Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres, MLB Picks

Chicago Cubs

San Diego Padres

Tue, Sep 29 · 6:33 AM ET

‹›

Market Action

CHC @ SD

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler.

Projected Moneyline

CHC -105

Market

CHC +111

Projected Total

Market

7 (O -114 / U +105)

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

CHCSD

5.2 (1st)

Runs

(T16th) 4.4

How many runs does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

0.765 (1st)

OPS

(T17th) 0.717

How strong is the team's overall offense?

(League Avg: 0.719 OPS)

33.8% (T2nd)

OBP

(T11th) 31.9%

How often does the team get on base per plate appearance?

(League Avg: 31.8%)

0.427 (1st)

SLG

(T19th) 0.398

How many total bases does the team average per at-bat?

(League Avg: 0.400 SLG)

218 (3rd)

(T14th) 182

How many home runs has the team hit this season?

(League Avg: 185 HR)

8.6 (T5th)

Hits

(T17th) 8.1

How many hits does the team get per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

25.1% (6th)

AVG

(T16th) 24.4%

How often does the team get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

114 (10th)

(3rd) 163

How many bases has the team stolen this season?

(League Avg: 109 SB)

4.4 (T12th)

Runs Allowed

(9th) 4.2

How many runs does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 4.5 Runs/Game)

4.13 (14th)

ERA

(10th) 3.99

How many earned runs do pitchers allow per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 4.17 ERA)

1.26 (T8th)

WHIP

(T15th) 1.30

How many runners do pitchers allow per inning?

(League Avg: 1.30 WHIP)

7.84 (26th)

K/9

(19th) 8.27

How many strikeouts do pitchers get per 9 innings?

(League Avg: 8.50 K/9)

230 (29th)

HR Allowed

(15th) 180

How many home runs has the team allowed this season?

(League Avg: 185 HR)

8.2 (17th)

Hits Allowed

(T11th) 8.0

How many hits does the team allow per game?

(League Avg: 8.2 Hits/Game)

24.3% (T16th)

BAA

(15th) 24.2%

How often do opponents get a hit per at-bat?

(League Avg: 24.4%)

99.0% (1st)

FLD%

(T2nd) 98.9%

How often does the defense avoid errors?

(League Avg: 98.6%)

Pitching Matchup

Opens shortly

Probable starters haven't been announced yet. The full pitching breakdown publishes here once both teams name a starter.

Team Conditions

Bullpen health, schedule rest, and the current injury list.

CHCSD

Bullpen

3.93 ERA

(13th of 30)

3.50 ERA

(5th of 30)

Closer is rested and ready.

Closer pitched recently but should be OK.

One setup reliever may be limited tonight.

Middle relief has been used a bit.

Manager is leaning on middle relief more than usual.

Long reliever was just used and may be unavailable.

Rest

No day off before this road game.

Home for several days.

Limited time to recover.

No travel concerns.

InjuryKey Players

E. Cabrera (SP) - SEP 25

J. Steele (SP) - SEP 24

K. Gausman (SP) - SEP 24

S. Miller (RP) - SEP 15

T. Thornton (RP) - SEP 12

B. Brown (RP) - SEP 3

P. Maton (RP) - AUG 19

R. Martin (RP) - AUG 19

H. Harvey (RP) - AUG 19

P. Hodge (RP) - MAY 8

C. Horton (SP) - MAY 8

T. Austin (1B) - MAY 8

C. Mize (SP) - SEP 26

J. Musgrove (SP) - SEP 24

M. Andujar (DH) - SEP 24

J. Estrada (RP) - SEP 12

R. Laureano (LF) - SEP 12

L. Rengifo (LF) - SEP 1

L. Giolito (SP) - AUG 24

B. Hoeing (RP) - MAY 8

Weather and Ballpark

Opens shortly

Game-time conditions aren't meaningful yet this far out. The real forecast and ballpark read publish here a couple days before first pitch.

Side Write-Up

Opens shortly

This write-up is being put together right now. It'll be here shortly.

Total Write-Up

Opens shortly

The final pick is locked until real market data exists, so it can't be second-guessed by a few hours of line movement. Check back once the market opens.

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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Market Action Model Projection Offense & Defense Pitching Matchup Team Conditions Weather & Ballpark Side Write-Up Total Write-Up

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