Columbus Blue Jackets vs New York Islanders, NHL Picks

Tue, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM ET · UBS Arena

Model Projection

These numbers come from a power-rating model built on the method Billy Walters lays out in his book Gambler, seeded from each team's real goal differential in ESPN's NHL standings.

Projected Moneyline

CBJ -115

No real live market line available yet.

Projected Total

6.0 Goals

No real live market line available yet.

This projection and current market action are supplementary and do not influence the final qualitative pick and analysis of today's game.

Season stats ordered from most to least relevant. Longer bar, stronger league standing.

CBJNYI

2.53 (29th)

Goals

(T23rd) 2.82

How many goals does the team score per game?

(League Avg: 3.15 Goals/Game)

25.8 (24th)

Shots

(23rd) 25.8

How many shots on goal does the team take per game?

(League Avg: 27.4 Shots/Game)

9.8% (27th)

Shooting %

(19th) 10.9%

How often do the team's shots on goal go in?

(League Avg: 11.5%)

17.5% (27th)

Power Play %

(T28th) 15.4%

How often does the power play score?

(League Avg: 22.4%)

53.2% (6th)

Faceoff %

(2nd) 56.3%

How often does the team win the faceoff?

(League Avg: 50.1%)

3.13 (18th)

Goals Allowed

(10th) 2.94

How many goals does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 3.15 Goals/Game)

28.1 (19th)

Shots Allowed

(26th) 29.1

How many shots on goal does the defense allow per game?

(League Avg: 27.4 Shots/Game)

89.5% (T12th)

Save %

(3rd) 90.8%

How often do the team's goalies stop a shot on goal?

(League Avg: 89.1%)

75.6% (21st)

Penalty Kill %

(4th) 86.7%

How often does the penalty kill keep the other team off the board?

(League Avg: 77.1%)

14.8 (11th)

Blocked Shots

(22nd) 13.5

How many shots does the team block per game?

(League Avg: 14.1 Blocks/Game)

Matchup Breakdown

Blue Jackets' offense: Columbus ranks near the bottom of the league in goals scored and shooting efficiency in the 2026-27 season, struggling to convert even a below-average shot volume into offense. Their power play is among the worst in the league, though winning faceoffs is a genuine strength.

Islanders' offense: New York scores below the league average but is meaningfully more productive than Columbus, with a middle-of-the-pack shooting percentage that keeps them out of the bottom tier. Their power play is also among the worst in the league, while their ability to win faceoffs ranks among the very best in hockey.

Islanders' defense: The Islanders carry one of the best goaltending situations in the league into the 2026-27 season, and their penalty kill ranks among the top few teams in hockey. They surrender more shots than most, but their netminder consistently prevents that from turning into goals.

Blue Jackets' defense: Columbus sits in the middle of the pack overall, with respectable goaltending and above-average shot-blocking. Their penalty kill is a below-average unit, leaving them vulnerable when shorthanded.

Overall: The Islanders hold the clearer advantage across this matchup, with a defensive edge built around strong goaltending and one of the best penalty kills in the league. That penalty kill lines up directly against a Columbus power play that ranks among the worst in hockey, making special-teams situations close to a one-sided proposition. With both offenses below average, the Islanders' ability to protect leads in net and neutralize Columbus's best scoring opportunities gives them the more complete profile.

Goalie Matchup

The two starters in net, and how each has actually played.

Jet Greaves

G #73 · CBJ

Tier

Limited Sample

Save %

.880

Goals Against Avg

3.36

Record

2-6-0

Shutouts

Starts

2026-27 season numbers

Ilya Sorokin

G #30 · NYI

Tier

High-End

Save %

.914

Goals Against Avg

2.57

Record

6-4-2

Shutouts

Starts

2026-27 season numbers

The Read

Blue Jackets' goalie: Jet Greaves has been a leaky presence in the 2026-27 season, surrendering goals at a rate that puts real pressure on Columbus to outscore its problems. His numbers reflect a goalie who has been inconsistent rather than outright bad, but the results have not been there.

Islanders' goalie: Ilya Sorokin has been a steady and dependable presence in the 2026-27 season, limiting goals efficiently and carrying a strong save rate across meaningful playing time. He has not been perfect, but he has been reliably good.

The workload: Sorokin carries a substantially larger body of work in the 2026-27 season, which gives his numbers real weight as a reflection of his actual level. Greaves has far fewer starts, so the read on him is real but incomplete. Both starts are confirmed.

Overall: Sorokin holds a clear and meaningful edge in net based on what each goalie has actually shown in the 2026-27 season. The gap is wide enough that it functions as a structural advantage for the Islanders rather than a marginal one. In a game that could come down to goaltending, New York has the more trustworthy option in the crease.

Team Conditions

Schedule rest, recent form, and the current injury report.

CBJNYI

Rest

Standard preparation, 3 days rest.

Form

2026-27 record 7-8-0 (home 6-3-0, road 1-5-0)

2026-27 record 7-6-4 (home 4-3-2, road 3-3-2)

InjuryKey Players

None reported

M. Maccelli (LW) - NOV 9 · Injured Reserve

M. Barzal (C) - NOV 9 · Injured Reserve

R. Pulock (D) - NOV 1 · Out

C. Ritchie (C) - OCT 26 · Injured Reserve

A. Romanov (D) - OCT 19 · Injured Reserve

The Read

Blue Jackets' availability: The Blue Jackets' injury report is quiet, with no meaningful absences to account for.

Islanders' availability: The Islanders are carrying a significant injury load, highlighted by Barzal being unavailable at center along with multiple other forwards and defensemen on the shelf. That combination of absences across multiple positions leaves their roster noticeably thinned out.

Rest and form: Both clubs come in with equal preparation time, so neither side holds a rest edge. The Blue Jackets have shown some competitive results mixed through their recent stretch in the 2026-27 season, while the Islanders have dropped several straight games to close out their recent slate.

Overall: The Islanders hold home ice but arrive with a depleted roster and a prolonged cold streak through the 2026-27 season. The Blue Jackets are healthy and have shown enough recent resilience to present as a competitive opponent, even though their road record in the 2026-27 season has been a consistent soft spot. On balance, the injury disparity and form gap narrow the advantage between these two teams considerably.

Side Write-Up

The Islanders hold a structural edge in this matchup that starts in net and runs through the special teams breakdown. Ilya Sorokin has been reliably good in the 2026-27 season, carrying a meaningful save rate across a substantial workload, while Jet Greaves has been inconsistent and leaky behind a Columbus team that cannot outscore its problems. The penalty kill alignment is close to one-sided, with New York's top-tier kill unit facing a Columbus power play that ranks among the worst in the league. Even with both offenses operating below league average, the Islanders are the more productive of the two, keeping them out of the bottom tier while Columbus sits near the floor in goals scored and shooting efficiency. The strongest counterargument is the Islanders' injury situation, which is significant, with Barzal unavailable at center and multiple forwards and defensemen missing, leaving their roster genuinely thinned out through a losing streak. That injury load is real and it closes the gap, but the goaltending edge and the special teams mismatch are structural advantages that survive a depleted roster, particularly against a Columbus offense that cannot punish a shorthanded or undermanned defense consistently.

Final PickNew York Islanders

Total Write-Up

Both offenses in the 2026-27 season are operating below league average, and that shared limitation is the foundation of the under. Columbus ranks near the bottom of the league in goals scored and shooting efficiency, converting below-average shot volume at a poor rate, while New York scores below the league average as well and has been sliding through a cold stretch. Sorokin on one end and a middling Greaves on the other creates an asymmetry that suppresses Columbus's output further, since the Islanders have the goaltending to hold a lead while Columbus does not have the firepower to chase one down. Neither team runs a functional power play, with both units among the worst in the league, which removes one of the primary scoring-volume levers from the game entirely. The Islanders' willingness to surrender shots but limit goals fits a game that stays low-scoring rather than opens up. The legitimate counterargument is that Columbus has shown competitive results in recent form in the 2026-27 season, suggesting they are capable of staying in games and potentially pushing the total upward, but a team generating offense at a near-league-worst rate running into Sorokin in a building where UBS Arena removes every environmental variable is not a recipe for a high-event game.

Final PickUnder

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This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not any form of financial or gambling advice. Sports involve high variance therefore always be responsible and manage your risk accordingly.