Anaheim Ducks vs New Jersey Devils, NHL Picks

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

New Jersey checks the most important boxes cleanly heading into this one. Allen was a solid and dependable netminder in the 2025-26 season, posting a noticeably stronger save rate than Dostal, whose track record of leaking goals at a rate that consistently pressured Anaheim to outscore its problems is a real liability on the road. The Devils also benefit from playing at home where their 2025-26 season record has been solid, they carry positive recent form coming off a winning run, and Anaheim is arriving off a loss with a thinned roster, particularly at center where Granlund is day-to-day and the depth is genuinely short. The most direct structural advantage is the collision between Anaheim's penalty kill, one of the weakest in the league, and a Devils power play that operates above the league average, which is a matchup New Jersey can exploit repeatedly over sixty minutes. The Devils also win faceoffs at a comfortable rate against one of the worst faceoff teams in the league, meaning puck possession tilts in New Jersey's favor in the most contested situations. The legitimate counterargument is that the Devils finished the 2025-26 season with shooting efficiency among the very worst in the league, suppressing their goal output close to the bottom of the standings despite pushing a heavy shot volume, which makes their offense genuinely hard to trust. That concern is real, but Dostal's documented inability to close out games cleanly, combined with the structural defensive advantages and the home rest edge, means the Devils have multiple independent paths to a win that do not rely on their own shooting efficiency suddenly improving.

Both of these offenses generate heavy shot volume, both teams lean on quantity over quality, and the structural conditions favor scoring rather than suppression when these two meet. The most direct argument for the over is Dostal's documented track record across a large and authoritative sample in the 2025-26 season, a netminder who never posted a single shutout and whose goals-against rate put consistent pressure on Anaheim to outscore its problems, meaning the Devils are getting a goalie who has demonstrated he will give up runs. The Devils push a shot volume that finished near the top of the league in attempts, and even with their shooting efficiency at the bottom of the league, volume against a leaky goaltender is a credible path to offensive production. On the other side, the Ducks generate one of the higher shot volumes in the league as well, so New Jersey's net will see real pressure even if Allen is the stronger option. Anaheim is short at center and missing pieces across its forward group, which could slow their execution, but their shot generation is a structural tendency that does not disappear entirely based on a depleted lineup. The strongest counterargument is Allen's quality in net for New Jersey, where his numbers from the 2025-26 season include the ability to close out games entirely, which could suppress the Ducks' end of the ledger. That concern is outweighed by the combination of Dostal's vulnerable profile on the other side and the sheer shot volume both clubs bring, which between two high-attempt teams creates enough traffic in front of both nets to push the combined total above the line.