Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev, UFC Picks

Jake Matthews

Tahir Abdullayev

Sat, Nov 21 · 10:00 AM ET · Welterweight · ABHA Arena

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Tale of the Tape

Each fighter's real record, frame and per-fight numbers. The marked side holds the edge on that row.

MATTHEWSABDULLAYEV

23-8-0

Record

20-3-0

Age

an edge only once a fighter is 34 or older

5' 11"

Height

5' 8"

73"

Reach

73"

Orthodox

Stance

3.36

Strikes landed / min

2.56

53%

Striking accuracy

54%

1.36

Takedowns / 15 min

2.07

0.71

Submission attempts / 15 min

61%

Wins by finish

90%

The Read

Abdullayev carries a cleaner record at 20-3 against Matthews' 23-8, and finishes 90% of his wins compared to Matthews' 61%, suggesting he closes fights more decisively when he gets his man in trouble. Matthews has the edge in volume and submission attempts per 15 minutes, so if he can keep this upright and busy he has a path, but Abdullayev's takedown rate and finishing rate point to a fighter who controls where fights go and capitalizes when he gets there.

The Write-Up

The case for Abdullayev starts with his finishing rate. Nine out of ten wins end before the judges get involved, which means he is not just outpointing people but putting them away. His record of 20-3 is also meaningfully cleaner than Matthews' 23-8, and his takedown rate of 2.07 per 15 minutes gives him a tool to drag this wherever he wants it. Matthews is the busier striker at 3.36 strikes per minute and he hunts submissions at a higher rate, so if he keeps the fight standing and rolling on the outside, the cleaner record and higher finishing rate belong to a fighter who would need to be neutralized entirely. That is a real counterargument, but Abdullayev's combination of grappling pressure and finishing efficiency makes him the more reliable pick over three rounds.

Final PickTahir Abdullayev Moneyline

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