Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays, MLB Picks

Cincinnati Reds

Toronto Blue Jays

Fri, Sep 25 · 7:07 PM ET · Rogers Centre

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

TOR -140

Projected Total

8.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

CINTOR

4.1 (T26th)

Runs

(T29th) 4.0

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.703 (24th)

OPS

(T27th) 0.693

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

30.7% (30th)

OBP

(26th) 31.0%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.396 (24th)

SLG

(26th) 0.383

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.401 SLG)

203 (4th)

(T28th) 148

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 177 HR)

7.6 (30th)

Hits

(T7th) 8.4

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

23.0% (30th)

AVG

(T8th) 24.8%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

105 (13th)

(T26th) 75

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 104 SB)

5.1 (28th)

Runs Allowed

(T10th) 4.3

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.87 (28th)

ERA

(9th) 3.91

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.45 (28th)

WHIP

(T15th) 1.30

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

8.20 (20th)

K/9

(10th) 8.79

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.49 K/9)

204 (T26th)

HR Allowed

(8th) 158

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 177 HR)

8.7 (T26th)

Hits Allowed

(T8th) 7.9

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.4% (T25th)

BAA

(T7th) 23.6%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.4% (T19th)

FLD%

(T23rd) 98.3%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Matchup Breakdown

Cincinnati's offense: They rank at the very bottom of the league in batting average and hits per game, making them one of the least capable contact offenses in baseball, and their ability to get on base is equally scarce. Their one genuine weapon is raw power, with a home run total that sits among the league's best despite the struggles everywhere else.

Toronto's offense: They make contact at a rate that places them comfortably among the better teams in the league, with a batting average to match, but their power and run production sit near the bottom of baseball. Toronto reaches base through contact but consistently fails to convert those opportunities into runs.

Toronto's pitching: Toronto brings one of the better staffs in the league, ranking in the top third in runs allowed, earned run average, and strikeout rate while holding opposing hitters to one of the weaker batting averages in baseball. They are the clearest strength in this matchup.

Cincinnati's pitching: Cincinnati's pitching staff ranks near the very bottom of the league in virtually every meaningful category, giving up hits, runs, and home runs at rates that place them among the most vulnerable rotations in baseball. There is no reliable stopper in this group.

Overall: The sharpest collision in this game is Toronto's contact-driven offense running into Cincinnati's pitching that ranks among the worst in baseball at preventing hits and limiting damage, a matchup that strongly favors the home side. Cincinnati's best hope rests on the long ball, but Toronto's pitching has been solid at keeping the ball in the park, blunting that threat. Toronto holds the more complete picture here, with a genuine pitching advantage and an offense built on the kind of contact that tends to punish a vulnerable staff.

Pitching Matchup

Tonight's probable starters, with how each opposing lineup handles their throwing hand.

Nick Lodolo

LEFTY · CIN

Rank

#3 · Mid-Rotation

Record

3-5

ERA

5.12

CIN vs Lefties

(Season)

54-59

CIN vs Lefties

(Season OPS)

28th of 30

CIN vs Lefties

(L20 OPS)

19th of 30

CIN’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

José Soriano

RIGHTY · TOR

Rank

#5 · Back-End

Record

12-7

ERA

3.56

TOR vs Righties

(Season)

23-21

TOR vs Righties

(Season OPS)

24th of 30

TOR vs Righties

(L20 OPS)

24th of 30

TOR’s pitcher is unconfirmed. This game will not be ranked today.

The Read

Cincinnati's starter: Nick Lodolo has been a below-average arm this season, struggling to keep the ball in the yard and carrying a losing record that reflects how hitters have gotten to him consistently.

Toronto's starter: José Soriano has pitched well above his rotation billing this year, keeping the ball on the ground, limiting extra-base damage, and building a winning record that suggests genuine reliability.

The lineups: Cincinnati has been one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching all season, and while they have shown some recovery against that hand recently, they remain well below average. Toronto has been consistently below average against left-handed pitching both on the season and over the last few weeks, though their weakness against Lodolo's hand is far less severe than Cincinnati's weakness against Soriano's.

Overall: The mound edge belongs clearly to Toronto tonight. Soriano is a ground-ball, contact-suppressing pitcher who draws one of the most vulnerable lineups in the league against right-handed pitching, a combination that lines up in his favor. Lodolo brings a home run prone, below-average profile to the mound and faces a Toronto offense that, while not strong against lefties, is not nearly as compromised against his arm as Cincinnati is against Soriano's.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

CINTOR

Bullpen

4.73 ERA

(25th of 30)

3.69 ERA

(7th of 30)

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

Closer is rested and ready.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Setup relievers are rested and ready.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Long reliever pitched recently but has had a day to recover.

Rest

Home for several days.

Had a rest day before this trip.

No travel concerns.

No major travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

S. Steer (1B) - SEP 18

J. Garcia (RP) - SEP 18

B. Dunn (CF) - SEP 15

M. Toglia (1B) - SEP 4

H. Greene (SP) - AUG 13

A. Gimenez (SS) - SEP 18

A. Santander (RF) - SEP 18

S. Bieber (SP) - SEP 18

T. Yesavage (SP) - SEP 16

J. Taillon (SP) - SEP 15

R. Martin Jr. (RF) - SEP 14

C. Ponce (SP) - SEP 7

P. Corbin (SP) - SEP 7

J. Clase (LF) - AUG 27

Y. Garcia (RP) - AUG 26

J. Bloss (SP) - AUG 12

L. Urias (2B) - AUG 10

A. Barger (RF) - JUL 27

J. Berrios (SP) - MAY 27

B. Francis (SP) - MAY 8

The Read

Cincinnati's bullpen: Ranking near the bottom of the league, the Reds pen comes in tonight with availability questions at multiple leverage levels, including a long reliever who may be off the table and a setup arm that could be limited. The manager has been leaning on middle relief more than normal, which means the unit is stretched even before the first pitch.

Toronto's bullpen: One of the better relief corps in the league, the Blue Jays have their closer fully rested and their setup arms ready to go. Both clubs are working their middle relief harder than ideal, but Toronto enters tonight with considerably more depth and fresher arms at the top of their pen.

Rest: Both teams are in a comfortable spot physically, with no notable travel burden or back-to-back fatigue issues for either side. This category is essentially a wash.

Injuries: Toronto is carrying a significantly heavier injury load, with multiple key starting pitchers (Bieber, Taillon, Corbin, Berrios, Yesavage) sidelined alongside key position players Gimenez and Barger. Cincinnati loses Steer and Greene as key names, which matters, but the volume and positional impact of Toronto's absences is considerably larger.

Overall: Bullpen conditions tonight clearly favor Toronto, whose relief corps is both higher quality and better rested than Cincinnati's stretched and availability-limited unit. The injury picture complicates things for Toronto, particularly the depth of their rotation losses, though those absences bear more on roster construction than on tonight's bullpen. If this game is decided by relief pitching, the edge belongs squarely to the Blue Jays.

Weather and Ballpark

Game-time conditions and how this park actually plays.

62°F

Rogers Centre

Open Air

Ballpark: Slightly Hitter-Friendly (9th of 30 in Runs)

Temperature: Cool air slightly reduces carry — Slight Pitcher Advantage

Wind: 4mph Crosswind to Right Field → Neutral

The Read

Ballpark: Rogers Centre sits comfortably in the upper half of the league in run production, giving hitters a modest but real edge on most nights. The retractable roof keeps conditions stable, which preserves that offensive tilt rather than erasing it.

Weather: Cool air tonight takes a bit of carry off the ball, softening what the park normally gives hitters and nudging the environment slightly toward pitchers. The light crosswind blowing toward right field is barely a factor, falling well short of the threshold where direction or strength would meaningfully shape fly ball outcomes.

Overall: The park leans toward offense but both of these lineups rank near the bottom of the league in slugging and overall production, meaning neither side is well positioned to take full advantage of the venue. Cincinnati carries a meaningful power edge over Toronto, but that edge lands against a home team equally quiet at the plate. Cool air dampening carry further blunts what little pop these two offenses bring, and the overall picture tilts toward the under rather than the over.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 25

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 25

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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