What is a moneyline bet?
Written by Short answer
Moneyline = just pick the winner.-150: risk $150 to win $100.+130: risk $100 to win $130.The odds tell you the break-even win rate.
Moneyline is the simplest bet in sports. Pick who wins. No spread, no points. The only catch is the price.
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The favorite: minus odds
-150 means you risk $150 to win $100. Bet $15 and you win $10. The bigger the minus number, the bigger the favorite and the less you get paid.
The underdog: plus odds
+130 means you risk $100 to win $130. Bet $10 and you win $13. The bigger the plus number, the bigger the underdog.
| Odds | Bet | Profit if it wins | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| -200 | $100 | $50.00 | 66.7% |
| -150 | $100 | $66.67 | 60.0% |
| +130 | $100 | $130.00 | 43.5% |
| +250 | $100 | $250.00 | 28.6% |
Minus odds: 150 ÷ (150 + 100) = 60%. Plus odds: 100 ÷ (130 + 100) = 43.5%
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My take
Favorites aren't safe and underdogs aren't value. A -300 favorite has to win 75% of the time just to break even. The only question that matters is whether the price is right.