Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays, MLB Picks

Cincinnati Reds

Toronto Blue Jays

Sun, Sep 27 · 3:07 PM ET

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Market Action

Opens shortly

Odds haven't been tracked for this game yet. The moneyline and total graphs, splits, and sharp-money read publish here once the market opens.

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

TOR -160

Projected Total

8.5

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

CINTOR

4.1 (T27th)

Runs

(T29th) 4.0

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.699 (25th)

OPS

(27th) 0.694

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

30.6% (30th)

OBP

(T24th) 31.1%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.9%)

0.393 (25th)

SLG

(26th) 0.383

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.400 SLG)

204 (4th)

(T28th) 149

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 179 HR)

7.6 (30th)

Hits

(T7th) 8.4

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

22.9% (30th)

AVG

(T8th) 24.8%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

107 (T12th)

(27th) 75

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 106 SB)

5.2 (28th)

Runs Allowed

(T10th) 4.3

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.89 (28th)

ERA

(9th) 3.91

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.18 ERA)

1.45 (28th)

WHIP

(T15th) 1.30

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.31 WHIP)

8.19 (21st)

K/9

(10th) 8.81

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.49 K/9)

209 (27th)

HR Allowed

(8th) 160

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 179 HR)

8.7 (T27th)

Hits Allowed

(T7th) 7.9

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.5% (27th)

BAA

(T7th) 23.6%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

98.4% (T19th)

FLD%

(T24th) 98.3%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Pitching Matchup

Opens shortly

Probable starters haven't been announced yet. The full pitching breakdown publishes here once both teams name a starter.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

CINTOR

Bullpen

4.76 ERA

(25th of 30)

3.67 ERA

(7th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Setup relievers have been worked hard recently.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

Home for several days.

Had a rest day before this trip.

No travel concerns.

No major travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

C. Burns (SP) - SEP 20

S. Steer (1B) - SEP 18

J. Garcia (RP) - SEP 18

B. Dunn (CF) - SEP 15

M. Toglia (1B) - SEP 4

H. Greene (SP) - AUG 13

D. Cease (SP) - SEP 21

V. Guerrero Jr. (1B) - SEP 21

A. Santander (RF) - SEP 18

S. Bieber (SP) - SEP 18

J. Taillon (SP) - SEP 15

R. Martin Jr. (RF) - SEP 14

C. Ponce (SP) - SEP 7

P. Corbin (SP) - SEP 7

J. Clase (LF) - AUG 27

Y. Garcia (RP) - AUG 26

J. Bloss (SP) - AUG 12

L. Urias (2B) - AUG 10

A. Barger (RF) - JUL 27

J. Berrios (SP) - MAY 27

B. Francis (SP) - MAY 8

Weather and Ballpark

Opens shortly

Game-time conditions aren't meaningful yet this far out. The real forecast and ballpark read publish here a couple days before first pitch.

Side Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 27

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Total Write-Up

🔒 Final pick drops September 27

The pick may already be decided, but it stays under wraps until the day before first pitch -- so it can't be second-guessed by a week of news, lineup, or line movement.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up

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