Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs DePaul Blue Demons, College Basketball Picks

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

DePaul Blue Demons

Mon, Nov 9 · 9:00 PM ET · Wintrust Arena

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from ESPN's own real college basketball power index.

Projected Spread

DEP -18.5

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

142

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Moneyline

DEP -2045

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

AAMUDEP

72.1 (271st)

Points

(301st) 70.2

How many points does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 75.7 Pts/Game)

43.6% (278th)

Field Goal %

(284th) 43.5%

How often does the offense make a shot from the field?

(League Avg: 45.1%)

34.7% (143rd)

3-Point %

(265th) 32.5%

How often does the offense make a three point shot?

(League Avg: 33.9%)

73.8% (135th)

Free Throw %

(289th) 69.2%

How often does the offense make a free throw?

(League Avg: 72.3%)

11.7 (325th)

Assists

(109th) 15.0

How many assists does the offense record per game?

(League Avg: 14.0 Ast/Game)

11.4 (T172nd)

Turnovers

(T237th) 12.0

How many turnovers does the offense give away per game?

(League Avg: 11.6 TO/Game)

72.5 (137th)

Points Allowed

(T64th) 69.6

How many points does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 74.0 Pts/Game)

24.7 (162nd)

Defensive Rebounds

(297th) 23.0

How many defensive rebounds does the team grab per game?

(League Avg: 24.5 Reb/Game)

6.0 (T247th)

Steals

(T150th) 6.9

How many steals does the defense record per game?

(League Avg: 6.7 Stl/Game)

2.8 (T268th)

Blocks

(T157th) 3.4

How many shots does the defense block per game?

(League Avg: 3.4 Blk/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Alabama A&M's offense: A below-average scoring unit for Division I, Alabama A&M struggles to convert shots at the rim and creates very few assisted baskets, suggesting a heavy reliance on isolation or broken-play attempts. Their free throw shooting and three-point accuracy are modest bright spots, sitting closer to the middle of the pack than the bottom.

DePaul's offense: DePaul scores even less than Alabama A&M in the 2025-26 season and ranks among the weaker offensive teams in Division I across shooting efficiency, three-point accuracy, and free throw shooting. The one genuine strength is ball movement, with an assist rate that sits comfortably in the top third of all Division I programs.

DePaul's defense: DePaul holds opponents to one of the better scoring totals in Division I, making it clearly the stronger defensive team in this matchup. Their ability to generate steals sits in the middle of the pack, and while their defensive rebounding is a soft spot, their shot-blocking is respectable.

Alabama A&M's defense: Alabama A&M allows a middling number of points per game relative to Division I as a whole, which is a passable but unremarkable showing. Their steal and block rates both land in the bottom half of the country, and their defensive rebounding offers no real advantage.

Overall: DePaul's defense is the clearest separator in this matchup, and it runs directly into Alabama A&M's weakness of getting easy baskets and converting at the rim. Alabama A&M's poor ball movement compounds the problem, as DePaul's pressure defense figures to benefit from an opponent that already struggles to create quality shots through organized offense. Neither team is particularly dangerous on the offensive end, but DePaul's defensive structure gives them the more complete profile heading into this game.

Scorer Matchup

Each team's real detected leading scorer, and how he has actually played.

Sami Pissis

G · AAMU

Tier

Role Player

Points/Game

10.4

Rebounds/Game

3.2

Assists/Game

4.0

Field Goal %

39.9%

3-Point %

32.4%

Free Throw %

72.6%

2025-26 season numbers

Kahmare Holmes

G · DEP

Tier

High-Volume Scorer

Points/Game

19.5

Rebounds/Game

5.7

Assists/Game

2.7

Field Goal %

48.3%

3-Point %

35.2%

Free Throw %

65.5%

2025-26 season numbers

The Read

Alabama A&M's leading scorer: Sami Pissis has functioned as a secondary playmaker and role contributor in the 2025-26 season, generating more value through passing and floor time than outright scoring volume. His shooting from the field and from three reflects a player who is selective but not consistently reliable as a shot creator.

DePaul's leading scorer: Kahmare Holmes has been a genuine offensive focal point for DePaul in the 2025-26 season, carrying a heavy usage load while converting at a strong rate from the field and showing real range from three. He rounds out his game with meaningful rebounding for a guard, making him a multi-dimensional threat rather than a pure scorer.

The efficiency: Holmes has scored at a notably higher clip on better shooting percentages, which separates him from Pissis not just in output but in quality of production. Pissis's efficiency marks suggest a player who creates offense within a system rather than driving it independently.

Overall: The gap between these two leading scorers is pronounced, with Holmes operating at a level Pissis has not approached in the 2025-26 season. Holmes brings volume, efficiency, and versatility on the same possession, while Pissis's contributions lean toward facilitation. DePaul holds a clear edge in individual offensive firepower at the top of the roster.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

AAMUDEP

Rest

Standard preparation, 3 days rest.

4 days since the last game, real extra rest.

Form

2025-26 record 18-15 (home 12-5, road 4-8)

2025-26 record 16-16 (home 11-7, road 4-7)

InjuryKey Players

None reported

The Read

Alabama A&M's availability: No significant injuries are on the report for Alabama A&M, so they appear to be heading into this game with a full complement of players available.

DePaul's availability: DePaul's injury report is equally quiet, with no meaningful absences flagged heading into the contest.

Rest and form: DePaul has had a slight edge in preparation time, coming off a longer break than Alabama A&M, who arrives on standard rest. In the 2025-26 season both teams have been inconsistent lately, with Alabama A&M alternating wins and losses across their most recent stretch and DePaul riding back-to-back wins after a rough patch of three straight defeats.

Overall: DePaul holds a modest edge in freshness thanks to the extra rest, and their recent momentum has been building after consecutive wins to close their recent stretch. Alabama A&M has been more up-and-down, though their road record in the 2025-26 season shows they have managed to win away from home. Neither team enters this game in dominant form, making the rest advantage and DePaul's home setting the clearest separating factors.

Side Write-Up

DePaul covers at home because the structural advantages compound rather than cancel. Their defense is the clearest separator in the entire matchup, holding opponents to one of the better scoring totals in Division I in the 2025-26 season, and it lands directly against Alabama A&M's most exposed weakness: an offense that cannot generate assisted baskets, struggles to convert at the rim, and relies on isolation attempts that a disciplined defense is built to contain. Kahmare Holmes widens the gap further, bringing volume, efficiency, and multi-dimensional production that Sami Pissis has not matched in the 2025-26 season, and that individual advantage on the offensive end tilts the scoring equation in DePaul's favor beyond just the defensive numbers. DePaul also enters on more rest than Alabama A&M and carries back-to-back wins into the contest, while Alabama A&M has been alternating wins and losses across their most recent stretch. The strongest counterargument is that Alabama A&M has shown they can win on the road in the 2025-26 season, but a functional road record against a field of opponents does not account for DePaul's defensive structure, their home setting at Wintrust Arena, or the matchup-specific problem Alabama A&M faces running their already-limited offense into a team built to disrupt exactly that style of play.

Final PickDePaul Blue Demons

Total Write-Up

Both offenses point toward a low-scoring game, and DePaul's defense closes the door on whatever scoring hope Alabama A&M might generate. DePaul ranks among the weaker offensive teams in Division I in the 2025-26 season across shooting efficiency, three-point accuracy, and free throw shooting, and Alabama A&M's offense is below-average in its own right with poor rim conversion and almost no creation through ball movement. When two offenses this limited share a court, the natural trajectory for the combined total runs low, and DePaul's defense reinforces that direction by holding opponents to one of the better scoring totals in Division I in the 2025-26 season. Alabama A&M's reliance on isolation and broken-play attempts plays directly into DePaul's strengths, particularly given that DePaul's shot-blocking is respectable and their defensive pressure tends to benefit against opponents who already struggle to create quality looks through organized offense. The strongest counterargument is that DePaul's defensive rebounding is a soft spot, which could extend Alabama A&M possessions and inflate the total on the margins, but Alabama A&M's own shooting limitations mean that extra possessions do not reliably translate into points when their field goal conversion and three-point accuracy are both modest at best.

Final PickUnder

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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