SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen, Soccer Picks

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Every primary signal in this matchup points the same direction. Leverkusen's attack averaging 2.22 goals per game runs into a Paderborn defense that has conceded 1.22 per game, and Paderborn's attack averaging 0.89 per game faces a Leverkusen defense giving up 1.89. On the road specifically, Paderborn have managed zero wins and three losses in four away matches; Leverkusen at home have won three of four. The last five games tell a similar story: Leverkusen have collected 10 points, Paderborn four, and Paderborn have been held scoreless in three of their last five. The honest counterargument is that Leverkusen's defense has been porous (1.89 conceded per game), and their recent 2-3 loss at Elversberg shows they can be beaten. That concern is real, but Paderborn's away record and anemic attack make it hard to see them capitalizing on it.

The raw averages for both sides combine for roughly 3.1 goals per game, sitting just below the 3.75 threshold. Their last five games averaged 3.2 total goals, also under the number. Paderborn have been shut out in three of their last five, and their 0.89 goals per game on the season is the floor dragging this total down. The counterargument is that Leverkusen scored four goals twice in their last five and their defense has been open, which could push the final total higher. Even so, the combined scoring averages and Paderborn's consistent offensive struggles point toward a game that stays under.