Kyoji Horiguchi vs Asu Almabayev, UFC Picks

The case for Almabayev starts on the ground. His takedown rate of 4.74 per 15 minutes dwarfs Horiguchi's 1.67, and he layers submission attempts on top of that at 1.44 per 15 minutes versus a near-zero 0.1 for Horiguchi. That grappling volume gives Almabayev multiple paths to finish or control a 3-round fight. Add a 2-inch reach edge and the age factor once a fighter crosses 34, and the structural advantages tilt clearly toward Almabayev. Both men finish 58% of their wins, so neither is simply a points fighter. The honest counterargument is that Horiguchi lands significantly more strikes per minute at higher accuracy, meaning if he keeps this fight standing he can outwork Almabayev on the feet. The pick still stands because Almabayev has the tools to prevent that, and the grappling gap is too wide to ignore across 3 rounds.