Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest, Soccer Picks

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Chelsea's output at both ends of the pitch is the clearest case here. They score more than twice what Forest score per game, and their points-per-game rate nearly doubles Forest's. Chelsea have taken 7 points from their last five league games; Forest have taken 5, and Forest's home record of 1-1-3 shows they have not been a reliable fortress. Chelsea as a road side have gone 2-0-3, so wins away from home have come, though not at a high rate. The honest counterargument is that Chelsea's last three away games read L, D, L, and their defense has been leaky, giving up 1.6 goals per game. That said, they are facing a Forest attack averaging 0.9 goals per game, which is the worst in this matchup, and Chelsea's overall gap in production and league standing is wide enough that the away form concern does not change the picture.

On paper, Chelsea score 1.9 goals per game and Forest concede 1.3; Forest score 0.9 and Chelsea concede 1.6. Adding those two attacking and defensive rates together points toward roughly 2.9 goals in this match. The last five games for each side averaged 3.1 total goals, with Chelsea's recent results including a 3-2, a 4-3, and a 3-0. The counterargument is that Forest's home games have included a 0-0 and a 0-1, so they can play low-scoring matches at their own ground. Chelsea's attack averaging close to two goals per game is the main reason the over still looks like the right side.