Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa, UFC Picks

The case for Costa starts with how often and how cleanly he lands. A 50 percent striking accuracy against Albazi's 41 percent is a real gap, and Costa's 3.77 strikes landed per minute against Albazi's 2.47 means he is the busier, more efficient striker by a significant margin. Both fighters finish at the same rate, so the finish threat is a wash. Costa also edges Albazi in submission attempts per 15 minutes, adding a secondary threat on the ground. Albazi's record is cleaner at 17-3 versus 17-5, and that is the strongest counterargument here. A better record is a real signal, and if Albazi's grappling comes forward with his 1.18 takedowns per 15 minutes, he could disrupt Costa's striking rhythm. Still, the volume and accuracy edge points toward Costa controlling the action on the feet.