Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida, UFC Picks

Johnson's unbeaten record against Almeida's three losses is the clearest signal in this fight. Add in the age gap, with Almeida at 38, a threshold where physical wear tends to compound, and Johnson already has two meaningful advantages before the grappling numbers come into play. Johnson attempts takedowns at 1.87 per 15 minutes against Almeida's 0.2, and his submission attempt rate is similarly dominant. With 89 percent of his wins coming by finish compared to Almeida's 71, Johnson has shown he can close fights when opportunities open. The honest counterargument is Almeida's striking accuracy of 69 percent to Johnson's 57, which is a real gap, and Almeida lands more strikes per minute too, so if this stays on the feet Almeida has the tools to make it competitive. That grappling differential is large enough to override it.