Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs St. Thomas Tommies, College Basketball Picks

Thu, Nov 19 · 8:00 PM ET · Lee & Penny Anderson Arena

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from ESPN's own real college basketball power index.

Projected Spread

STMN -7

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

149

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Moneyline

STMN -285

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

SEMOSTMN

74.5 (T213th)

Points

(49th) 81.8

How many points does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 75.7 Pts/Game)

45.0% (198th)

Field Goal %

(6th) 51.0%

How often does the offense make a shot from the field?

(League Avg: 45.1%)

30.3% (343rd)

3-Point %

(42nd) 36.5%

How often does the offense make a three point shot?

(League Avg: 34.0%)

69.6% (276th)

Free Throw %

(325th) 68.1%

How often does the offense make a free throw?

(League Avg: 72.3%)

12.5 (T287th)

Assists

(T26th) 17.1

How many assists does the offense record per game?

(League Avg: 14.0 Ast/Game)

11.8 (T207th)

Turnovers

(21st) 9.4

How many turnovers does the offense give away per game?

(League Avg: 11.6 TO/Game)

70.6 (86th)

Points Allowed

(114th) 71.6

How many points does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 74.0 Pts/Game)

24.1 (210th)

Defensive Rebounds

(61st) 26.3

How many defensive rebounds does the team grab per game?

(League Avg: 24.5 Reb/Game)

6.8 (166th)

Steals

(T106th) 7.5

How many steals does the defense record per game?

(League Avg: 6.8 Stl/Game)

3.7 (T119th)

Blocks

(T296th) 2.6

How many shots does the defense block per game?

(League Avg: 3.4 Blk/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Southeast Missouri State's offense: A middling scoring unit in the 2025-26 season, the Redhawks struggle particularly from beyond the arc, sitting among the worst three-point shooting teams in all of Division I. They also distribute the ball poorly and get to the free-throw line at a below-average rate.

St. Thomas's offense: One of the sharper offensive units in Division I during the 2025-26 season, the Tommies shoot at a remarkable clip from the field (ranking just outside the top five nationally) and move the ball with purpose, finishing among the best teams in the country in assists and ball security.

St. Thomas's defense: A solid defensive squad in the 2025-26 season, St. Thomas cleans the glass at a noticeably better rate than most teams in Division I and forces a decent number of turnovers, though shot-blocking is a genuine weak spot.

Southeast Missouri State's defense: A quietly respectable defensive group, Southeast Missouri State holds opponents to below-average scoring and generates blocks at a solid rate, though rebounding and creating turnovers are only middling by Division I standards.

Overall: St. Thomas enters this matchup as the more complete team, with one of the sharpest offenses in college basketball colliding directly against a Southeast Missouri State unit that shoots poorly and struggles to generate clean looks. The Redhawks' three-point shooting issues are particularly concerning against a Tommies defense that limits second chances and forces opponents into difficult situations, leaving Southeast Missouri State few ways to keep pace in the 2025-26 season.

Scorer Matchup

Each team's real detected leading scorer, and how he has actually played.

Marqueas Bell

G · SEMO

Tier

Role Player

Points/Game

9.1

Rebounds/Game

5.2

Assists/Game

1.8

Field Goal %

52.5%

3-Point %

30.8%

Free Throw %

73.9%

2025-26 season numbers

Carter Bjerke

F · STMN

Tier

Role Player

Points/Game

9.6

Rebounds/Game

3.3

Assists/Game

1.2

Field Goal %

50.2%

3-Point %

45.6%

Free Throw %

58.8%

2025-26 season numbers

The Read

Southeast Missouri State's leading scorer: Marqueas Bell has been a physical interior presence in the 2025-26 season, contributing nearly as many boards as points and finishing at the rim at a strong clip. He is a grind-it-out scorer rather than a volume threat, doing his damage close to the basket.

St. Thomas's leading scorer: Carter Bjerke has been a perimeter-oriented scorer in the 2025-26 season, connecting on threes at a notably high rate while shooting efficiently from the field overall. He creates less off the glass than Bell but generates his points with range and shot selection.

The efficiency: Bell converts at a higher rate from the field and gets to the line more reliably, while Bjerke's three-point efficiency gives him a path to outscore Bell without matching his volume. Bell's free throw conversion outpaces Bjerke's by a meaningful margin, which matters in close games.

Overall: Neither scorer carries a true go-to-guy workload, so the matchup is tight, but Bjerke's shooting range gives St. Thomas a slight edge in offensive diversity. Bell's rebounding and interior finishing keep Southeast Missouri State competitive in half-court settings where paint touches accumulate. The gap between these two is narrow enough that role-player contributions elsewhere on both rosters will likely decide which leading scorer ends up looking better on the final box score.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

SEMOSTMN

Rest

Standard preparation, 3 days rest.

Form

2025-26 record 20-13 (home 10-5, road 8-7)

2025-26 record 24-10 (home 14-1, road 8-7)

InjuryKey Players

None reported

The Read

Southeast Missouri State's availability: The injury report is quiet, with no meaningful absences to account for heading into the game.

St. Thomas's availability: The injury report is equally quiet on the St. Thomas side, with no notable personnel concerns on record.

Rest and form: Both teams come in on identical rest, so preparation offers no edge either way. Southeast Missouri State has been inconsistent in recent outings, alternating wins and losses, while St. Thomas has also been uneven lately, dropping more games than it has won in its most recent stretch including a postseason loss.

Overall: St. Thomas holds the stronger overall position in the 2025-26 season, built on a genuinely impressive home record that makes their court a difficult place to win. Southeast Missouri State has shown it can win on the road but enters against a team that has been markedly better at home than away all season. The edge belongs to St. Thomas, whose body of work in the 2025-26 season outpaces the visitors even with both teams coming off a bumpy recent run.

Side Write-Up

Analysis in progress

The full write-up publishes once every section above has real data behind it.

Total Write-Up

Analysis in progress

The full write-up publishes once every section above has real data behind it.

Written by

Trevor Nolan

47,000+

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.

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