Utah Mammoth vs Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL Picks

Utah Mammoth

Columbus Blue Jackets

Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET · Nationwide Arena

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from each team's real goal differential in ESPN's NHL standings.

A real model projection could not be built for this matchup yet.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

UTAHCBJ

3.27 (T10th)

Goals

(T18th) 3.00

How many goals does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

27.7 (20th)

Shots

(6th) 29.4

How many shots on goal does the team take per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

11.8% (7th)

Shooting %

(27th) 10.2%

How often do the team's shots on goal go in?

(League Avg: 11.1%)

20.0% (18th)

Power Play %

(22nd) 18.9%

How often does the power play score?

(League Avg: 21.1%)

49.2% (23rd)

Faceoff %

(14th) 50.6%

How often does the team win the faceoff?

(League Avg: 50.0%)

2.93 (T10th)

Goals Allowed

(T16th) 3.06

How many goals does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

26.1 (6th)

Shots Allowed

(22nd) 28.8

How many shots on goal does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

89.3% (T19th)

Save %

(T12th) 89.9%

How often do the team's goalies stop a shot on goal?

(League Avg: 89.5%)

78.1% (19th)

Penalty Kill %

(28th) 76.0%

How often does the penalty kill keep the other team off the board?

(League Avg: 78.9%)

13.6 (24th)

Blocked Shots

(15th) 14.6

How many shots does the team block per game?

(League Avg: 14.2 Blocks/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Mammoth's offense: Despite not being one of the heavier shot-generating teams in the league, Mammoth produces well above the middle of the pack by finishing at one of the higher rates in the league in the 2025-26 season. Their power play is middle of the road, so the offense lives and dies on even-strength efficiency.

Blue Jackets' offense: Blue Jackets generate shots at one of the higher rates in the league but convert at one of the lowest rates, which keeps their actual scoring output below average. Their power play offers little beyond average threat, and their faceoff play is a modest bright spot.

Mammoth's defense: Mammoth is one of the better shot-suppression teams in the league, limiting opposing offenses to fewer looks than almost any other team, which translates to fewer goals allowed than most teams in the 2025-26 season. Their penalty kill is about average, but the structure up front does the heavy lifting.

Blue Jackets' defense: Their goaltender performs above average, which masks a defense that allows shots at a higher rate than most teams and a penalty kill that ranks near the very bottom of the league.

Overall: Mammoth is the more complete team on paper, controlling play defensively while scoring efficiently enough to punish any slip from the other side. The clearest edge comes from Mammoth's shot suppression colliding directly with Blue Jackets' biggest offensive weapon, shot volume, since fewer looks mean fewer chances for a team already struggling to convert. Blue Jackets' poor penalty kill is also a serious concern against any opponent, and Mammoth's ability to draw penalties turns that weakness into a repeating liability.

Goalie Matchup

The two starters in net, and how each has actually played.

Karel Vejmelka

G #70 · UTAH

Tier

Average

Save %

.897

Goals Against Avg

2.75

Record

38-20-3

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

UTAH’s starting goalie isn’t confirmed yet. This is the projected starter.

Jet Greaves

G #73 · CBJ

Tier

High-End

Save %

.908

Goals Against Avg

2.60

Record

26-19-9

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

CBJ’s starting goalie isn’t confirmed yet. This is the projected starter.

The Read

Mammoth's goalie: Karel Vejmelka was a serviceable but middling starter in the 2025-26 season, giving up goals at a rate that left his team exposed on nights when the offense went quiet. He was steady enough to hold the job without standing out as a difference maker.

Blue Jackets' goalie: Jet Greaves was a strong performer in the 2025-26 season, posting notably better numbers across the board and showing he can keep Columbus in games even on difficult nights.

The workload: Both goalies carry a meaningful sample from the 2025-26 season, with Vejmelka having logged considerably more starts than Greaves. Neither start has been officially confirmed, so both remain projected starters at this point.

Overall: Greaves holds a clear edge in net based on his 2025-26 performance, outpacing Vejmelka in both save rate and goals allowed per game. That gap matters here because Columbus is at home and well positioned to let their goaltending advantage do work. If both projected starters take the ice as expected, Mammoth's net is the softer side of this matchup.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

UTAHCBJ

Rest

Second night of a back to back, no rest since the last game.

Standard preparation, 2 days rest.

Form

None reported

2025-26 record 40-30-12 (home 20-13-8, road 20-17-4)

InjuryKey Players

M. Lamoureux (D) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve

D. Severson (D) - SEP 28 · Injured Reserve

The Read

Mammoth's availability: Lamoureux is on injured reserve, leaving the blue line a defenseman short for this road game. The absence registers but does not represent a collapse in depth.

Blue Jackets' availability: Severson is on injured reserve, taking a notable defensive presence off the ice. The Blue Jackets are thinner on the back end as a result but are not without options.

Rest and form: Mammoth arrives on the second night of consecutive games, with the physical toll of playing the night before already in their legs, while Columbus comes in with standard preparation behind them. The Blue Jackets carry a concrete body of work from the 2025-26 season; Mammoth's recent results are all preseason exhibitions and hold no real weight as form evidence.

Overall: Columbus holds the more favorable position heading into this game. The rest advantage is genuine and meaningful, home ice adds further footing, and the Blue Jackets have a full season of results from the 2025-26 season grounding their form. Mammoth faces the combined drag of fatigue, a missing defenseman, and an opponent that has had time to properly prepare.

Side Write-Up

Columbus holds a genuine cluster of in-game advantages that matter more than season-long team ratings in this spot. Jet Greaves was a notably stronger performer than Karel Vejmelka in the 2025-26 season, posting better numbers across every relevant category, and home ice puts him in the most favorable context to deliver. Mammoth arrives on the second night of consecutive games, carrying fatigue into a road environment, while Columbus comes in with standard preparation and the comfort of familiar surroundings. Lamoureux's absence thins the Mammoth blue line on a night when they can least afford reduced depth. Columbus lost Severson on defense as well, but the Blue Jackets are grounded by a full season of competitive results from the 2025-26 season, while Mammoth's recent sample comes entirely from preseason exhibitions that carry no predictive weight. The clearest counterargument is that Mammoth is the more complete team by seasonal construction, suppressing shots and converting at higher rates than Columbus manages. That profile is real, but the back-to-back fatigue, the goaltending gap, and home ice for Columbus represent conditions that push this specific game away from what Mammoth's season-long numbers would otherwise project.

Final PickColumbus Blue Jackets

Total Write-Up

The under case is built on structural friction from both ends of the ice. Mammoth was one of the better shot-suppression teams in the league in the 2025-26 season, limiting opponents to fewer looks than almost any other team, which attacks Columbus directly since the Blue Jackets' offense runs on volume and they already convert at one of the lowest rates in the league. Fewer shots mean fewer of the already-scarce chances Columbus needs to actually score, and Greaves in net for Columbus adds another layer of resistance on the other end. Vejmelka posted middling numbers in the 2025-26 season and gave up goals at a rate that left Utah exposed, but the back-to-back fatigue and a thinned blue line on this road trip limit how much Mammoth can push the pace offensively to exploit that. Neither power play is a game-breaking weapon, with both sitting at average or below, so special teams are unlikely to independently inflate the score. The strongest counterargument is that Columbus allows shots at a higher rate than most teams, which could give Mammoth enough looks to drive the total over on their own efficiency. But Mammoth's shot-suppression structure limits the volume Columbus can generate in return, and a depleted, fatigued Utah side is less likely to generate the sustained offensive pressure needed to push a tight game over the number on the road.

Final PickUnder

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