Seattle Kraken vs Florida Panthers, NHL Picks

Seattle Kraken

Florida Panthers

Sat, Oct 17 · 6:00 PM ET · Amerant Bank Arena

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Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from each team's real goal differential in ESPN's NHL standings.

Projected Moneyline

FLA -110

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

6.2 Goals

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

SEAFLA

2.73 (28th)

Goals

(T18th) 3.00

How many goals does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

25.6 (27th)

Shots

(18th) 28.0

How many shots on goal does the team take per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

10.7% (21st)

Shooting %

(20th) 10.7%

How often do the team's shots on goal go in?

(League Avg: 11.1%)

19.5% (21st)

Power Play %

(19th) 19.6%

How often does the power play score?

(League Avg: 21.1%)

47.8% (27th)

Faceoff %

(29th) 46.7%

How often does the team win the faceoff?

(League Avg: 50.0%)

3.13 (23rd)

Goals Allowed

(28th) 3.34

How many goals does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 3.08 Goals/Game)

29.5 (25th)

Shots Allowed

(10th) 26.8

How many shots on goal does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 27.8 Shots/Game)

90.2% (T8th)

Save %

(27th) 88.5%

How often do the team's goalies stop a shot on goal?

(League Avg: 89.5%)

72.2% (31st)

Penalty Kill %

(9th) 81.0%

How often does the penalty kill keep the other team off the board?

(League Avg: 78.9%)

15.6 (4th)

Blocked Shots

(31st) 12.1

How many shots does the team block per game?

(League Avg: 14.2 Blocks/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Kraken's offense: One of the least productive offenses in the league in the 2025-26 season, Seattle struggles to generate shots and convert them at a meaningful rate. Their power play sits below average, and losing battles at the faceoff dot makes clean offensive-zone entries a rarity.

Panthers' offense: A middle-of-the-pack offense in the 2025-26 season that generates a noticeably higher volume of shots than Seattle and scores at a considerably better rate. Florida's faceoff rate is also among the weakest in the league, so they rely on sustained forecheck pressure rather than possession advantages to manufacture chances.

Kraken's defense: Backed by above-average goaltending and one of the better shot-blocking units in the league in the 2025-26 season, Seattle has the tools to keep games tighter than their goals-allowed mark implies. The glaring vulnerability is a penalty kill that ranks among the worst in the league, turning every minor infraction into a genuine scoring opportunity for the opposition.

Panthers' defense: Florida restricts shot volume reasonably well, ranking in the upper portion of the league in that category in the 2025-26 season, but their goaltending has been among the weakest in the league, consistently converting manageable workloads into goals against. Their penalty kill is a genuine strength, ranking near the top of the league and providing a meaningful edge whenever games turn physical.

Overall: The Panthers present the more complete matchup, scoring at a considerably better rate than Seattle and limiting shot volume on the defensive end. The sharpest collision in this game is Florida's power play going up against a Seattle penalty kill that ranks among the worst in the league, meaning any infraction Seattle surrenders plays directly into the Panthers' hands. Kraken's goaltending is strong enough to keep them in the game, but their inability to generate consistent offense makes it hard to punish Florida's below-average goaltending on the other end.

Goalie Matchup

The two starters in net, and how each has actually played.

Joey Daccord

G #35 · SEA

Tier

Average

Save %

.897

Goals Against Avg

3.03

Record

20-20-6

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

Jacob Markstrom

G #25 · FLA

Tier

Struggling

Save %

.883

Goals Against Avg

3.07

Record

23-19-1

Shutouts

Starts

2025-26 season numbers

The Read

Kraken's goalie: Joey Daccord was a serviceable starter in the 2025-26 season, sitting roughly in the middle of the league without producing standout save numbers. He gave Seattle a reliable enough floor without being the kind of goalie who carries a team through difficult stretches.

Panthers' goalie: Jacob Markstrom had a difficult 2025-26 season, posting save numbers that put him below the league average and well off the level he maintained earlier in his career. Florida has not been getting the goaltending it needs from him.

The workload: Both goalies have accumulated enough starts over the 2025-26 season that the numbers reflect real performance rather than small samples. Both starts are confirmed, so there is no uncertainty about who is in net for either side.

Overall: Daccord holds the clear edge in net, with a meaningfully better save rate and fewer goals allowed per game than Markstrom over the 2025-26 season. Florida's goaltending has been a soft spot all year, and that disparity between the two starters tilts the net advantage firmly toward Seattle.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

SEAFLA

Rest

Standard preparation, 2 days rest.

Form

2025-26 record 34-37-11 (home 19-17-5, road 15-20-6)

2025-26 record 40-38-4 (home 23-15-3, road 17-23-1)

InjuryKey Players

R. Lindgren (D) - OCT 8 · Injured Reserve

J. Melanson (RW) - OCT 3 · Injured Reserve

J. O'Brien (C) - OCT 1 · Injured Reserve

B. Marchand (LW) - OCT 9 · Out

A. Barkov (C) - OCT 6 · Injured Reserve

J. Gadjovich (LW) - SEP 17 · Injured Reserve

The Read

Kraken's availability: Seattle is missing a defenseman and a pair of depth forwards, none of whom are central contributors to the lineup. The injury report is relatively quiet and unlikely to alter how the team functions in any meaningful way.

Panthers' availability: Florida is without Barkov at center and Marchand on the wing, both of whom are among the most important players on the roster. Losing both simultaneously is a notable reduction in offensive firepower and two-way reliability, not a cosmetic absence.

Rest and form: Both teams arrive on identical preparation timelines, so rest is a non-factor. Seattle has been inconsistent across the 2025-26 season but has won more games than it has lost in its most recent stretch, while Florida has dropped more meaningful games than it has won lately despite carrying a stronger overall record in the 2025-26 season.

Overall: Florida holds the better standing in the 2025-26 season and plays in a favorable home environment, but the combined absence of Barkov and Marchand represents a genuine structural problem rather than routine lineup shuffling. Seattle arrives healthier and with slightly better recent momentum, which closes the gap considerably from what Florida's season-long record alone would suggest.

Side Write-Up

The Panthers moneyline rests on a structural advantage that holds even after accounting for Florida's injury news. Florida scores at a considerably better rate than Seattle in the 2025-26 season, generates a noticeably higher volume of shots, and plays in a home environment that compounds that edge. The sharpest edge in the matchup runs directly through Seattle's penalty kill, which ranks among the worst in the league, and Florida's power play is positioned to punish every infraction the Kraken surrender. Seattle's offense is one of the least productive in the league, and their inability to consistently generate chances means they cannot reliably exploit Markstrom's below-average numbers on the other end. The strongest counterargument is the combined absence of Barkov and Marchand, which strips Florida of genuine two-way production and offensive reliability at the same time. That loss matters, but Florida's scoring rate advantage over Seattle is wide enough, and Seattle's offensive limitations severe enough, that the Panthers retain a meaningful structural edge even without their two most important players. Seattle's recent form is slightly better and their injury report is quiet, but those factors close the gap rather than flip it.

Final PickFlorida Panthers

Total Write-Up

The over finds its footing in a combination of goaltending vulnerability and penalty kill exposure that points toward a leaky final score on at least one side of the ice. Markstrom has been below league average throughout the 2025-26 season, and Florida's goaltending has been described as among the weakest in the league, meaning Seattle does not need elite offensive output to find the back of the net at least once or twice. Seattle's penalty kill ranks among the worst in the league, and every minor infraction they take hands Florida a genuine scoring opportunity at even a modest conversion rate. Both teams are on identical rest timelines, so neither side carries a fatigue advantage that would suppress scoring. The strongest counterargument is that Seattle's above-average goaltending and one of the better shot-blocking units in the league could keep Florida's totals down, particularly with Barkov and Marchand out of the lineup reducing the Panthers' offensive ceiling. That defensive structure for Seattle is real, but Markstrom's struggles are consistent enough across the 2025-26 season that Seattle still has paths to scoring, and Florida's power play running against Seattle's penalty kill creates enough high-danger volume to push the combined total past a moderate line.

Final PickOver

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