Chicago State Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions, College Basketball Picks

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:00 PM ET · Gersten Pavilion

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from ESPN's own real college basketball power index.

Projected Spread

LMU -13.5

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

144

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Moneyline

LMU -790

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

CHSTLMU

65.8 (350th)

Points

(T226th) 74.2

How many points does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 75.7 Pts/Game)

40.5% (355th)

Field Goal %

(143rd) 45.8%

How often does the offense make a shot from the field?

(League Avg: 45.1%)

31.8% (299th)

3-Point %

(126th) 34.9%

How often does the offense make a three point shot?

(League Avg: 34.0%)

74.2% (124th)

Free Throw %

(254th) 70.4%

How often does the offense make a free throw?

(League Avg: 72.4%)

11.7 (329th)

Assists

(235th) 13.2

How many assists does the offense record per game?

(League Avg: 14.0 Ast/Game)

10.5 (T79th)

Turnovers

(233rd) 12.0

How many turnovers does the offense give away per game?

(League Avg: 11.6 TO/Game)

76.1 (238th)

Points Allowed

(126th) 72.1

How many points does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 74.0 Pts/Game)

20.4 (363rd)

Defensive Rebounds

(150th) 24.9

How many defensive rebounds does the team grab per game?

(League Avg: 24.5 Reb/Game)

8.2 (41st)

Steals

(T235th) 6.1

How many steals does the defense record per game?

(League Avg: 6.7 Stl/Game)

1.2 (365th)

Blocks

(T72nd) 4.1

How many shots does the defense block per game?

(League Avg: 3.4 Blk/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Chicago State's offense: One of the least productive offenses in Division I during the 2025-26 season, struggling to score and shooting poorly from the field. They take care of the ball reasonably well, but that is about the only area where they hold their own against the rest of the country.

Loyola Marymount's offense: A middle-of-the-pack offense that shoots noticeably better from the field and from three than Chicago State, putting up a decent scoring total by Division I standards. Their ball movement is average and they give the ball away a bit more freely, but their shooting efficiency gives them a clear edge.

Loyola Marymount's defense: Better than average for Division I in the 2025-26 season, with solid shot-blocking and competent defensive rebounding keeping opponents from getting second-chance looks. They hold opponents to fewer points than most programs at this level.

Chicago State's defense: Among the weakest in all of Division I in the 2025-26 season, particularly on the glass where their defensive rebounding is about as poor as any team in the country. They do force turnovers at a genuinely impressive rate, but that one bright spot cannot mask how exposed they are everywhere else.

Overall: Loyola Marymount holds a clear advantage on both sides of the ball heading into this matchup. The Lions' shooting efficiency runs directly into Chicago State's inability to stop opponents from scoring and crashing the offensive glass, and LMU's defense is well equipped to slow down an offense as limited as the Cougars'. Chicago State's turnover-forcing ability is real, but it is not enough to offset the gap in shooting, scoring, and defensive structure that separates these two programs.

Scorer Matchup

Each team's real detected leading scorer, and how he has actually played.

Mike Price

G · CHST

Tier

Bench Piece

Points/Game

6.5

Rebounds/Game

1.1

Assists/Game

0.8

Field Goal %

36.4%

3-Point %

32.3%

Free Throw %

70.4%

2025-26 season numbers

Zion Sensley

G · LMU

Tier

Role Player

Points/Game

10.9

Rebounds/Game

7.6

Assists/Game

0.8

Field Goal %

43.5%

3-Point %

36.0%

Free Throw %

82.4%

2025-26 season numbers

The Read

Chicago State's leading scorer: Mike Price has functioned as a bench piece in the 2025-26 season, contributing modest scoring off the reserve unit rather than driving the offense from a featured role.

Loyola Marymount's leading scorer: Zion Sensley has operated as a productive role player in the 2025-26 season, combining real scoring punch with strong rebounding that makes him a genuine two-way contributor on most nights.

The efficiency: Sensley has shot the ball considerably better from the field and from deep while also converting at a high clip from the stripe, whereas Price has struggled with efficiency across all three shooting categories, limiting the impact of his attempts.

Overall: Sensley holds a clear edge over Price both in volume and in how well he converts his opportunities, and his rebounding adds a dimension Price simply does not match. Chicago State's leading scorer is a reserve-level contributor going up against a player who fills multiple columns on the stat sheet, which represents a meaningful mismatch in the scorer matchup panel regardless of how the rest of the rosters compare.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

CHSTLMU

Rest

Playing on a genuine back to back, no rest since the last game.

Standard preparation, 2 days rest.

Form

2025-26 record 7-25 (home 5-6, road 2-19)

2025-26 record 15-17 (home 10-8, road 4-7)

InjuryKey Players

None reported

The Read

Chicago State's availability: The injury report is quiet on Chicago State's end, with no significant absences flagged heading into this game.

Loyola Marymount's availability: Loyola Marymount is similarly unaffected by injuries, with no notable names missing from their lineup.

Rest and form: Chicago State is on a true back to back with no recovery time between games, while Loyola Marymount comes in with standard preparation and a couple of days off. In the 2025-26 season, Chicago State has struggled badly on the road, managing only a handful of away wins all year, and their recent stretch leans heavily toward losses. Loyola Marymount has been inconsistent lately, dropping several in a row before picking up a win, though they carry a noticeably stronger overall record and play significantly better at home.

Overall: Loyola Marymount holds a clear structural edge here, playing at home with proper rest against a road team that has been one of the worst road squads in the 2025-26 season and is walking in fatigued on a back to back. Chicago State's recent form offers little evidence of a turnaround, while Loyola Marymount, despite their own inconsistency down the stretch, is in a meaningfully better position on nearly every front.

Side Write-Up

Loyola Marymount covers at home against a Chicago State program that is outmatched on both sides of the ball in the 2025-26 season. The Lions shoot the ball noticeably better from the field and from three, their defense holds opponents to fewer points than most Division I programs, and their leading scorer Zion Sensley brings genuine two-way production against a Chicago State bench piece in Mike Price who has struggled with efficiency across every shooting category. The conditions panel only adds to the case: LMU plays at Gersten Pavilion with proper rest while Chicago State arrives on a true back to back, drained, as one of the worst road teams in Division I during the 2025-26 season. Chicago State does force turnovers at a genuinely impressive rate, and that is the strongest real counterargument to this pick, since disrupting LMU's ball movement could limit possessions and keep the game tighter than the talent gap suggests. But Chicago State's defense is among the weakest in all of Division I, their defensive rebounding is about as poor as any team in the country, and a fatigued road squad cannot manufacture enough stops to cover the gap in shooting efficiency and structural depth that separates these two rosters.

Final PickLoyola Marymount Lions

Total Write-Up

The Under is the natural conclusion when one of the least productive offenses in Division I walks into a gym where the defense is better than average and built to limit second-chance points. Chicago State's offense struggles to score and shoots poorly from the field, and they face an LMU defense with solid shot-blocking and competent defensive rebounding that takes away the extra possessions bad offenses often need to stay afloat. Loyola Marymount's offense is capable enough and shoots noticeably better than Chicago State, but their ball movement is average and they give the ball away a bit more freely, which keeps their ceiling in check even at home. Chicago State's fatigue on a back to back further suppresses their already limited offensive output, and their poor road record in the 2025-26 season suggests they will not be pushing a pace that inflates scoring. The legitimate counterargument is that Chicago State forces turnovers at an impressive rate, which could generate easy transition points for either side and push the total up. That concern is real but isolated: turnovers create some fast-break opportunities, yet they cannot overcome Chicago State's shooting inefficiency, the defensive structure LMU brings to this game, and a back-to-back road fatigue factor that all point toward a lower-scoring final.

Final PickUnder

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.