could decide things, that goaltending edge compounds in St. Louis's favor from the first whistle. Krug's absence from the blue line does dull the Blues' offensive capability and weakens their power play setup, but the Jets' penalty kill is the more reliable unit anyway, which partially neutralizes what Krug would have brought. The goaltending gap between Hofer and Skinner is the single biggest lever in this matchup, and it points squarely to St. Louis.

Both offenses came into the 2025-26 season as two of the quieter units in the league, and nothing in this matchup suggests the scoring floodgates will open tonight. The Jets ranked near the bottom of the league in goals and shot volume, and the Blues ranked even lower in shot generation, sitting near the very bottom of the league in that category. Both defenses are also below average and have allowed more than their share of goals throughout the 2025-26 season, but the presence of Joel Hofer in net for St. Louis puts a genuine ceiling on what Winnipeg can realistically generate against him, given how consistently he performed during the 2025-26 season. Skinner on the Jets' side has been a vulnerability all season, but the Blues' offense has been so limited in production, converting at only a marginally better rate than a Jets group that itself struggles, that exploiting him feels uncertain at best. The strongest counterargument to the under is that both penalty kills are weak units, meaning special teams could inflate the scoring in a game where even a modest power-play sequence might be the most dangerous sequence either team generates. That concern has weight, but weak penalty kills only matter when the power play on the other side can capitalize, and both power plays rank among the worst in the league during the 2025-26 season, with the Blues' unit in particular sitting near the bottom. Add in the Jets' faceoff advantage, which should help them control puck possession and limit open ice, and this game has every structural condition pointing toward a low-scoring, defensively grinding result that settles comfortably under the total.