Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies, MLB Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Thu, Sep 24 · 3:10 PM ET · Coors Field

‹›

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

ARI -150

Projected Total

9.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

ARICOL

4.4 (T18th)

Runs

(T6th) 4.7

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.713 (20th)

OPS

(5th) 0.741

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

31.6% (T16th)

OBP

(7th) 32.4%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.397 (T20th)

SLG

(4th) 0.417

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

154 (26th)

(20th) 169

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 176 HR)

8.2 (T14th)

Hits

(T4th) 8.6

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.4% (T13th)

AVG

(4th) 25.4%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

101 (T15th)

(14th) 102

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 104 SB)

4.4 (T12th)

Runs Allowed

(30th) 5.8

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.09 (12th)

ERA

(30th) 5.62

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.28 (T11th)

WHIP

(30th) 1.54

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

7.09 (29th)

K/9

(30th) 7.03

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.48 K/9)

171 (17th)

HR Allowed

(28th) 211

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 176 HR)

8.4 (T19th)

Hits Allowed

(30th) 10.1

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.8% (T20th)

BAA

(30th) 28.9%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.9% (T2nd)

FLD%

(T27th) 98.2%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

Arizona's offense: A below-average lineup that gets on base at a middling clip and sits near the bottom of the league in power. They make contact at a decent rate but don't punish pitchers when they get their pitch.

Colorado's offense: One of the better offenses in baseball, ranking near the top of the league in hits, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. They sustain rallies and score runs at a rate well above the league norm.

Arizona's pitching: Above average across the board, limiting runs and controlling baserunners at a rate that lands them comfortably in the better half of the league. They rank among the worst in baseball at missing bats, but one of the best defenses in the sport behind them picks up the slack.

Colorado's pitching: Last in the league in every meaningful category, from earned runs allowed to walks to hits to batting average against. This is the most hittable pitching staff in baseball by a wide margin.

Overall: The central mismatch here is Arizona's solid pitching stepping in against a Colorado staff that sits at the very bottom of the sport, giving even a modest Arizona offense a significant upgrade in context. Colorado's lineup is legitimately dangerous and will test Arizona's contact-prone staff, but their pitching is so far below league average that Arizona holds a clear overall edge. The gap on the mound more than compensates for the gap in offensive firepower.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Merrill Kelly

RIGHTY · ARI

Rank

#5 · Back-End

Record

9-14

ERA

5.00

ARI vs Righties

(Season)

53-60

ARI vs Righties

(Season OPS)

5th of 30

ARI vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

3rd of 30

ARI’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

Gabriel Hughes

RIGHTY · COL

Rank

#7 · Back-End

Record

0-8

ERA

6.37

COL vs Righties

(Season)

39-66

COL vs Righties

(Season OPS)

20th of 30

COL vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

13th of 30

COL’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

Arizona's starter: Merrill Kelly is a back-end arm who has been punished this season, carrying homer-prone and walk-heavy tendencies that leave him vulnerable in any ballpark. He has not generated elite swing-and-miss this year, which means he relies on contact going his way rather than putting hitters away on his own terms.

Colorado's starter: Gabriel Hughes sits at the very bottom of his own rotation and has the results to prove it, giving up contact in bunches while opponents have found him consistently all season. The one thing working for him is that he keeps the ball in the yard, but the overall contact profile makes him a real liability.

The lineups: Arizona's offense has been one of the sharpest units in baseball against right-handed pitching this season, and that form has actually intensified lately, ranking among the very best in the sport over the past few weeks. Colorado's lineup against the same hand is the clearer weakness here, sitting in the back half of the league for most of the year with only a modest uptick recently.

Overall: The mound edge tonight belongs to Arizona in a relative sense, though neither starter inspires real confidence. Hughes has been the more consistently punished arm all season, and he now faces an Arizona lineup that has been one of the hottest units in baseball against right-handed pitching lately. Kelly carries his own risks, but Colorado's lineup simply has not hit this hand well enough to take consistent advantage, making Arizona's bats the most decisive factor in how this game plays out.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

ARICOL

Bullpen

3.92 ERA

(12th of 30)

4.91 ERA

(27th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

T. Locklear (1B) - SEP 12

R. Thompson (RP) - SEP 1

A. Puk (RP) - AUG 7

A. Saalfrank (RP) - JUL 18

C. Mena (RP) - JUN 1

H. Goodman (C) - SEP 17

W. Castro (2B) - SEP 17

J. Quintana (SP) - SEP 15

C. Dollander (SP) - JUN 23

W. Herrera (RP) - JUN 2

M. Brown (SP) - MAY 31

R. Petit (RP) - MAY 8

P. Ohl (RP) - MAY 8

K. Bryant (DH) - MAY 8

The Read

Arizona's bullpen: Arizona carries one of the stronger bullpens in the league, with the closer and setup arms both fresh tonight. Middle relief has been leaned on more than usual and the long man is likely unavailable, but the core late inning options are in solid shape.

Colorado's bullpen: Colorado's bullpen ranks among the worst in the league, and tonight it is thinner than usual, with one setup arm potentially limited and the long reliever also unavailable. The closer has been used recently, which adds a layer of uncertainty if this game stays tight late.

Rest: Both teams come in well rested with no travel burden, so rest is not a factor in either direction tonight.

Injuries: Colorado is carrying a notably heavier injury load, with key contributors lost at catcher (Goodman), second base (Castro), and in the rotation (Quintana and Dollander). Arizona is missing several bullpen arms but none are flagged as key pieces, keeping their injury picture in the category of depth concerns rather than lineup damage.

Overall: Conditions lean toward Arizona tonight. Their bullpen is significantly stronger and better positioned depth wise, while Colorado is absorbing meaningful attrition at key spots alongside an already shaky relief corps. The rest situation is a wash, so the gap in bullpen quality and Colorado's concentrated key injuries are where this edge lives.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

80°F

Coors Field

Open Air

Ballpark: Strong Hitter-Friendly (1st of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Warm air adds carry (~3 ft on fly balls) — Favors Hitters

Wind: 7mph Blowing In → Slight Pitcher Advantage

The Read

Ballpark: Coors Field is the most run-generous environment in the sport, where thin air extends fly balls and pitchers rarely escape without damage. Even below-average lineups tend to find extra life here.

Weather: Warm temperatures add extra carry to well-struck balls tonight, layering on top of the altitude effect and keeping conditions tilted toward hitters. The wind blowing in provides a modest check, giving pitchers a slight edge on balls tracking toward the warning track.

Overall: The park and warm air together create a genuine lean toward the over, and Colorado's lineup is legitimately built for this setting, ranking near the top of the league in slugging and overall production. Arizona has been one of the quieter offensive groups in baseball this season, but Coors has a history of flattering even low-output lineups. The inbound wind softens the lean without erasing it, so conditions point toward the over with moderate conviction rather than a clear hammer.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 24

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 24

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

On this page

Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up