NC State Wolfpack vs Murray State Racers, College Basketball Picks

Thu, Nov 19 · 6:00 PM ET · Baha Mar Convention Center

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from ESPN's own real college basketball power index.

Projected Spread

NCSU -7.5

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

161.5

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Moneyline

NCSU -315

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

NCSUMUR

83.2 (29th)

Points

(32nd) 83.1

How many points does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 75.7 Pts/Game)

46.8% (82nd)

Field Goal %

(134th) 46.0%

How often does the offense make a shot from the field?

(League Avg: 45.1%)

38.8% (13th)

3-Point %

(142nd) 34.8%

How often does the offense make a three point shot?

(League Avg: 34.0%)

76.8% (35th)

Free Throw %

(57th) 75.7%

How often does the offense make a free throw?

(League Avg: 72.3%)

15.6 (T84th)

Assists

(186th) 13.8

How many assists does the offense record per game?

(League Avg: 14.0 Ast/Game)

9.2 (14th)

Turnovers

(T202nd) 11.7

How many turnovers does the offense give away per game?

(League Avg: 11.6 TO/Game)

76.3 (245th)

Points Allowed

(334th) 80.3

How many points does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 74.0 Pts/Game)

24.7 (T165th)

Defensive Rebounds

(162nd) 24.7

How many defensive rebounds does the team grab per game?

(League Avg: 24.5 Reb/Game)

8.1 (T48th)

Steals

(T256th) 6.0

How many steals does the defense record per game?

(League Avg: 6.8 Stl/Game)

3.4 (T177th)

Blocks

(76th) 4.0

How many shots does the defense block per game?

(League Avg: 3.4 Blk/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

NC State's offense: NC State is among the best scoring teams in Division I during the 2025-26 season, with a three-point attack that ranks near the very top of the country. They also take care of the ball better than almost any team in college basketball, which keeps possessions clean and scoring opportunities consistent.

Murray State's offense: Murray State is also a prolific scoring team in the 2025-26 season, putting up points at a rate comparable to NC State, though they do it with a more middling shooting efficiency and an average three-point attack. Their turnover rate is ordinary, giving them no meaningful edge in possession management.

NC State's defense: NC State's defense is clearly the stronger of the two, though it still sits in the bottom half of Division I when it comes to points allowed. Their steals rate is a genuine bright spot, ranking among the better teams in the country at forcing turnovers, but overall they give up points at a rate that keeps games competitive.

Murray State's defense: Murray State's defense is among the more porous in college basketball during the 2025-26 season, allowing opponents to score freely and generating very few takeaways. Their shot-blocking is a relative strength, but it does not come close to offsetting how often they give up buckets.

Overall: NC State holds the more complete profile in the 2025-26 season, with a superior three-point attack and a commanding edge in ball security that Murray State cannot match. That ball-control advantage cuts directly against Murray State's weakness, since a team that already struggles to get stops cannot afford to give NC State extra possessions. NC State's defense is imperfect, but it is meaningfully better than Murray State's, giving them an edge on both sides of the floor.

Scorer Matchup

Each team's real detected leading scorer, and how he has actually played.

Preston Edmead

G · NCSU

Tier

Reliable Scorer

Points/Game

15.9

Rebounds/Game

3.5

Assists/Game

4.4

Field Goal %

40.4%

3-Point %

38.3%

Free Throw %

83.3%

2025-26 season numbers

Roman Domon

G · MUR

Tier

Reliable Scorer

Points/Game

14.1

Rebounds/Game

5.1

Assists/Game

1.6

Field Goal %

47.9%

3-Point %

37.8%

Free Throw %

77.4%

2025-26 season numbers

The Read

NC State's leading scorer: Preston Edmead has been a scoring and playmaking guard for NC State in the 2025-26 season, contributing meaningful assist volume alongside his points in a way that stretches his value beyond pure scoring.

Murray State's leading scorer: Roman Domon has been a reliable interior presence for Murray State in the 2025-26 season, combining his scoring with a rebounding load that reflects a more physical, below-the-arc role.

The efficiency: Domon has shot at a noticeably higher clip from the field than Edmead in the 2025-26 season, suggesting he generates a larger share of his points from higher-percentage looks, while Edmead leans more heavily on volume and free throw accuracy to sustain his output.

Overall: Domon's field goal efficiency gives Murray State a quiet but real advantage at the scorer level on a neutral floor. Edmead's playmaking tilts the balance somewhat by creating for teammates, but as pure scorers, Domon has been the more efficient producer in the 2025-26 season. The edge at the top of the scoring column belongs to Murray State.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

NCSUMUR

Rest

5 days since the last game, real extra rest.

Standard preparation, 2 days rest.

Form

2025-26 record 20-14 (home 11-6, road 6-4)

2025-26 record 20-13 (home 12-3, road 5-7)

InjuryKey Players

None reported

The Read

NC State's availability: The injury report is quiet, with no significant absences flagged heading into this game.

Murray State's availability: Murray State is similarly clean on the injury front, with no meaningful personnel concerns reported.

Rest and form: NC State arrives notably fresher, having had nearly a week between games, while Murray State comes in on a tighter turnaround. Both teams finished the 2025-26 season with identical win totals and closed things out with a pair of losses, though those setbacks came against quality opposition rather than signaling a deeper slump.

Overall: The two sides are evenly matched in terms of roster health and overall record through the 2025-26 season. The clearest edge belongs to NC State on rest, as the extra recovery time is a real advantage in a close matchup. Murray State's form is comparable, so the rest differential is the most meaningful real-world factor separating these two teams heading in.

Side Write-Up

NC State covers on the strength of a matchup profile that works from both ends of the floor. Their three-point attack ranks near the very top of Division I in the 2025-26 season, and they pair that with ball security that is among the best in college basketball, a combination that generates clean possessions and consistent scoring opportunities. Murray State's defense is among the more porous units in the 2025-26 season, giving up points freely and generating almost no takeaways, which means NC State's ball-control edge compounds directly against the one thing Murray State can least afford to surrender: extra possessions. NC State's defense is imperfect and sits in the bottom half of the country in points allowed, but it is still meaningfully better than Murray State's, giving the Wolfpack a real advantage on both sides of the floor. The strongest counterargument is Domon's efficiency edge over Edmead at the scorer level, since a more efficient interior presence can quietly close gaps in a tight game, but that individual edge does not offset NC State's systemic advantages in three-point volume, ball security, and rest. The extra recovery time NC State carries into this neutral-site contest is a real factor in a close matchup, and Murray State's comparable record through the 2025-26 season offers no particular reason to trust their fatigue-affected form at an equivalent level. The complete profile favors NC State covering the spread.

Final PickNC State Wolfpack

Total Write-Up

Both offenses are built to score, and the defensive profiles on both sides make it very hard to see this game staying under any reasonable number. NC State is among the best scoring teams in Division I in the 2025-26 season, with a three-point attack near the very top of the country and turnover discipline that keeps possessions clean and buckets consistent. Murray State matches that output at a comparable scoring rate, so both teams are bringing genuine offensive firepower into a neutral venue. Murray State's defense is one of the softer units in college basketball in the 2025-26 season, allowing opponents to score freely, which means NC State's potent offense is walking into the most favorable defensive environment it could ask for. NC State's defense is better than Murray State's but still sits in the bottom half of Division I in points allowed, so Murray State's own offense has a real path to production as well. The strongest counterargument is that Edmead leans on volume and free throw accuracy rather than elite efficiency, which could mean NC State's offense sputters in stretches, but Murray State's inability to generate takeaways removes the most common source of offensive disruption. Neither team has injury concerns entering the game, so both rosters are fully intact and capable of delivering full offensive output. The combination of two prolific offenses and two defenses that give up points at meaningful rates pushes the total up.

Final PickOver

Written by

VIMB

47,000+

Followers Across All Socials

This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.